Marlins rotation, an ‘intriguing mix of great arms,’ will be on display as season winds down
There were moments in spring training, way back in late February and throughout March, when Miami Marlins general manager Kim Ng would get excited, giddy almost.
When you have the young starting pitching talent that she inherited, it’s easy to see why.
But that excitement wasn’t able to fully make its way into the regular season.
When you look at all the turnover in the Marlins’ five-man starting rotation due to injury, family emergencies and inconsistency among the group’s second-tier pitchers, it’s easy to see why.
That, in essence, highlights one of the few story lines to watch for this Marlins team as it makes its way through the final month of the season.
For the first time all year, they have five starting pitchers in their MLB rotation who all could factor into their long-term plans.
The group as it currently stands: Sandy Alcantara, rookies Edward Cabrera and Trevor Rogers, Elieser Hernandez and Jesus Luzardo. Pablo Lopez could potentially make a late return as well. And the club still has strong belief in Sixto Sanchez (out for the year following shoulder surgery).
“It’s just a really intriguing mix of great arms and great pitchability,” Ng said.
Now, Ng finally has a chance to see what the group looks like as a whole.
The ace keeps improving
Alcantara began this season as the Marlins’ ace and until usurped will remain their ace.
This has more to do than just his performance on the field — and Alcantara’s stats support this — but also with what he is doing when he’s not on the mound.
Alcantara, who turns 26 on Tuesday, is the elder statesman of this young rotation, the veteran among talented up-and-comers and he has taken that to heart. He spent spring training mentoring Sanchez and has taken on that mentor role with Cabrera since he joined the big-league club.
“It’s important to me,” Alcantara said. “He’s one of the big prospects of the Marlins. I’m trying to help him because he’s young. He’s going to learn a lot and I’m trying to teach him.”
“It speaks volumes about Sandy that he wants to pay it forward,” Ng added. “And I think that just speaks to his character and the type of player he is.”
On the season, Alcantara has a 3.36 ERA with a career-high 164 strikeouts against 47 walks over 171 2/3 innings. Eighteen of his 64 earned runs allowed (just shy of 30 percent) came over five innings of work — eight runs allowed in 1 1/3 innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 14, 10 runs allowed in 3 2/3 innings against the Colorado Rockies on Aug. 6. Remove those outings, and Alcantara’s ERA drops to 2.48, nearly an entire run shaved off.
“He knows what he wants to do more and is having a better feel for where he wants to go,” Marlins manager Don Mattingly said. “We’re seeing the strikeouts go up and that’s, for us, the indication that he’s starting to understand how to put guys away and where to go to do it, how the pitches sequence together. His stuff’s always good, but it’s it’s that part of the game [that’s improving] as we’re seeing the latest growth spurt.”
A final Rookie of the Year push
Rogers was the clear-cut frontrunner for National League Rookie of the Year through the first four months of the season. He led all rookies in numerous categories and was the Marlins’ lone All-Star representative.
But then family matters required him to take a step away from the game. Both his parents tested positive for COVID-19, with his mom Colleen eventually being placed on a ventilator. Both recovered, but mom has a long road back with physical therapy. Less than two weeks later, both of his grandfathers died.
Rogers returned to the mound Saturday, looking to make one final push for Rookie of the Year honors. The 23-year-old lefty has a 2.52 ERA over 21 starts so far this season with 132 strikeouts in 114 1/3 innings. Opponents are hitting just .216 against him. His 31.8 percent swing-and-miss rate is in the top 20 percentile of qualified MLB pitchers.
“I would be lying if I said I’m not pitching for that,” Rogers said. “I want to compete for that and let it fall where it may. I’ve have had a good year and I want to I want to keep it on that trajectory and finishing this season strong.”
Finally reaching The Show
Injuries delayed his debut, first a shoulder injury in 2020 and then a biceps injury prior to spring training, but Cabrera has flashed at times during his first two starts. His fastball is averaging almost 97 mph, his changup is getting swings and misses, and he’s generally inducing weak contact.
The sample size is small, but the expectations are large. The 23-year-old still has room to grow. He’ll get potentially four or five more starts at the big leagues this season.
“Clearly just based on his stuff,” Ng said, “he’s special.”
Finishing strong after injuries
Hernandez’s year began with two starts immediately followed by 60-game injured list stints, first a biceps injury and then a quad.
He has a 3.60 ERA in his four starts since his latest return (eight earned runs allowed in 20 innings with 18 strikeouts and five walks).
His stuff doesn’t jump out like the rest of the staff. Hernandez’s fastball has topped out at just 93.8 mph this year, but he gets a lot of swings and misses on both his slider (34.6 percent) and changeup (32 percent).
Settling in
After five rough starts since being traded to the Marlins (a 9.67 ERA with 20 strikeouts against 17 walks in 22 1/3 innings), Luzardo had a breakthough outing on Aug. 29 when he threw six scoreless innings and followed it up on Friday by holding the Phillies to three runs in 5 2/3 innings.
“We’re definitely making strides in the right direction,” Luzardo said.
Luzardo’s biggest strength this season has been his curveball. Opponents are hitting just .195 against it while swinging and missing 48.8 percent of the time. It has resulted in 39 of his 71 strikeouts in 2021.
Marlins manager Don Mattingly has noted Luzardo’s focus on slowing the game down as he become more comfortable with his new team. Results have started to come as of late. The hope is it continues the rest of September.
“This is kind of what we envisioned for Jesus,” Mattingly said. “This is kind of in the vision of trying to get this guy on a path that’s consistent, that he’s working on something, we can stay with it.”
Will Pablo Lopez return?
The only other question regarding the Marlins rotation is if Lopez will make a comeback and get a start or two down the stretch. Lopez hasn’t pitched for the Marlins since before the All-Star Break while dealing with a right rotator cuff strain. His rehab assignment was cut short after one appearance and he has since returned to Miami.
Ng said Lopez will return to the rotation “if he can.”
“That’s the thing,” Ng said. “This is not based on anybody’s schedule. This is just based on what he’s capable of doing. At this point, there’s no reason to push him. We don’t have any unrealistic expectations. We just want for the player to be healthy.”
Lopez started 19 games before the All-Star break, posting a 3.03 ERA with a career-high 111 strikeouts and career-best marks in batting average against (.227), WHIP (1.09), quality starts (10), strikeouts per nine innings (9.89) and strikeouts per walk (4.44) through 101 innings of work.
But it’s also worth noting that Lopez was shut down both in 2018 and 2019 — the last two full MLB seasons — with throwing shoulder injuries. Lopez’s hope, as was the hope for pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre Jr. and the Marlins organization as a whole, would be that Lopez would be able to finish the season.
“My main goal this year was to try to stay healthy and be able to make every start,” Lopez said in early August when he began throwing bullpen sessions again ahead of his since-stopped rehab assignment. “I was pretty frustrated when it didn’t happen but once I went on the IL, my main focus goes back to getting healthy again. If I’m able to come back and finish the season healthy and pitching, that will make me happy and just let the team know I’m ready to pitch going into 2022.”
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