What have we learned and what are we waiting to learn about the Heat at midway point?
The expectations have changed surrounding the Heat.
Merely making the playoffs is not enough anymore. The Heat has its sights on bigger goals after posting a revelatory 29-12 record over the first half of the season, which is currently the second-best record in the East and tied for the third-best record in the NBA.
The Heat’s 29 wins are also tied for the third-most victories at the midway point of a season in franchise history, with only the 30 wins it piled up in 2010-11 and 1996-97 ahead of the team’s current track. Miami is on pace for a staggering 58 wins this season, a win total it has reached or surpassed just four times in franchise history.
The Heat opens the second half of the season with a Sunday afternoon game against the Spurs to close a quick two-game trip that began with Friday’s road win over the Thunder.
“I mean, yeah, who cares?” coach Erik Spoelstra said with a laugh when asked about the Heat’s 58-win pace following Friday’s victory.
The Heat’s success over the first half of the season didn’t happen by accident, though. Big man Kelly Olynyk pointed to a well-constructed roster.
“We have a great group of guys that’s playing really good basketball together as a unit,” Olynyk said. “We had great individual performances, but as a team, we’ve been together on both ends of the floor for the first half of the season. We have good leadership, good pieces and you can see it’s all coming together. Sometimes you have great pieces, but it’s two different puzzles. When you have all the pieces to the puzzle coming together, it’s a thing of art.”
The 41-game mark is a good time to stop and break down what we have learned about the Heat this season and what we are still waiting to learn about the Heat this season. So, here we go ...
Five things we’ve learned about the Heat during the first half of the season
1. The Heat’s offense is surprisingly ahead of its defense. After the first 41 games of the season, the Heat entered Saturday with the league’s eighth-best offensive rating and 13th-best defensive rating. This is somewhat of a surprise, considering Miami’s goal entering the season was to field a top-five defense and the fact that it finished with the league’s fifth-worst offensive rating last season. But the Heat has quickly built a top-10 offense around the playmaking ability of Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler, and elite outside shooting.
2. Adebayo is an All-Star talent. For the Heat to be successful, Adebayo was going to have to show growth in his third NBA season. But he has done more than just that, as he’s putting up numbers that make him a realistic candidate to make his first All-Star Game this year. He’s averaging career-highs in points (15.9), rebounds (10.4), assists (4.6), steals (1.2) and blocks (1.2). Adebayo is one of only three NBA players averaging at least 15 points, 10 rebounds, four assists, one steal and one block this season. The other names on that list: reigning MVP and Bucks All-Star forward Giannis Antetokounmpo and Timberwolves All-Star big man Karl-Anthony Towns.
3. Butler can still impact winning even when he’s not shooting the ball particularly well. Butler is shooting 44.4 percent from the field, which would be his worst single-season shooting percentage since he made 39.7 percent of his shots in the third season of his career in 2013-14. He’s also shooting 27.1 percent on threes, which would be his worst single-season three-point shooting percentage since he made 18.2 percent of his threes as a rookie in 2011-12. But Butler still leads the Heat in scoring (20.3 points per game) and assists (6.4 assists per game), with the help of a team-high 9.4 free-throw attempts per game. Butler also owns a team-best plus/minus of plus-220 this season.
4. The Heat’s success with undrafted players has more to do with its ability to find overlooked talent than just pure luck. Miami has five undrafted players on its 15-man roster — Udonis Haslem, Derrick Jones Jr., Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson and Chris Silva. Nunn and Robinson are starting, and Jones is playing a key role off the bench. Nunn has already earned two Rookie of the Month awards and Robinson is seventh in the NBA with 131 made threes this season. Miami’s ability to find talent among the undrafted pool of players has certainly paid off.
