Heat enters series vs. Bucks as popular underdog pick. Why? And Haslem on team’s confidence
The Miami Heat enters its second-round series against the Milwaukee Bucks as the clear underdog.
That’s not a surprise, considering the Bucks recorded the NBA’s top regular-season record and are led by MVP front-runner Giannis Antetokounmpo. But it’s also not surprising that the Heat is a popular underdog pick in the series.
With Game 1 of the best-of-7 second-round playoff series between the fifth-seeded Heat and top-seeded Bucks set for Monday at 6:30 p.m. (TNT) at Disney’s Wide World of Sports Complex, various basketball analysts from around the country have picked the Heat to win.
Among those who have predicted Miami to win the series: ESPN’s Kendrick Perkins and Matt Barnes, and Paul Pierce said “this is going to be an uphill battle for Milwaukee.” ESPN also surveyed 18 of its NBA analysts, with seven picking the Heat and 11 picking the Bucks to advance to the conference finals.
“I think the majority of us, if not all of us, have a chip on our shoulder,” All-Star wing Jimmy Butler said of the Heat entering the series as a popular upset pick. “I think that’s what makes us who we are and what makes us play so hard, and play together so much. We don’t care who’s picked to win, who’s picked to lose in however many games. We’re going to go out there to compete, man. We know what we’re capable of.”
Why has Miami become a trendy pick to eliminate the top-seeded Bucks?
It probably starts with the fact the Heat won the season series 2-1 over the Bucks, and Miami didn’t have Butler in two of those games. Miami won the first two matchups before the NBA shutdown in March, and Milwaukee won the most recent meeting earlier this month during seeding play at Disney.
The Heat is one of only three teams to defeat the Bucks at least two times this season, along with the Dallas Mavericks and Denver Nuggets.
Based on Miami’s regular-season success against Milwaukee and the teams’ playing styles, the Heat also seems to match up well against the Bucks.
Three-point shooting is a big part of Miami’s perceived matchup advantage.
The Bucks’ defense gave up the most three-point attempts in the league (39.3 per game) and was also the best at protecting the rim (held opponents to 55.2 percent shooting from inside the restricted area) in the regular season. To solve Milwaukee’s elite interior defense, a team must be able to make the threes the Bucks give up.
The Heat has the personnel to do that, as it finished the regular season with the NBA’s second-best team three-point percentage (37.9) and also shot 39.1 percent from deep in its first-round playoff sweep. In three games against Milwaukee this season, Miami shot an efficient 55 of 127 (43.3 percent) from three-point range and an inefficient 50 of 112 (44.6 percent) from inside the paint.
“It’s very important,” Butler said of the Heat’s three-point shooting against the Bucks. “We’re going to play the same style of basketball. ... We’re going to attack, get into the paint, find the open shooters. And we’re going to be pissed off if they don’t shoot the ball. That’s the way that we play. We want our guys to be aggressive.”
A team also has to devise a scheme to slow Antetokounmpo, who is a Heat target in 2021 free agency, to have success against the Bucks.
The Heat has one of the league’s most versatile and agile frontcourt defenders on its roster in All-Star big man Bam Adebayo, who finished fifth in the voting for this season’s Defensive Player of the Year honor that went to Antetokounmpo. Adebayo will surely be at the center of Miami’s defensive scheme against the reigning MVP, especially in important moments.
According to NBA Advanced Stats, Antetokounmpo scored 28 points on 12-of-28 shooting (42.9 percent) in the 52 possessions he was defended by Adebayo this season. Adebayo is one of only five NBA players who defended Antetokounmpo for 50 or more possessions in the regular season.
The Heat is expected to throw multiple defenders in front of Antetokounmpo whenever he has the ball to try to keep him out of the paint. He averaged an NBA-high 17.5 paint points per game in the regular season.
Antetokounmpo shot 68 percent from inside the paint in Bucks regular-season wins, compared to 60.9 percent in losses. Preventing Antetokounmpo from dominating around the rim will be important for Miami in the series.
“Even if you think you play him well, he’s always dancing around a triple-double,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said of Antetokounmpo. “They’ve got a lot of weapons. ... You’re going to have to do a lot of things well and do things with purpose and make multiple efforts.”
Even if the Heat finds a way to limit Antetokounmpo below his season average of 29.5 points on 55.3 percent shooting, the Bucks have surrounded him with shooters to make teams pay for packing the paint against their superstar. Milwaukee averaged the fourth-most three-point attempts in the NBA in the regular season at 38.9 per game.
The Bucks’ other All-Star Khris Middleton is an efficient three-point shooter, as he averaged 20.9 points on 49.7 percent shooting from the field and 41.5 percent shooting on threes in the regular season.
“They generate a lot of three-point looks because they have a guy that collapses your defense consistently,” Spoelstra said, referring to Antetokounmpo. “... The more you advance in the playoffs, you’re going to have bigger challenges. You’re going to have to do multiple things on every single possession. It’s not just going to be a one effort possession.”
Another perceived advantage the Heat has entering the series: Miami has had a full week off since completing its first-round sweep of the Indiana Pacers on Monday, while Milwaukee had just one day to prepare after clinching its first-round series against the Orlando Magic on Saturday.
That time should help Miami, with Butler dealing with a strained left shoulder that limited him in Game 4 against the Pacers and Crowder nursing a sprained left ankle he played through in the first round. Both have been able to participate in practices leading up to the Heat’s series against the Bucks and are expected to play in Game 1.
“It’s not an issue,” Butler said of his shoulder. “I’m good to go. I’ve been doing what I’m supposed to be doing to get it right. Still lifting. Still working on my game. And I’m expected to go out there and compete at a high level. Whether it hurts or not, that’s what I’m going to do.”
Through it all, the Heat remains a confident team whether outsiders predict it to win a series or not.
“I feel like we can win it and I feel like we have just as good an opportunity,” team captain Udonis Haslem said of Miami’s chances to win a championship. “When you look at everything that’s going on right now, this team was built for the bubble. When you talk about tough, when you talk about hard-nosed, when you talk about work ethic, when you talk about mentally tough. There’s not a mentally tougher team in this bubble, there’s not a mentally tougher leader in this bubble. The Miami Heat was built for anything.”
This story was originally published August 30, 2020 at 2:56 PM.
