The curious case of Edward Cabrera’s 2023 season, as inconsistency plagues Marlins pitcher
All season, Edward Cabrera has shown both extremes of what he can become. There’s the tantalizing raw skill that gives the Miami Marlins hope he can be a top-end pitcher. And then there are the inconsistencies in harnessing that raw skill that show how much he still has to grow.
His performance in Tuesday’s 3-1 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers was just the latest example.
Over 4 1/3 innings following a scoreless first inning from opener JT Chargois, Cabrera gave up just one hit — a go-ahead solo home run to Josh Donaldson — and struck out five. Six of nine balls in play against him being either groundballs or popouts.
But then there were the walks. Cabrera issued six of them Tuesday, the fourth time in 19 appearances this season he has given up at least that many. He walked four of the first five batters he faced to force in a run and then issued back-to-back walks with two outs in the sixth to end his night.
“He was playing with fire,” Marlins manager Skip Schumaker said.
It’s the latest instance of the curious case that has been Cabrera’s 2023 season. His pure stuff is among the best in MLB, but the 25-year-old has struggled to be effective despite his talent.
Lack of command was the primary reason the Marlins optioned Cabrera to the minor leagues in August. They needed him to figure things out, to get his mechanics in order, to get himself to a place where he can be a contributor — not a liability — to a team in the midst of a playoff push.
Now that he’s back, partly out of necessity due to the state of Miami’s rotation depth, he has little time to course correct as the season winds down and the magnitude of each game increases.
“I need to trust myself,” Cabrera said. “If I don’t trust myself, nobody will.”
‘Throw more strikes’
After the game Tuesday, Cabrera approached infielder Luis Arraez in the clubhouse to talk about his outing.
Arraez gave Cabrera a simple message.
“He’s got to throw more strikes,” Arraez said. “If he throws more strikes, he’s nasty.”
On the season, Cabrera has landed just 59 percent of his pitches for strikes. His average of 18.37 pitches per inning are the most of any starter on the team.
But it’s not for lack of raw stuff. It’s just the ability to command it.
Cabrera has three pitches that induce swing and miss rates above 30 percent in his changeup (37 percent), curveball (38.6 percent) and slider (32.6 percent) and a fastball that averages 96 mph.
“His stuff is real and as good as anybody’s in the league when it’s inside the strike zone,” Schumaker said. “He’s got to be on the attack.”
When he’s on the attack, Cabrera can be nearly unhittable.
Just how good can Cabrera be?
Through 85 2/3 innings pitched, Cabrera has struck out 106 of 373 batters he has faced.
His 11.1 strikeout per nine innings ranks ninth in MLB among pitchers with at least 85 innings pitched.
But just how inconsistent has Cabrera been?
Through 85 2/3 innings, Cabrera has issued 60 walks to 373 batters faced.
His 16.1-percent walk rate is the worst in baseball and his 6.3 walks per nine innings are the second-worst among pitchers with at least as many innings as him.
And when Cabrera walks batters, it’s typically in bunches.
This season, he has 15 multi-walk innings, including three four-walk innings and one three-walk inning, that have accounted for 37 of his 60 walks. That means 61.7 percent of his walks have come in less than 20 percent of time on the mound.
For even more perspective on Cabrera’s season, no starting pitcher in MLB history has had a season with at least 85 innings pitched, a strikeouts per nine inning rate of at least 11.1 and a walks per nine inning rate of at least 6.3.
The closest comparison for a primary starter with those stats was Robbie Ray’s 2020 season with Arizona and Toronto, when he had an 11.8 strikeouts per nine inning rate and 7.8 walks per nine inning rate in 51 2/3 innings over 12 starts in the pandemic-shortened campaign.
A new role
After demoting Cabrera to the minor leagues for a month after the trade deadline, the Marlins have tried to ease him back into the big leagues by using him out of the bullpen.
In his first outing back on Sept. 6 against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Cabrera entered in the fifth inning after Schumaker used three relievers ahead of him. He worked around two walks in his first inning of work and a two-out single in his second to toss four shutout frames with eight strikeouts.
He wasn’t as fortunate on Tuesday when 12 of his first 13 pitches landed outside of the zone to load the bases before getting an out or allowing a ball in play. He settled in afterward, but the damage was already done at that point.
“It’s a little different, coming in and seeing the game started and you’re in the bullpen,” Cabrera said. “It’s just a matter of getting used to it.”
Regardless of the role, starter or bulk reliever on bullpen days, Cabrera is going to be vital for the Marlins if they want to keep their hopes for a playoff berth alive.
The team is without ace Sandy Alcantara, who went on the injured list last week with a right forearm flexor strain. Without Alcantara, the Marlins need Cabrera to pick up responsibility in a rotation that also includes fellow youngsters Eury Perez, Jesus Luzardo and Braxton Garrett along with veteran Johnny Cueto.
“We’ve just gotta keep building him up, give him the confidence,” Schumaker said, “because we’re gonna need him down the stretch.”
This story was originally published September 13, 2023 at 10:11 AM.
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