Exploring Heat’s trade options and why 2021 isn’t the total deterrent it might appear
With the NBA trade deadline looming Feb. 6, the Heat has two big impediments: Its top trade chip (Justise Winslow) remains injured and Miami lacks an available first-round pick to trade.
But another factor viewed as an impediment — the desire to maintain max cap space in 2021 — isn’t quite the deterrent as it would appear.
Though the Heat wants to maintain flexibility to offer a max deal to Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo in the summer of 2021 — something that it should be in position to do if it doesn’t sign Derrick Jones Jr., Goran Dragic or Meyers Leonard past next season — here are three things to keep in mind:
▪ The Heat believes that even if it doesn’t have cap space, it usually can acquire any player who wants to be here. (Exhibit A: Jimmy Butler, who was snagged despite Miami being well over the cap.)
▪ Even if the Heat acquires a quality player whose contract runs beyond 2021, thus leaving Miami well short of max cap space in 2021, there’s a solution to that in a few cases.
If, hypothetically, Miami acquired New Orleans Pelicans guard Jrue Holiday — who has been linked to the Heat — and if the Heat learned in the summer of 2021 than Antetokounmpo wanted to come to Miami, the Heat could trade the final year of Holiday’s contract (if he exercises a $26.3 million player option for 2021-22) to a team with cap space for a player earning substantially less and a draft pick or merely a draft pick. Unless Holiday is seriously injured next season, that wouldn’t be a problem.
And if Holiday opts out of his contract in June 2021, it wouldn’t be a problem because he could be renounced from Miami’s cap to make room for Giannis or anybody else Miami wanted to sign. FYI: I’ve done the math repeatedly, and unless Miami traded nearly all of its young players, there is no realistic path to having Holiday, Butler, Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo unless Giannis took a pay cut, which isn’t realistic.
Whereas a Holiday rental wouldn’t be a big risk to 2021 cap space, there would be far less confidence that Miami would be able to trade, say, Kevin Love, in that scenario, making that too risky a gamble, with Love due $31.2 million in 2021-22 and $28.9 million the following season. There would be the same too-high risk involved with Chris Paul, who would be impossible to unload when he’s due $44 million in 2021-22.
Also keep this in mind about 2021: If you presume that Paul George, Kawhi Leonard and Anthony Davis will choose to stay with their Los Angeles teams, that Antetokounmpo would be the only power-shifting realistically available free agent in that summer of 2021, with Victor Olapido and Rudy Gobert the next-best options.
▪ The Heat already has max space in 2021, or very close to it; if Duncan Robinson and Kendrick Nunn remain starters, their cap hits would go up a bit. But Miami can clear out another $13 million by not exercising the player option on Winslow for 2021-22 or trading him to a team with cap space for a draft pick.
In the meantime, here’s a look at some names, and whether the Heat would make sense as a trade option.
Keep in mind that because Miami is operating under a hard cap this season, it essentially cannot take back any more money than it sends out:
▪ A source in contact with the Spurs said San Antonio hasn’t decided what to do regarding LaMarcus Aldridge and Demar DeRozan but that it views the Heat as a potential trade partner if it decides to make a move with either one.
Though there’s no indication of any aggressive Heat pursuit of either at this time, one source said Heat/Spurs contact was expected, if it hasn’t happened already. Pat Riley previously pursued both players when they were free agents and both have deals with only one more full season.
Aldridge, who has been on a recent roll from three-point range (20 for his last 40), would appear to be the far more logical target because the Heat could use another skilled, accomplished power rotation player. An informed source said the Spurs would want more than simply an injured Winslow and Derrick Jones Jr. and expiring contracts. Kendrick Nunn could entice the Spurs, but whether Miami would be willing is another story.
Aldridge is due $24 million next season, DeRozan $27.7 million if he exercises his player option for 2020-21.
▪ Warriors guard DeAngelo Russell: Due $30 million and $31.4 million in the two years after the summer of 2021, so the Heat would need to gamble that it could find a team awash in cap space in 2021 that would take Russell if Antetokounmpo wanted to come here. It’s unclear if Golden State would listen.
