A closer look at Heat’s playoff series vs. Bucks, and what Miami will have to do to advance
The Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks begin their best-of-7 second-round playoff series on Monday at Disney’s Wide World of Sports Complex in Lake Buena Vista.
Here are eight questions surrounding the matchup, with answers on what to expect in the Heat-Bucks series:
The Heat is the only Eastern Conference team to earn multiple wins over the Bucks this season. What does that mean for the series?
Miami’s regular-season success against Milwaukee shouldn’t be ignored. The Heat seems to match up well against the Bucks, and the regular season is proof of that. But just because the Heat won two of its three matchups against the Bucks doesn’t mean Miami is going to win 67 percent of its games against Milwaukee moving forward. It doesn’t work like that. Here’s a glance at what happened when the Heat and Bucks faced off during the regular season ...
Game 1, Oct. 26: The Heat played without Jimmy Butler and still earned a 131-126 overtime win over the Bucks at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee. The Bucks led by 21 with 10:58 remaining in the third quarter, but the Heat ended up winning the second half and overtime 78-56 to complete its largest comeback since overcoming a 21-point deficit against the Houston Rockets on Nov. 1, 2015.
Game 2, March 2: The Heat defeated the Bucks 105-89 at AmericanAirlines Arena. Milwaukee was playing on the second night of a back-to-back set and it marked the Bucks’ second-most lopsided defeat of the season. The Heat limited the Bucks to a season-low 89 points on 40.7 percent shooting from the field and 7-of-34 shooting on threes.
Game 3, Aug. 6: Milwaukee picked up a 130-116 win over Miami during seeding play at Disney. The Heat was without Butler and Goran Dragic in the loss because of injuries and actually led by one point with 4:58 to play before the Bucks closed the game on a 20-5 run to earn the victory.
Overall: The Heat outscored the Bucks by a total score of 352-345 and recorded a +2.5 net rating in their three regular-season meetings.
What’s the injury situation for both teams entering the second round?
Both teams are relatively healthy.
Rookie Chris Silva (stress fracture in groin area) is the only Heat player ruled out for Game 1. Fellow rookie Gabe Vincent (sprained right shoulder) is listed as questionable for Monday’s contest.
The good news for Miami is that Butler (strained left shoulder) and starting forward Jae Crowder (sprained left ankle) were not on Sunday’s injury report and both are expected to play in Game 1.
For the Bucks, the only player on the injury report is starting guard Eric Bledsoe, who is questionable for Game 1 because of a right hamstring strain.
How does the Heat’s offense match up against the Bucks?
Relatively well, considering the Bucks finished the regular season with the NBA’s top defensive rating. The Heat posted the league’s seventh-best offensive rating in the regular season.
One of Miami’s biggest offensive strengths is its ability to make threes at an efficient rate. What shot does Milwaukee’s defense allow more than any other team in the NBA? The three-pointer.
The Bucks’ defense gave up the most three-point attempts in the league (39.3 per game) in the regular season, while the Heat finished the regular season with the NBA’s second-best team three-point percentage (37.9) and also shot 39.1 percent from deep in its first-round playoff sweep.
In their three regular-season meetings, Miami took the three-pointers Milwaukee’s defense was giving up and shot an efficient 55 of 127 (43.3 percent) from three-point range. That’s a high percentage and very likely not sustainable over a larger sample size, but the encouraging thing for the Heat is that 104 of the 127 threes it took against the Bucks were either open or wide open looks, according to NBA Advanced Stats.
As expected, Duncan Robinson led the Heat’s three-point charge against the Bucks this season. He made 11 of 21 threes against Milwaukee in three games.
Unless the Bucks dramatically alter their defensive scheme, three-point shots are going to be there for the Heat this series. The key for Miami is continuing to be efficient from deep because it’s not going to be easy to score points around the rim against Milwaukee.
The Bucks were the best at protecting the rim (held opponents to 55.2 percent shooting from inside the restricted area) in the regular season. With MVP front-runner and Defensive Player of the Year Giannis Antetokounmpo anchoring the defense and rim protection from center Brook Lopez, Milwaukee’s interior defense is elite.
In three regular-season games against the Bucks, the Heat shot an inefficient 50 of 112 (44.6 percent) from inside the paint. Miami All-Star center Bam Adebayo really struggled to finish around the rim against Milwaukee, making 11 of 29 shots from inside the paint.
One of the most important questions in this series is: Can the Heat make enough of its threes against the Bucks?
How does the Heat’s defense match up against the Bucks?
Milwaukee’s offense is dynamic with Antetokounmpo’s relentless ability to get into the paint. The Bucks finished the regular season with the NBA’s eighth-best offensive rating.
Antetokounmpo averaged an NBA-high 17.5 paint points per game in the regular season. The challenge in defending Antetokounmpo is finding a way to limit his shots around the rim, as he made just 32.8 percent of his shots from outside of the paint in the regular season.
