Duncan Robinson’s game and confidence are growing. What that means for Robinson and Heat
Duncan Robinson insists many don’t know who Duncan Robinson is when he’s off the basketball court.
“He’s self-deprecating in a way,” Robinson’s close friend Davis Reid said. “If you ask him what it’s like to be out to dinner in Miami, he’ll tell you that he doesn’t get stopped or no one asks for pictures or that he doesn’t get noticed. That’s obviously not true. Of course it happens. But I think it’s so funny. It’s almost like he downplays it all so much.”
But Robinson, who turns 27 on Thursday, has learned not to downplay his ability when he’s on the court. That has been an important part of the Miami Heat forward’s rapid rise to become one of the NBA’s best three-point shooters.
After setting a Heat record for threes made (270) in his first full NBA season last year, Robinson entered Tuesday ranked fourth in the NBA with 202 made threes while shooting 40.9 percent on 8.5 three-point attempts per game this season. He made his 200th three during Monday’s win over the Houston Rockets to become the first player in Heat history to reach that total twice.
“I think the situation that has helped is that I have last year underneath my belt,” Robinson said of his improved confidence, with the Heat beginning a two-game trip Wednesday against the San Antonio Spurs. “I’ve built up some equity at least in terms of my reputation, a little bit. Even if I go through stretches where it’s not going in, I think that there’s a collective understanding, at least within the organization, that that’s the anomaly and that it’s not the reverse.”
Robinson’s case of impostor syndrome — the thinking that you have only succeeded because of luck, and not because of your talent or qualifications — has been well-chronicled. After going undrafted out of Michigan in 2018, he didn’t immediately believe he could become one of the NBA’s top shooters.
Robinson spent most of his rookie season in the G League.
Then Robinson’s shooting numbers skyrocketed in his second NBA season, when he not only set a Heat record for threes made but also joined Golden State’s Stephen Curry as the only two players in league history to finish a season with 270 or more made threes while shooting better than 44 percent from deep. Robinson became the ultimate floor spacer for the Heat’s offense, as he posted a team-best plus/minus of plus-351 and earned a full-time starting role last regular season.
“It’s so important to have reference points in your career,” said Reid, who met Robinson as classmates at Phillips Exeter Academy in New Hampshire in 2013. “Like being able to look back at a period and kind of confirm to yourself that I am capable. We hope that there are seasons that are above 44 percent. But forever you can look back on that year as a reference point of like, ‘I am fully capable,’ in case you ever forget.”
THE MIND-SET
When Robinson’s three-point shooting percentage for this season fell to 38.2 percent — low by his standards — after a 2-of-5 performance from deep in a March 23 home loss to the Phoenix Suns, he admits some doubt again began to creep into his mind. He had made just 13 of his last 42 three-point shot attempts (31 percent) at that point.
“When the ball is not going in, of course you doubt or your mind starts to wonder why and you go down these rabbit holes of coming up with different scenarios and potential reasons as to why,” Robinson said.
“It’s not about living in this ignorant blissful world of like, ‘Oh, I’ll just focus on the results and water will find its level.’ I think a lot of that gets kind of boiled down in quotes and sound bites in postgame media or whatever. But really, it’s about the moments of doubt and it’s about the moment of struggle and it’s about learning to wrestle and deal with it.”
Robinson’s solution? Keep shooting because he was actually missing some clean looks.
“It’s more so just about developing the resolve and trust that that’s what I’m out there to do,” Robinson said. “Obviously, making them helps more. But in a lot of cases, just taking them is important for our offense in that you just gotta be willing during those stretches where shots aren’t going in, not get too caught up in results.”
The results have been very positive lately, as Robinson has shot 49.2 percent (59 of 120) from deep in the past 14 games since the March 25 trade deadline to get his three-point percentage over 40 percent again. The spacing he provides for the Heat’s offense is a key ingredient for the unit’s success.
Robinson has posted a team-best plus/minus of plus-108 during this 14-game stretch. Also, the Heat has scored 119.2 points per 100 possessions with Robinson on the court during this span, compared to 97.6 points per 100 possessions when he has been on the bench.
“I think he stayed with the process. His work never really changed,” coach Erik Spoelstra said of Robinson’s recent three-point uptick. “I didn’t see it change from whether the ball was going in or not.”
ADJUSTING TO ADJUSTMENTS
Confidence and persistence have been important aspects of Robinson’s evolution.
Spoelstra needed to implore Robinson to hunt three-point shot attempts at times in the past. Now, Robinson hunts for those opportunities on his own.
