Heat-Bucks playoff preview: The important questions that will be answered in the series
The answers to these important questions will help determine the winner of the Miami Heat’s first-round playoff series against the Milwaukee Bucks. Game 1 is Saturday at 2 p.m. at Fiserv Forum, and will be televised on ESPN and Bally Sports Sun:
▪ How will Playoff Jimmy change the equation? A lot, probably.
The Bucks won the regular-season series 2-1 over the Heat, but Jimmy Butler did not play in any of the three games. That’s obviously important because Butler is the Heat’s best player.
Miami finished the regular season with a 7-13 record in games that Butler missed and a 33-19 record when he played. The Heat outscored opponents by 5.2 points per 100 possessions when Butler was on the court, and opponents outscored the Heat by 5.9 points per 100 possessions when he wasn’t on the court during the regular season for an off/court net rating differential of 11.1 points.
Butler was also very good in last year’s second-round matchup against the Bucks, averaging a team-high 23.4 points while shooting 53.2 percent from the field, 5 of 11 on threes and 85.2 percent on 10.8 free-throw attempts per game in the series. He also averaged 5.8 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 1.8 steals.
▪ Will the Heat’s wall again work to slow Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo? Miami’s defensive approach against the two-time reigning MVP is no secret. The Heat used multiple defenders to wall off the paint and limit his opportunities around the basket last year.
Miami will use a similar strategy in this year’s series against Antetokounmpo, who averaged the second-most paint points this regular season at 16.7 per game.
Last year, the Heat started games with Jae Crowder on Antetokounmpo (6-11, 242 pounds). But Bam Adebayo also spent a chunk of time as Antetokounmpo’s primary defender, with Butler and Andre Iguodala also taking on the task during stretches.
Adebayo, Butler and Iguodala will again be part of the Heat’s defensive plan against Antetokounmpo. Crowder won’t be since he left to join the Phoenix Suns in free agency.
But the Heat now has veteran Trevor Ariza, who’s also expected to spend a lot of time guarding Antetokounmpo.
“They’re very disciplined defensively and they just keep bringing crowds. They don’t stop,” Antetokounmpo said of Heat. “That’s why I say they’re disciplined. On post-ups, they double team. In early transition, they’re building a crowd in front of me. They try to strip the ball. Whenever I spin, they’re right there. They try to be physical. They just try to make everything tough.”
Also worth watching: The Bucks have been working to get the ball to Antetokounmpo in different spots on the court instead of simply isolating him at the top of the three-point line, where it’s easier to build a wall in front of him. The addition of Jrue Holiday and return of Khris Middleton has helped take some of the on-ball pressure off Antetokounmpo.
One effective Heat strategy last year was to make Antetokounmpo earn his points at the free-throw line whenever he did get near the basket. Antetokounmpo shot just 53.7 percent on 10.3 free-throw attempts per game during last season’s playoff series against Miami.
▪ Will the Bucks’ improved three-point shooting be the difference in the series? During last season’s 4-1 playoff series win over Milwaukee, Miami made 15 threes per game on 37.3 percent shooting from deep. The Bucks hit 10.8 threes per game on 32.7 percent shooting long range. This proved to be one of the Heat’s biggest advantages, especially with both teams among the NBA’s best at protecting the paint.
But this Heat edge didn’t come as a surprise last season, as it finished last regular season with the NBA’s second-best three-point percentage (37.9). The Bucks ranked 18th in this category at 35.5 percent.
This season, it’s the reverse. The Bucks finished the regular season with the league’s fifth-best three-point percentage (38.9) and the Heat ranked 19th at 35.8 percent.
The additions of Bryn Forbes (2.2 made threes on 45.2 percent shooting this season), Holiday (1.9 made threes on 39.2 percent shooting), Bobby Portis (1.1 made threes on 47.1 percent shooting) and P.J. Tucker (0.7 made threes on 39.4 percent shooting) have helped Milwaukee become a better three-point shooting team.
With the Heat focused on walling off the paint against Antetokounmpo, the three-point looks will be there for the Bucks.
But Milwaukee’s defense also tends to give up a large amount of three-point attempts. So outside shooting will be important for the Heat in this series, too.
▪ How will Adebayo handle the Bucks’ different coverages? Not many opponents were willing to play off of Adebayo when he had the ball this season because of his improved midrange jumper. But the Bucks used that defensive approach against Adebayo in the teams’ final regular-season matchup last week. The result: Adebayo finished with five points on 2-of-9 shooting and eight assists.
