Takeaways from Heat’s loss to Bucks, without Jimmy Butler. And what it means for playoff race
Five takeaways from the Jimmy Butler-less Miami Heat’s 122-108 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks (46-25) on Saturday night at Fiserv Forum, which ended the Heat’s four-game winning streak:
The Heat fell to sixth place in the Eastern Conference standings, and a first-round playoff series between Miami and Milwaukee is now a more likely possibility.
With the New York Knicks defeating the Charlotte Hornets and the Heat losing on Saturday, New York jumped Miami in the standings.
The Heat (39-32) now stands in sixth place in the East with just one game left on its schedule — Sunday night against the Pistons in Detroit. Miami is one game behind the fifth-place Atlanta Hawks (40-31) and fourth-place Knicks (40-31).
The Knicks are ahead of the Hawks because they own the head-to-head tiebreaker over Atlanta after winning the season series.
If the current standings hold, the sixth-place Heat would open the playoffs with a first-round series against the third-place Bucks in Milwaukee. The fifth-seeded Heat eliminated the top-seeded Bucks in the second round of the playoffs in five games last season in the Walt Disney World bubble.
But the standings could still change, with all 30 NBA teams in action on the final day of the regular season Sunday. After Saturday’s loss in Milwaukee, finishing in fourth place is no longer a possibility for the Heat but moving up to fifth place is not out of the question.
However, there’s a chance the Heat could know its final place in the East standings before its 8 p.m. regular-season finale. If the Knicks defeat the Boston Celtics in a Sunday afternoon game scheduled to begin at 1 p.m., the 4-5-6 order would be set with New York locked into No. 4, Atlanta locked into No. 5 and the Heat locked into No. 6 regardless of how the Hawks and Heat fare in the final game of their regular seasons.
To move up to fifth place, the Heat needs to earn a win over the Pistons and the Knicks need to lose to the Celtics on Sunday.
The list of possible first-round playoff opponents for the Heat includes the Bucks, Hawks and Nets.
There’s still a chance Milwaukee can move past Brooklyn in the standings if the Nets lose to the Cleveland Cavaliers (scheduled to start at 7 p.m.) and the Bucks defeat the Chicago Bulls (scheduled to start at 9 p.m.) on Sunday, which would push the Bucks into second place and the Nets into third place in the East. This is the only scenario that the Heat would face the Nets in the first round, if Miami closes as the No. 6 seed.
To meet the Hawks in the first round, the Heat has to move up to the No. 5 seed.
The Heat played Saturday’s important game without its best player.
Butler surfaced on the afternoon injury report and was ruled out less than an hour before tip-off because of lower back tightness.
The back has been an issue that has bothered Butler in recent days, according to a source, but the injury isn’t expected to linger into the playoffs with at least five days off between the Heat’s regular-season finale on Sunday and the start of its playoff run on either May 22 or 23.
Butler’s status for Sunday night’s matchup against the Pistons is still unknown. Saturday marked the 19th game that Butler has missed this season.
The Heat has struggled without Butler this season, falling to 6-13 in games that he hasn’t been available for. Miami is 33-19 when Butler has been available.
Kendrick Nunn, who was listed as questionable for Saturday’s game because of left calf soreness, played and started against the Bucks. Nunn finished with a game-high and season-high 31 points on 13-of-18 shooting.
It marked the fourth game that Nunn has finished with 30 or more points in during his NBA career.
“I felt great. I was able to go and that’s what I did tonight,” Nunn said of playing despite the calf soreness. “Just give it my all every time I’m on the floor and available.”
The Heat was without three players on Saturday: Butler, Victor Oladipo (season-ending knee surgery) and recently signed Omer Yurtseven.
Without Butler, the Heat’s defense struggled to slow the Bucks’ offense, especially in the first half.
Milwaukee, which entered with the NBA’s fourth-best offensive rating this season, scored 122 points on 53.5 percent shooting from the field, 13-of-35 (37.1 percent) shooting on threes and 17-of-24 shooting from the foul line.