5. Rookie guard Tyler Herro has the potential to be a special offensive player. The Heat’s first-round pick out of Kentucky is averaging 13.4 points on 41.7 percent shooting from the field and 38.5 percent shooting on threes, 4.4 rebounds and 2.2 assists this season. Those numbers are solid, but there have been flashes of brilliance from the 19-year-old — from his smooth step-back jumper to his surprising ball-handling skills to his 29-point performance on 7-of-9 shooting from the field against the Hawks on Oct. 29. And the Heat has really counted on Herro late in games, as he has played a team-high 345 fourth-quarter minutes and has scored a team-high 156 fourth-quarter points this season.
Five unanswered Heat questions to monitor during the second half of the season
1. When will Justise Winslow return to the court? This has been one of the few unfortunate story lines surrounding the Heat during the first half of the season, and it doesn’t seem like Winslow’s return is imminent either. He has missed 19 of Heat’s past 20 games with a lower-back bone bruise, with the latest timetable offered by the team keeping Winslow out for at least the next six games when he will be re-evaluated at the start of February. There is no doubt the Heat is a better team with Winslow on the court. The numbers prove that, especially on defense. But Winslow has played in just 11 of the Heat’s first 41 games this season because of various injuries.
2. Will the Heat find a trade that improves the current roster without sacrificing significant 2021 cap space? This will be the big question leading up to the Feb. 6 trade deadline. With the Heat’s position in the standings, there’s no reason to make a move out of desperation. And there’s certainly no reason for Miami to sacrifice 2021 cap space in any potential deal unless it’s for a superstar. But there’s always a move to be made, and there seems to be a need for another stretch big on the roster who could also serve as a reliable interior defender. So, a trade is not out of the question.
3. What will be the next chapter in the Dion Waiters saga? The first half of the season included three team-issued suspensions for the disgruntled Heat guard. The first suspension was for one game for what the team called unprofessional conduct. The second suspension was for 10 games for conduct detrimental to the team, including a medical situation on the Heat’s flight from Phoenix to Los Angeles on the night of Nov. 7 that was reportedly due to Waiters ingesting a THC-infused gummy. And the third suspension was for six games “for his failure to adhere to team policies, violation of team rules and continued insubordination.” Waiters is currently with the team, but he has yet to play this season. It doesn’t look like he’s going to play any time soon either. With Waiters’ contract running through the 2020-21 season, what’s next? There are options for the Heat and Waiters to part ways, but there isn’t one that’s perfect for both sides.
4. Who is the best fit to play in the frontcourt next to Adebayo? Stretch center Meyers Leonard has started each of the first 41 games next to Adebayo, and there’s no plan for that to change. The Heat has outscored opponents by 74 points in the 650 minutes Adebayo and Leonard have played together this season. But Spoelstra hasn’t used the Adebayo-Leonard combination much late in games, with the two logging just 17 fourth-quarter minutes together this season. Who has Spoelstra played next to Adebayo down the stretch of games? Even with Olynyk falling out of the rotation recently, Adebayo and Olynyk have played 136 fourth-quarter minutes together this season. But that duo is a minus-11 in that time. How about going small with Jones playing next to Adebayo? In 135 fourth-quarter minutes together, the Adebayo-Jones tandem is a minus-23. James Johnson is another option, but the Adebayo-Johnson combination is a minus-five in 15 fourth-quarter minutes together. Winslow would seem to be the natural choice next to Adebayo, as Winslow’s versatility at 6-6 and 222 pounds unlocks a lot of intriguing small-ball lineups for the Heat. But Winslow has been injured for most of the season and is unavailable. At some point, Butler could have to fill the role of a small-ball four next Adebayo late in games. This situation is definitely one to watch.
5. If the Heat’s success continues, does Spoelstra deserve the NBA Coach of the Year award? He’ll definitely be one of the top candidates. There can’t be many who predicted the Heat to have 29 wins at the midway point of the season, especially with Nunn, Herro and Robinson playing major roles and Winslow missing so much time. Spoelstra has done some of his best work this season. Pat Riley is the only Heat coach to win the award, earning the honor when he helped lead Miami to a 61-win season in 1996-97.
This story was originally published January 18, 2020 at 3:15 PM.