Milwaukee will likely again try this type of coverage against Adebayo in the series, as the Bucks’ defense focuses on protecting the paint and taking away some of the Heat’s cutting opportunities around the basket. If the Bucks continue to play off of Adebayo, there will be open midrange jumpers that he’ll have to take and make.
“Usually when I get covered a different way, I usually go back a couple days after to watch film,” Adebayo said. “We have a couple days right now to watch film, lock in and really learn how to beat the coverage.”
▪ Will the fourth quarter again belong to the Heat? Miami finished last year’s playoffs with the top fourth-quarter net rating (plus-19.6) and lost just seven of the 21 fourth quarters it played during last year’s postseason push. The Heat outscored the Bucks by 27 points in the final period of Game 3 of their series last year.
But the Heat recorded the NBA’s third-worst fourth-quarter net rating (minus-5.3) this regular season. Miami is the only playoff team in the bottom seven in this category.
The Heat actually wasn’t good in the fourth quarter last regular season either, when it finished with a fourth-quarter net rating of minus-5.8. But then Miami turned into an elite fourth-quarter team in the playoffs.
Let’s see if the Heat can make that leap again this year.
▪ Can Goran Dragic elevate his game in the playoffs? Dragic was an important part of the Heat’s playoff run last season. The veteran guard averaged 19.8 points on 43.8 percent shooting, 4.8 rebounds and 4.4 assists in the Heat’s second-round playoff series against Milwaukee.
Dragic’s numbers this season have dipped as he has dealt with multiple injuries that moved him in and out of the lineup. He averaged 13.4 points on 43.2 percent shooting in the regular season. Dragic, 35, was used as a starter in last year’s playoffs, but he’s expected to remain in a bench role this postseason. He’s still an important part of the Heat’s winning formula.
“This year for him was just about managing the schedule, managing his body and just getting physically right and in rhythm by the end,” coach Erik Spoelstra said of Dragic. “That’s when he was playing his best basketball, I think the last handful of weeks.”
▪ Will the Heat again make non-rim shots at an elite rate? The Bucks are one of the best teams in the NBA at limiting clean opportunities at the rim and that forces opponents to score from other areas of the court.
That’s what the Heat did in last season’s playoff series against the Bucks, shooting an efficient 49.3 percent on non-rim paint opportunities, 45.8 percent on midrange jumpers and 40.3 percent on above the break threes.
With that same defensive scheme largely in place for Milwaukee, even after introducing more switching and zone concepts this season, the Heat needs to again be efficient from those spots on the court to eliminate the Bucks this year.
▪ Can the Heat get to its most successful lineup often enough against the Bucks? Miami outscored opponents by 43 points in the 42 minutes that the five-man combination of Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, Butler, Ariza and Adebayo was on the court together in the regular season.
That’s the top plus/minus among any Heat lineup this season, and this group did it in just 42 minutes.
▪ Is there a surprise wrinkle coming to the Heat’s rotation? Miami seemed to settle on a nine-man rotation in the final weeks of the regular season with a starting lineup of Kendrick Nunn, Robinson, Butler, Ariza and Adebayo and a bench rotation of Dragic, Herro, Iguodala and Dewayne Dedmon.
But Spoelstra has proven in the past that he’s not afraid to change things up, even in the playoffs.
Last postseason, the Heat outscored the Bucks by 23.4 points per 100 possessions in the 50 minutes that center Kelly Olynyk was on the court. The spacing Olynyk provided with his three-point shooting proved to be problematic for the Bucks’ defense.
Olynyk has since been traded to the Houston Rockets. But the Heat did recently acquire another stretch big, Nemanja Bjelica. Will there be Bjelica minutes during this year’s series? Stay tuned.
▪ Will home-court advantage be a factor? There was no home-court advantage when the Heat and Bucks faced off last postseason in the neutral site that was the Walt Disney World bubble. But the Bucks were rewarded this year for finishing as the higher seed over the Heat, as four of the potential seven games will be played in Milwaukee.
The Bucks will host the first two games at Fiserv Forum before the series moves to AmericanAirlines Arena for Game 3 and 4. If necessary, Games 5 and 7 will be played at Fiserv Forum and Game 6 will take place at AmericanAirlines Arena.
But there will be a reduced capacity in both arenas because of COVID-19 guidelines.
The Heat is increasing capacity at AmericanAirlines Arena for its series against the Bucks to 8,600 or 43 percent of its usual capacity. The Bucks are increasing capacity at Fiserv Forum to 9,000 or 50 percent capacity.