Seven Bucks players finished with double-digit points. Milwaukee star and MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo finished with 15 points on 6-of-12 shooting, nine rebounds and four assists.
The Bucks were dominant from the start, recording 44 points on 17-of-24 (70.8 percent) shooting in the first quarter to end the period with a 16-point lead. Milwaukee scored 22 paint points in the opening quarter.
The Bucks finished the first half with 70 points on 62.2 percent shooting.
“I would say they jumped us in the first half and really it was in so many different areas where they were hurting us off the dribble, in the post, cuts,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. “Just an overall assault on the paint.”
The Heat did not have Butler, who leads the NBA in steals and is considered one of the NBA’s top defenders, so some of Saturday’s defensive struggles are understandable.
But the performance was also somewhat concerning because Miami’s defense has been trending in the wrong direction recently. The Heat entered with the NBA’s ninth-best defensive rating (allowing 110.6 points per 100 possessions) and has featured a top-10 defense for most of the season, but Miami has posted the league’s seventh-worst defensive rating (allowing 114.3 points per 100 possession) since the start of April.
What has been the difference with the Heat’s defense recently? Miami entered allowing 21.6 makes per game from inside the paint on 61.7 percent shooting since the start of April, compared to 20.1 makes from inside the paint on 54.5 percent shooting through the first three months of the season up to the end of March.
That negative trend continued for the Heat on Saturday, when the Bucks totaled 50 paint points on 65.8 percent shooting. Milwaukee scored 36 paint points on 18-of-24 shooting in the first half.
Nemanja Bjelica, who has been out of the Heat’s rotation for the past month, started in place of the injured Butler.
It marked Bjelica’s first start as a member of the Heat since the Sacramento Kings dealt the veteran forward to Miami at the trade deadline on March 25. He played in just one of the Heat’s previous 14 games and received six consecutive DNP-CDs (did not play, coach’s decision) before getting the start Saturday.
Bjelica, 33, finished with 11 points on 3-of-5 shooting from deep, four rebounds and four assists in 21 minutes.
“I thought his minutes were important because he has been on my radar,” Spoelstra said. “I’ve just been trying to stabilize things the last few weeks. But he has kept himself ready. The entire team has noticed, the coaching staff has noticed. I thought he had some good minutes tonight.”
By starting Bjelica, the Heat’s bench rotation of Goran Dragic, Dewayne Dedmon, Andre Iguodala and Tyler Herro that has worked well recently remained intact against the Bucks.
The Heat attempted a lot of threes on Saturday. As a result, Miami tied a single-game franchise record with 22 made threes in the double-digit loss.
The Bucks prioritize protecting the paint and tend to give up more three-point looks than most teams around the league. Milwaukee entered allowing the third-most three-point attempts in the NBA at 38.5 per game this season.
The Heat responded by taking 49 threes and making 22 of them. It marked just the sixth game in franchise history that Miami has finished with 20 or more made threes in.
The Heat also made 22 threes in a win over the Orlando Magic on March 4, 2020.
Duncan Robinson (5 of 12 on threes), Dragic (5 of 9) and Nunn (4 of 5) combined to hit 14 of the Heat’s 22 threes on Saturday.
But without Butler’s ability to attack the paint, the Heat’s offense was one-dimensional against the Bucks. Miami was outscored 50-34 inside the paint and finished just 18 of 47 (38.3 percent) on two-point shots.
The Heat also shot just eight free throws against the Bucks. Miami entered averaging 21.3 free-throw attempts per game this season.
“Offensively, we made threes, but we also didn’t necessarily get our paint opportunities, which is probably why you saw the low score,” Spoelstra said.
Bam Adebayo finished with a season-low five points on 2-of-9 shooting, eight rebounds and eight assists for the Heat.
This story was originally published May 15, 2021 at 10:25 PM.