One of the advantages the Heat has over most teams in defending the Bucks is it has a player on its roster who has the body and athletic ability to guard the 6-11 and 242-pound Antetokounmpo. The 6-9 and 255-pound Adebayo, who finished fifth in the voting for this season’s Defensive Player of the Year honor that went to Antetokounmpo, is one of the league’s most versatile and agile frontcourt defenders. Adebayo will surely be at the center of Miami’s defensive scheme against the reigning MVP, especially in important moments.
According to NBA Advanced Stats, Antetokounmpo scored 28 points on 12-of-28 shooting (42.9 percent) in the 52 possessions he was defended by Adebayo this season. Adebayo is one of only five NBA players who defended Antetokounmpo for 50 or more possessions in the regular season.
The Heat actually has a few plus-defenders it can throw at Antetokounmpo, which is important because Adebayo will need breaks to avoid foul trouble. Crowder, Derrick Jones Jr., Andre Iguodala and even Butler are options to use against Antetokounmpo.
Even if Miami is able to build a wall to keep Antetokounmpo (averaged 29.5 points, 13.6 rebounds and 5.6 assists in the regular season) out of the paint, the Bucks’ shooters will be there waiting for the pass. With Khris Middleton, Lopez, Wesley Matthews, Kyle Korver, George Hill and Bledsoe surrounding Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee averaged the fourth-most three-point attempts in the NBA in the regular season at 38.9 per game.
But the Bucks weren’t the most efficient from deep, finishing the regular season with the league’s 18th-best team three-point percentage (35.5).
The Heat, which recorded the 12th-best defensive rating in the regular season, can’t take away everything from the Bucks’ offense. But keeping Antetokounmpo out of the paint is probably priority No. 1.
Which team has the better bench?
This is a close one. Miami and Milwaukee rely on their bench more than most teams, with the Bucks using five reserves in most of their first-round games against the Orlando Magic. Milwaukee’s bench rotation includes guards Hill, Pat Connaughton, Donte DiVincenzo, and Korver, and forward Marvin Williams. Center Robin Lopez and forward Ersan Ilyasova are used when needed.
The Heat primarily used four players off its bench in the first round. Miami’s bench rotation includes rookie guard Tyler Herro, forwards Iguodala and Jones, and center Kelly Olynyk. Herro and Iguodala played the most minutes off Miami’s bench in the first round, especially in fourth quarters.
But rookie guard Kendrick Nunn, who played in one first-round game, is another reserve option if the Heat needs more offense on the court. With the Bucks allowing so many threes, it wouldn’t be surprising to see more playing time for Nunn in this series.
The Bucks’ reserves combined to average 37.4 points, while posting a plus/minus of plus-three in the first round. Meanwhile, the Heat’s bench combined to average 31.5 points, while posting a plus/minus of plus-13 in its first-round sweep.
It’s also worth noting: The Heat’s new starting lineup of Dragic, Robinson, Butler, Crowder and Adebayo was a plus-14 in 51 minutes together in the first round. Meanwhile, the Bucks’ starting lineup of Bledsoe, Matthews, Middleton, Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez posted an NBA-best plus/minus of plus-185 in the regular season. The battle between these two starting groups to begin each half will be interesting to watch.
What’s an under-the-radar advantage the Heat has entering the series?
The Bucks’ offense is productive in half-court sets, but it also generates a chunk of its points in transition as the fastest-paced team in the league. Milwaukee averaged the third-most fast-break points in the NBA at 18 per game in the regular season.
But the Heat has a done a solid job of limiting transition opportunities, holding opponents to the second-fewest fast-break points in the league at 11.4 per game in the regular season. Miami’s efficient offense helps because it’s easier to set a defense after a made shot.
Eliminating a few Milwaukee transition points could be the difference for Miami in a game or two this series.
What’s an under-the-radar advantage the Bucks have entering the series?
The Heat generates a lot of its offense from behind the three-point line, but it also depends on points from the free-throw line. Miami averaged the fourth-most free-throw attempts at 25.2 per game in the regular season with the help of Butler’s ability to repeatedly get to the foul line.
But the Bucks don’t foul much. Milwaukee limited opponents to the seventh-fewest free-throw attempts at 21.2 per game in the regular season.
Just like fewer Bucks transition points would help the Heat, fewer Miami free-throw attempts would be a good thing for Milwaukee.
How will the series play out?
The only prediction here is the series will go for a full seven games.
Because the prediction is for the series to go seven games and there is no home-court advantage in the NBA bubble, it wouldn’t be surprising to see either team win it.
Basketball, especially this matchup, is complicated. But this series could end up being as simple as this: Can the Heat make enough of its threes?
Not only is that the clearest way to solve Milwaukee’s elite defense because of the way it protects the rim, but a pile of made threes could also force the Bucks to change the way they play defense — possibly loosening up the paint — at some point in the series.
This story was originally published August 30, 2020 at 5:36 PM.