▪ Phoenix center Aron Baynes: Due $5.6 million in an expiring contract, and it’s unclear if Phoenix — which is trying to sneak into the playoffs — would be willing to move him. A solid scorer and rebounder with a three-point game, but his defensive metrics are poor this season.
▪ Kings center DeWayne Dedmon: Has rotted on bench for Kings after averaging 10.8 points, 7.5 rebounds and making 83 threes for Atlanta last season.
As a hypothetical, his contract is virtually identical to Winslow’s (about $13 million per, through 2021-22), and only $1 million of the $13 million in 2021-22 is guaranteed. Dedmon and power forward Nemanja Bjelica (12 points per game, 43 percent on threes) for Winslow, Dion Waiters and a pick would be a hypothetical thought.
But Winslow’s trade value is diminished because of a back injury that has him out indefinitely.
Kelly Olynyk could also be a potential chip for Dedmon.
▪ OKC center Steven Adams: Due $27.5 million next season in the final season of his deal, but he’s not the floor spacer Erik Spoelstra likes to pair with Bam Adebayo; he has never made a three-pointer in a game (0 for 8 in his career). And the Thunder, sitting in the seventh seed, could decide to stand pat. So this doesn’t make much sense.
▪ Cleveland power forward/center Tristan Thompson: Averaging 11 rebounds and would clearly help but not a three-point threat (3 for 17 in his career), so not the ideal fit alongside Adebayo. Has an $18 million expiring contract and would make sense if Miami could offload James Johnson or Waiters (good luck with that).
▪ Memphis swingman Andre Iguadola: Has stayed away from the Grizzlies all season, with the expectation he will be traded or granted a buyout if he’s not dealt. The Lakers and Clippers have long been considered the favorites. Memphis wants a first-round pick, and the Heat has none to offer, with Miami prohibited from trading this June’s first-rounder until draft night. He’s due $17.2 million in an expiring deal.
▪ Pelicans guard JJ Redick: Due $13 million next season in final year of a two-year deal. No indication that he’s available and not sure there’s a logical path here, with Tyler Herro off limits and Miami lacking a first-round pick.
▪ Knicks forward Marcus Morris: Averaging 18 points on one-year, $15 million deal. Miami’s lack of a tradable first-rounder probably takes it out of the equation, and the Knicks have suggested they might heep him.
▪ Not sensible: Love and Paul, for reasons stated above. And that’s likely the case with Minnesota’s Andrew Wiggins, due $31.6 million in 2021-22 and $33.6 million the following season… Blazers guard CJ McCollum - who isn’t said to be available - also would be risky (though less so than Love or Paul) because he has four more full seasons left on his deal, at $29.3 million, $30.9 million, $33.3 million and $35.8 million. So if Antetokounmpo wanted to come to the Heat, Miami would need to hope Milwaukee wants McCollum or the Heat would need to find another team to take the last three years of his contract….
Forget Blake Griffin, who’s likely out for the year and due $38.9 million in 2021-22, the final year of his Clippers deal that Detroit traded for. And Pistons center Andre Drummond’s expiring deal would make little sense for Miami because of the appealing assets that would be required to acquire him and Miami’s lack of a first-round pick.
▪ Salary dumps: Charlotte’s expiring deals for Marvin Williams ($15 million) or Michael-Kidd Gilchrist ($13 million) would make sense for the Heat only if you can dump Waiters, though the hard cap issue would make Waiters for Williams impossible without additional pieces … Acquiring Atlanta’s expiring deals for Chandler Parsons ($25 million) or Evan Turner ($18 million) would make sense if you can dump both Johnson and Waiters. Again, though, good luck with that.
One name not on this list: Wizards guard Bradley Beal, who’s not eligible to be traded until the offseason and is due $34.5 million in 2021-22 and $37.2 million (player option) the following year. Beal spoke this past week of the need to start winning and changing Washington’s culture. As Beal told us this season, he holds the Heat organization in high regard.
Who’s available from the Heat’s side beyond Johnson and Waiters? Winslow and likely Olynyk ($13.6 million player option for next season) and potentially the expiring deals of Leonard and Jones if there were a clear upgrade available.
Goran Dragic, Nunn and Duncan Robinson could come into play if there’s an opportunity to acquire a clear-cut All-Star caliber player.
This story was originally published January 17, 2020 at 3:32 PM.
