After recent bumps in the road, perspective on Sandy Alcantara’s path to potential Cy Young Award
There have been multiple points throughout this season that Miami Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara has looked like the runaway choice for the National League Cy Young Award.
And there there have been recent starts that understandably give reason for pause.
Friday was the latter.
Alcantara gave up six earned runs on three separate two-run home runs in an 8-1 Marlins loss to the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park. It was Alcantara’s second time in three starts he has given up six runs and the fourth time in seven starts he has given up at least four earned runs — something he did just twice through his first 20 starts of the season.
“I feel bad about today,” Alcantara said after his start Friday, “but I’ve got to keep positive because I know what I’ve been doing. I’ve got more days coming to [pitch] good.”
Now, Alcantara is still in the thick of the Cy Young race — and very well could still be considered the favorite — but the race on paper has gotten closer as the regular season heads into its final month.
After Friday’s start, Alcantara’s ERA has jumped to 2.36. That is still the second-best mark in the National League behind only the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Julio Urias (2.32). He is one of nine qualified starting pitchers overall in the National League with an ERA below 3.00, along with the Arizona Diamondbacks’ Zac Gallen (2.53) and Merrill Kelly (2.84); the Braves’ Max Fried (2.56) and Kyle Wright (2.85); the Dodgers’ Tyler Anderson (2.68); the Milwaukee Brewers’ Corbin Burnes (2.84); and the San Francisco Giants’ Logan Webb (2.89).
“This year, you have to talk about him” being one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, Marlins manager Don Mattingly said. “There’s obviously a lot of good guys out there, but I think if you’re not talking about Sandy in that conversation, then you’ve overlooked somebody.”
With that, some perspective on Alcantara’s path to this point.
Racking up innings against playoff teams
Pitching deep into games — and pitching well while pitching deep into games — has been Alcantara’s trademark this season.
He still leads all of MLB with 190 2/3 innings pitched, 51 more than the only pitcher in the NL with a better ERA than him in Urias (139 2/3). Alcantara is the only pitcher in the majors with four complete games. Of the nine qualified NL starters with a sub-3.00 ERA, Alcantara’s 1.00 WHIP and .209 batting average against both rank fourth.
And more often than not, Alcantara is having to put up these numbers while facing some of the league’s best teams.
Two-thirds of Alcantara’s starts this season (18 of 27) and nearly two-thirds of his total innings pitched (125 2/3 of 190 2/3) have come against seven teams that enter Saturday in MLB’s playoff field.
No other qualified NL starting pitcher with an ERA below 3.00 has pitched at least half of his innings against playoff teams (Burnes is the closest at 44.2 percent) let alone the nearly two-thirds rate that Alcantara has done so far.
He has faced the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets four times each; the Braves three times; the San Diego Padres, Dodgers and St. Louis Cardinals twice; and the Seattle Mariners once.
And how has he fared in those games? Alcantara has a collective 3.08 ERA against this field (43 earned runs in 125 2/3 innings). Three of Alcantara’s four complete games have come against this field, one apiece against the Dodgers, Braves and Cardinals. Twelve of his 19 quality starts have come against this field.
As for his nine starts against everyone else (three against the Washington Nationals, two against the Giants, and one apiece against the Los Angeles Angels, Diamondbacks, Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates), it’s about what one would expect from a Cy Young Award contender: A 0.97 ERA (just seven earned runs over 65 innings), including six outings in which he pitched at least seven innings and allowed no more than one earned run.
So Alcantara has an ERA better than all but 10 qualified National League pitchers this season when solely facing playoff teams and has been nearly perfect when facing teams outside of what the postseason field would be if the regular season had already ended.
As for the other eight pitchers? Here’s how their splits break down:
▪ Urias: 2.16 ERA in 33 1/3 innings over six starts against playoff teams; 2.37 ERA in 106 1/3 innings over 19 starts against non-playoff teams.
▪ Gallen: 3.33 ERA in 46 innings over nine starts against playoff teams; 2.17 ERA in 99 2/3 innings over 16 starts against non-playoff teams.
▪ Fried: 2.77 ERA in 61 2/3 innings over 10 starts against playoff teams; 2.42 ERA in 96 2/3 innings over 15 starts against non-playoff teams.
▪ Anderson: 2.51 ERA in 43 innings over seven starts against playoff teams; 2.75 ERA in 104 2/3 innings over 16 games (14 starts) against non-playoff teams.
▪ Burnes: 3.21 ERA in 70 innings over 12 starts against playoff teams; 2.55 ERA in 88 1/3 innings over 14 starts against non-playoff teams.
▪ Kelly: 3.35 ERA in 48 1/3 innings over nine starts against playoff teams; 2.63 ERA in 116 1/3 innings over 18 starts against non-playoff teams.
▪ Wright: 3.38 ERA over 48 innings in eight starts against playoff teams; 2.62 ERA in 106 2/3 innings in 17 starts against non-playoff teams.
▪ Webb: 3.07 ERA in 67 1/3 innings in 11 starts against playoff teams; 2.76 ERA in 97 2/3 innings in 16 starts against non-playoff teams.
The path isn’t going to get any easier for Alcantara, either.
His next two starts are slated to be against the Phillies (first at Citizens Bank Park and then at home at loanDepot park). If the Marlins stay on turn the rest of the season, he’ll also be slated to pitch the team’s regular-season finale against the Braves with two starts against the Nationals (one home, one on the road) and a road start against the Brewers mixed in.
Does extra rest impact Sandy Alcantara?
Of Alcantara’s 27 starts this season, he has 13 that come on regular four-days rest and 11 (including Friday) that have come with one extra day of rest.
Here are Alcantara’s splits for those outings:
▪ Thirteen starts with four days of rest: A 2.25 ERA with 73 strikeouts against 26 walks over 92 innings. He pitched at least seven innings and allowed no more than two runs in nine of those 13 starts, which include two of his four complete games (June 29 at the Cardinals and his Aug. 3 shutout against the Reds). He only pitched five innings or fewer in two of those 13 outings (May 6 at the Padres and July 29 against the Mets) and he gave up five earned runs over 5 2/3 innings against the Mariners on May 1.
▪ Eleven starts with five days of rest: A 2.13 ERA with 79 strikeouts against 12 walks in 80 innings. He pitched at least seven innings and allowed no more than two runs in seven of those 11 starts, which include his other two complete games (May 22 against the Braves and Aug. 27 against the Dodgers) as well as another nine-inning performance against the Nationals on June 8, eight shutout innings against the Cardinals on April 20 and the Angels on July 5, and two additional games in which he went eight innings and allowed no more than two earned runs (May 28 against the Braves and June 19 against the Mets).
But while his highs with an extra day of rest are equal (if not better) than his highs on regular rest, his lows are much lower.
Both of Alcantara’s games in which he allowed a season-high six earned runs — Friday against the Braves and Aug. 21 in 3 2/3 innings against the Dodgers — came with that fifth day of rest. They also came over the span of the past three games, with the complete game against the Dodgers sandwiched between.
The other three outings not included in those splits were his Opening Day start against the Giants on April 8 (two earned runs on three hits and five walks over five innings pitched with four strikeouts), his July 24 start against the Pirates after the All-Star Break (two earned runs on two hits and three walks over six innings with 10 strikeouts) and his Aug. 10 start at the Phillies on Aug. 10 (four earned runs on eight hits and one walk with four strikeouts over 7 2/3 innings — with all of the damage against him coming in the eighth inning).
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