Exploring Miami Heat possibilities with two former high picks: Sexton and Bagley
Five former top- 10 NBA draft picks were bandied about in trade speculation last week, with three of them carrying pricey long-term contracts (Damian Lillard, Ben Simmons, CJ McCollum) and two others (Collin Sexton and Marvin Bagley) eligible for restricted free agency in 12 months.
Would any make sense as trade targets for the Heat?
Exploring Sexton and Bagley and the potential Heat fit:
COLLIN SEXTON, CLEVELAND COMBO GUARD
▪ The background: According to a report by Sports Illustrated’s Jeremy Woo, the Cavaliers have begun to explore trade options involving the 22-year-old Sexton, who is extension-eligible this summer and “appears likely to seek a maximum contract.”
The eighth overall pick of the 2018 draft is due $6.3 million in 2021-22 and then can be a restricted free agent in July 2022. He’s eligible for a five-year, $168 million extension this summer.
▪ Pros: Sexton is a gifted offensive player who averaged 24.3 points and 4.4 assists last season while shooting 47.5 percent from the field and 37.1 percent from three-point range. He doesn’t make a ton of threes (98 for 294 in 60 games last season), but he shoots them at a high percentage (38.5 in his career).
He has improved his scoring average every season in the league, from 16.7 to 20.8 to 24.3.
His offensive skill set and athleticism would augment a Heat team that finished 22nd in offensive efficiency this past season and needs more athletic wings who can create their own shot.
At 22, his best years are likely ahead of him.
▪ Cons: The 6-1 guard gives effort defensively but isn’t particularly good on that side of the court; last season, players he defended shot 49.1 percent, compared with 45.1 percent overall. Only six NBA guards who defended as many shots (599) allowed a higher percentage.
His skill set hasn’t translated to winning, though a lot of Cavaliers share blame for that.
And he hasn’t been a particularly dynamic playmaker — either when he started his pro career as a point guard or when he shifted to shooting guard to accommodate the addition of point guard Darius Garland.
His career assist-to-turnover ratio (3.4 to 2.5) is poor, though he pushed his assist average from 3.0 to 4.4 this past season.
So in spite of his talents as a scorer, it’s very much open to debate whether he’s worth $33.6 million per season, which would be the average in a max extension.
▪ How would a trade look hypothetically?: Because he’s on a low salary this season, a deal for Tyler Herro (due $4 million next season) and Precious Achiuwa (due $2.7 million next season) would work within salary cap rules.
Or by including Andre Iguodala — who has a $15 million team option for 2021-22 — along with Herro and Achiuwa and perhaps something else, a trade could be expanded to include either Taurean Prince (due $13 million next season in an expiring contract) or Larry Nance Jr. (due $10.7 million and $9.7 million in the final two years of his contract).
Prince — who can play either forward position — averaged 10.1 points, 4.7 rebounds and shot 41.5 percent on threes for Cleveland last season.
Nance — who can play power forward and center — averaged 9.3 points, 6.7 rebounds and shot 36 percent on threes for the Cavaliers.
If the Heat acquired Sexton but didn’t give him an extension this year and then re-signed him as a restricted free agent in July of 2022, his cap number for 2022-23 would be $19 million, regardless of what Miami paid him.
MARVIN BAGLEY III, SACRAMENTO BIG
▪ The background: If Twitter is any indication, it seems like Bagley is interested in moving to another team.
Bagley recently liked a tweet that suggested he should leave the Kings, and he also reportedly removed “Sacramento King” from his Twitter bio. And in January, Bagley’s father took to Twitter to beg the team to “PLEASE trade Marvin Bagley III ASAP!”
Bagley is due $11.3 million this upcoming season, and he can become a restricted free agent in the summer of 2022.
▪ Pros: This would be a low-risk, high-reward move for the Heat to acquire a player who was selected with the second overall pick in the 2018 draft.
Bagley (6-11 and 235 pounds) hasn’t yet lived up to expectations because of injuries and other circumstances, but he has flashed the potential to fit the mold of a modern-day stretch big who could fit alongside starting center Bam Adebayo.
Bagley, who turned 22 in March, shot just 18.2 percent from three-point range in his second NBA season in 2019-20, but he showed signs of improvement in this area this past season. He shot 39.5 percent on 2.8 three-point attempts per game in 27 games in January and February.
He averaged 14.1 points on 50.4 percent shooting and 7.4 rebounds this past season, and he has averaged 14.5 points and 7.5 rebounds for his NBA career.
Per 36 minutes, Bagley averaged 19.7 points and 10.3 rebounds this past season. That’s comparable to Toronto Raptors All Star forward Pascal Siakam’s per-36 numbers (21.5 points and 7.3 rebounds) from this past season.
In addition, Bagley has just one season remaining on his contract before he can become a restricted free agent in the summer of 2022. So a trade for Bagley this offseason would not require a long-term commitment to him.
▪ Cons: Bagley comes with injury concerns; he played in 118 games through his first three NBA seasons and 56 games during the past two seasons. Injuries that have forced Bagley to miss time include a sprained left knee, fractured right thumb, right foot sprain and a broken left hand.
Because of consistent injury issues, Bagley has never averaged more than 26 minutes per game in a single season during his young NBA career.
The Heat accepted the injury risk that came with trading for Victor Oladipo this past season, and Miami would have to take on a similar risk if it makes a move for Bagley.
▪ How would a trade look hypothetically?: With Bagley earning $11.3 million next season, the Kings would be able to take back up to $16.3 million in salaries if it waited until August or later to trade him.
The Heat could make a trade work within salary cap rules by including Iguodala, who has a $15 million team option in his contract for next season. But the Kings would likely want a younger player in return for Bagley, and Achiuwa or forward KZ Okapala are options, with Achiuwa potentially holding more appeal to the Kings.
If that’s not enough for the Kings (and it probably wouldn’t be), the Heat could also include a pick swap opportunity or its 2028 first-round pick in the deal.
But in order to make a deal including Achiuwa/Okpala and Iguodala work within cap rules, the Kings would need to also include a player on a minimum salary in the deal.
Coming tomorrow: A look at a potential Heat fit with Lillard, McCollum and Simmons.
This story was originally published June 28, 2021 at 2:11 PM.
