The Miami Marlins can clinch a playoff spot Saturday. Here’s what needs to happen
The moment might finally be here.
If things work in the Miami Marlins’ favor on Saturday, they will be celebrating in the visitor’s clubhouse at Pittsburgh’s PNC Park because they will have clinched a spot in the playoffs for the first time in a full season since winning the 2003 World Series.
“We talked about it in spring training: We weren’t going after a winning record; we’re going after getting in the playoffs and see what happens,” Marlins manager Skip Schumaker said after Friday’s 4-3 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates that moved them to the cusp of a playoff berth. “We’re getting closer, but we’re not there yet. No one’s popping anything in there yet. This game is wild. The season’s crazy. Nothing about it makes sense, really. I’ve been on teams where we won the last game of the season to get in, so that’s why I’m just day-to-day and hope to win tomorrow.”
With a win or assistance by a couple teams chasing them, the Marlins will be playing in the postseason.
Here’s a quick look at where everything stands entering Saturday and what needs to happen for Miami to secure its playoff spot by the end of the day.
The National League playoff standings
▪ NL East champion: Atlanta Braves (103-57)
▪ NL West champion: Los Angeles Dodgers (99-61)
▪ NL Central champion: Milwaukee Brewers (91-69)
▪ Wild Card 1: Philadelphia Phillies (89-70)
▪ Wild Card 2: Arizona Diamondbacks (84-76)
▪ Wild Card 3: Miami Marlins (83-76)
▪ First team out: Cincinnati Reds (82-78), one-and-a-half games behind the Marlins.
▪ Second team out: Chicago Cubs (82-78), one-and-a-half games behind the Marlins
What needs to happen
The Marlins need one of two outcomes in order to secure their playoff spot on Saturday.
Option 1: The Marlins win their game against the Pirates, which is scheduled for a 6:35 p.m. first pitch.
Option 2: Both the Cubs and Reds have to lose their Saturday games. The Cubs are at the Brewers, which is scheduled for a 7:10 p.m. first pitch. The Reds are at the St. Louis Cardinals, with first pitch at 7:15 p.m.
If the first outcome happens, the Marlins will finish with no fewer than 84 wins, which is the most wins the Cubs and Reds can attain.
If the second outcome happens, neither the Cubs nor Reds can get more than 83 wins, the amount the Marlins have entering Saturday.
Because the Marlins own the head-to-head tiebreaker with both teams, that’s enough for them to secure a playoff spot.
Miami went 4-2 against Chicago in the regular season. The Marlins went 3-3 against the Reds but have the advantage in the second tiebreaker, which is intradivision record — a team’s record against its division opponents. Miami is 26-25 against the NL East, while the Reds are 21-29 against the NL Central.
The Marlins also hold the advantage if there’s a three-way tie with the Reds and Cubs. Miami wins has a .583 win percentage (7-5) against Cincinnati and Chicago. The Reds have a .526 win percentage (10-9) against the Marlins and Cubs. Chicago has just a .421 win percentage (8-11) against Cincinnati and Miami.
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