What data shows about how Heat’s Adebayo and teammates have defended Antetokounmpo
Bam Adebayo and Giannis Antetokounmpo are friends, share the same agent and work out together during the summer. They know each other’s games intimately and likely will be matched up against each other during stretches of this Heat-Milwaukee Bucks first-round playoff series.
So does Adebayo, who’s line to finish in the top five in Defensive Player of the Year balloting, defend the two-time MVP better than most?
Yes. But even though Antetokounmpo is less efficient when Adebayo guards him, he’s still productive.
Here’s how the matchup has broken down the past three years when Adebayo defended Antetokounmpo:
Exhibit 1: Antetokounmpo shot 7 for 18 against Adebayo (38.9 percent) this season when Adebayo was defending him, including 2 for 8 on three pointers. Adebayo blocked one shot and Antetokounmpo committed two turnovers in those 13 minutes when the Bucks had the ball and Adebayo was defending him.
Exhibit 2: In last season’s playoffs, Antetokounmpo shot 7 for 13 against Adebayo (53.8 percent), including 1 for 4 on threes with one shot blocked and three turnovers.
Exhibit 3: During the regular season last year, Antetokounmpo shot 12 for 28 overall (42.9 percent) against Adebayo but 0 for 7 on threes and had one shot blocked and committed three turnovers.
Exhibit 4: The previous season (2018-19) , Antetokounmpo was 9 for 15 against Adebayo (60 percent) and 1 for 4 on threes, while committing four turnovers.
So here are the final numbers for Antetokounmpo on Adebayo over the past three regular seasons and their playoff meeting: The Bucks superstar has shot 47.3 percent from the field against Adebayo, much worse than the 56 percent that he has shot overall during those three seasons.
On threes, Antetokounmpo is just 4 for 23 against Adebayo over those three years (17 percent), compared with the 29 percent he has shot on threes overall during that time frame.
So when Adebayo forces the Bucks star to take threes, the results have been very good for Miami. Adebayo also forces him into mistakes — 12 turnovers during the past three years.
“They know how to play Giannis because, to me, Bam is the perfect matchup for him,” TNT’s Reggie Miller said. “Because he can pick him up full, he can stay with him as he drives. He has the length to disrupt some of those shots.”
But ESPN’s Kendrick Perkins said the Heat will miss having Jae Crowder, at times, defend Antetokounmpo, who shot 9 for 22 against Crowder in last year’s playoff series.
How has Adebayo done on offense when Antetokounmpo defends him?
Adebayo hasn’t attempted many shots against him. Adebayo was 2 for 2 against the Bucks star this season (3 for 4 on free throws); 2 for 4 in last year’s playoff series (and 6 for 6 on free throws); and 2 for 8 the previous two seasons.
▪ We will likely see Adebayo, Trevor Ariza, Jimmy Butler, Andre Iguodala and Dewayne Dedmon all defend Antetokounmpo.
Antetokounmpo shot 5 for 9 when Butler defended him in last year’s playoffs (Butler missed all three Bucks games this season). He shot 4 for 6 when Iguodala defended him in that playoff series. Antetokounmpo has made 7 of his last 10 shots when Ariza has defended him but is 0 for 6 with Dedmon on him over the past four years.
▪ The Heat has the option of opening with Ariza on Antetokounmpo to keep Adebayo out of early foul trouble, and then moving Adebayo onto him later.
In that scenario, Brook Lopez could pull Adebayo out to the three-point line. Keep in mind that during last year’s playoffs, Lopez shot 16 for 24 against Adebayo, including 7 for 12 on threes, but the Heat won anyway.
Bucks forward Khris Middleton seems bothered by Adebayo’s length; he shot just 3 for 13 on Adebayo in the playoffs last year.
This season, Adebayo shut down a bunch of top Eastern Conference players who are playing past the regular season. The Knicks’ Julius Randle shot 7 for 22 when Adebayo was defending him this season; Brooklyn’s Kyrie Irving 4 for 14, Atlanta’s John Collins 2 for 11, Washington’s Bradley Beal 1 for 7 and Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid 1 for 3.
When Adebayo switched onto guards, he allowed backcourt players to shoot just 39 percent this season, including 33 percent on three-pointers. That’s exceptional for a man his size.
Besides the aforementioned Irving and Beal numbers, Steph Curry was 1 for 5, Jrue Holiday 2 for 5 and Trae Young 1 for 3. Kevin Durant was 5 for 11 on Adebayo.
A HEAT PICK
ESPN’s Tim Legler, perhaps the network’s best studio analyst, predicts the Heat will eliminate the Bucks.
“I don’t know how much of a shocker it’s going to be because of the team we’re talking about, but I think the Miami Heat over the Bucks,” he said when asked by Mike Greenberg for a first-round upset.
“That’s going to happen in the first round. It’s a six-game differential in terms of wins you’re talking about. A six [seed] over a three. But the Miami Heat went to the Finals last year. This is a team that won’t be fazed by anything. They also have the Bucks’ number in recent memory.
“The Miami Heat are playing their best basketball at the right time. They’ve got great balance. They can beat you multiple ways, slow or fast. They can beat you from the three point line, or they can beat you by winning games defensively. No team switches defense more effectively than the Heat. It’s the kind of thing you need to do against Giannis Antetokounmpo…. I think there’s going to be a few upsets in the first round...But I really like Miami moving on past the first round.”
This story was originally published May 20, 2021 at 1:36 PM.