“His confidence is at another level and it comes from the coaching staff continuing to tell him to shoot,” said Reid, who also serves as Robinson’s co-host on their podcast titled “The Long Shot.” “The leaders of the team, Jimmy [Butler], Goran [Dragic] and [Udonis Haslem], they continue to tell him to shoot and that he’s the best shooter in the world. When you’re being instilled with that confidence from guys that you not only look up to, but are kind of like the veteran presence on your team, I think it’s easy to eventually over time even with impostor syndrome start to believe it a little bit more.”
But with Robinson past the days of needing consistent encouragement from his coaches and teammates to keep shooting, Butler’s attention has turned to other aspects of Robinson’s game.
“Last year, I think he understood the situation that I kind of maybe needed to hear those words of encouragement of being aggressive and letting it fly and shooting,” Robinson said of Butler. “Where this year, it has kind of changed. I don’t want to say that that box is checked, but he knows that I’m going to go out and be aggressive every night. Now I think it has kind of moved on toward let’s take this to another level. Let’s not just be complacent being a floor spacer who’s a liability on defense. But he’s just going to continue to hold me accountable in all aspects of my game.”
And in true Butler style, Robinson said “Jimmy always tells it like it is” and “doesn’t mince words.”
“I think if you were a fly on the wall and listened to his conversations toward me, people would probably look sideways,” Robinson said with a laugh. “But I know what it is and I take it in a productive way in that I just try to apply it and improve.”
Robinson has put in a lot of work behind the scenes on the practice court and in the film room to incorporate various counters to the different coverages he has seen this season.
The dribble handoff with center Bam Adebayo that generated so many of Robinson’s three-point opportunities last season has not been as effective this season, with opponents not allowing Adebayo and Robinson to get to that action as cleanly.
Robinson has scored on 34 percent of his handoff opportunities this season, which ranks in the 70th percentile in the NBA. He scored on 47 percent of his handoffs last season, which ranked in the 98th percentile in the league.
“I’ve seen a lot of different coverages and seen different ways how teams have tried to guard me,” Robinson said. “A lot of it was in the playoffs last year in that for the first time teams were really being aggressive and physical in trying to take away what I was trying to do. This year has been more of the same.
“As a result, it has just forced me to adapt, which I think is unequivocally a positive thing. It’s a compliment that somebody is trying to take away what you can do. But then the challenge becomes how can you still be effective?”
Robinson has found ways to take advantage of teams overplaying him at the three-point line with timely cuts, attacks off the dribble and sharp passes when he attracts multiple defenders.
WHAT’S NEXT?
Heat teammates have been impressed by Robinson’s ongoing evolution and development.
“I’m really enjoying the way he’s handling the scouting report,” veteran Andre Iguodala said. “... It’s normally Bam handing it to Duncan for a score, and that was one of the highest connections in the league per possession. But when I started seeing Duncan look off the defender and throw the lob to Bam and the defense trying to figure out how to adjust that, that shows a lot of growth.
“The handoff was deadly last year and teams scouted it, so how does Duncan adjust to make himself a threat still? He starts putting the ball on the floor and he’s only going to get better with it over time and just getting comfortable with it.”
Robinson’s continued growth along with his elite three-point shooting is expected to help him earn a sizable pay raise this upcoming offseason when he’s set to become a restricted free agent. He’s on a $1.7 million salary this season, and comparable players such as Brooklyn Nets sharpshooter Joe Harris signed a four-year, $75 million contract and Washington Wizards three-point specialist Davis Bertans signed a five-year, $80 million as free agents last offseason.
“Just really happy to see him be able to adjust to a scout, be able to adjust to that pressure of this year being his contract year and trying to perform,” Iguodala said of Robinson. “And he has an opportunity to be a very wealthy individual, which he will be.”
Those close to Robinson don’t expect the looming payday to change his low-key nature.
Reid remembers last offseason when Robinson made his way to a local high school to get shots up. When Robinson entered the gym, the girls’ basketball team that was practicing on the other end of the court stopped what they were doing to watch him work.
“He felt so bad,” Reid recalls. “He felt like he was distracting from their practice. ... He absolutely does not think he walks into that high school gym and he’s the big man on campus.
“Instead, it’s like I’m imposing on this high school practice. I don’t want anybody to look at me. I just want to get my work in and leave.”
Robinson may not like to admit it, but his days of going unnoticed on and off the basketball court are over. Robinson is adjusting to that reality, and that’s an important step.
This story was originally published April 20, 2021 at 12:05 PM.
