Trade deadline, prospect watch, pitcher innings: Marlins story lines for 2nd half of 2021
The second half of the 2021 MLB season is here, and the Miami Marlins have a lot of ground to pick up with not a lot of time to do it.
The Marlins are 39-50 as they head to Philadelphia to start a four-game series with the Phillies, beginning with a doubleheader on Friday at Citizens Bank Park. They are nine games behind the first-place New York Mets in the National League East and 12 games out of the NL’s second wild-card spot.
Here are four Marlins story lines to watch as the season resumes.
Who gets dealt at the trade deadline?
At this point, it seems like it’s not a matter of if the Marlins are going to trade their top players at MLB’s July 30 deadline. Rather, it’s how many players are going to be dealt.
Center fielder Starling Marte is the main name being floated and could provide a decent return from a playoff contender. Marte leads the Marlins with 44 runs scored and 17 stolen bases while hitting .272 with a .797 OPS and six home runs.
Other likely trade options, in decreasing order of likelihood, include first baseman Jesus Aguilar, high-leverage reliever Yimi Garcia, outfielder Adam Duvall and shortstop Miguel Rojas.
Which prospects make their way to the big leagues?
The prospects question will directly impact some of the decisions the Marlins make, but a few names are obvious.
Just like the Marlins have done for the past month with Jesus Sanchez and will continue to do for the remainder of the season, the organization needs to get a solid look at Lewin Diaz to see if he can be their first baseman of the future.
Diaz, the No. 6 prospect in the Marlins’ system according to MLB Pipeline, has cooled off at the plate as of late going just 4 for 36 in his past 10 games for Triple A Jacksonville and is hitting just .212 in the minors this season. With that said, the Marlins’ like the power potential from his left-handed bat and his defense is above average. His strikeout rate this season is also just 18.9 percent. The 24-year-old has already had a couple stints at the big-league level, primarily used as a reserve while Garrett Cooper was on the injured list. He hit .118 in 17 at-bats. Both of his hits were home runs.
Outside of Diaz, the other clear call-up will be right-handed pitcher Edward Cabrera, the No. 4 prospect in the organization and No. 51 prospect in baseball. The Marlins promoted him to Triple A Jacksonville on Tuesday. Cabrera has the pitching arsenal to become a high-end big-league starting pitcher if he can stay healthy. His fastball sits in the upper 90s and has touched 100 mph. His changeup has become a consistent pitch for him as well to go along with his slider.
In seven starts this season (two with Class A Jupiter and five with Double A Pensacola), Cabrera has thrown 32 innings and has a 2.25 ERA with 44 strikeouts against six walks. His season debut was delayed by right biceps nerve inflammation that had hampered him since before the start of spring training.
If Marte is traded, it would make sense for the Marlins to give Monte Harrison and/or Lewis Brinson the first crack at center field among those in the minors. The team is going to be at a crossroads with both players sooner than later with the upcoming wave of outfielder talent behind them in the minor leagues (JJ Bleday, Peyton Burdick and Griffin Conine headlining that group). Harrison and Brinson will likely get one more chance to prove their case as to why they can help the organization long-term.
Keeping an eye on starting pitcher innings
Sandy Alcantara has already thrown 116 2/3 innings this season, the third-most in baseball. Trevor Rogers is up to 101 1/3 innings in his first full big-league season. Pablo Lopez is at 101 innings, 10 shy of his career-high at the MLB level.
They have been the Marlins’ three workhorses on the mound this season, a trio of steady producers who have kept the Marlins in just about every game they have started this season.
But with that, a reminder: The Marlins have been monitoring their starting pitchers’ innings in this first full season back since the shortened 60-game 2020 season. This is especially true for Rogers, who threw just 28 innings in seven starts last year, and Lopez, who had both his 2018 and 2019 seasons cut short due to right shoulder issues.
Alcantara and Lopez both said they want to throw 200 innings this year. That seems feasible for Alcantrara, who nearly hit that mark in 2019. Miami will likely be more cautious with Lopez.
As for Rogers, the front-runner for NL Rookie of the Year? Pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre Jr. said the goal was for the lefty to throw about 175 innings this season. Expect him to be the last starter to take the mound once the season resumes.
A lot of divisional games
Starting with Friday’s doubleheader against the Phillies, 42 of Miami’s 73 games on the back half of the All-Star break are against NL East opponents.
Broken down by opponent, Miami has 14 games left with the Mets, 12 against the Nationals, 10 against the Phillies and six against the Braves.
The Marlins went 17-17 against divisional opponents prior to the All-Star break and had winning records against the Braves (7-6), Mets (3-2) and Phillies (5-4) in that span.
Outside of the division, Miami’s other 31 games to close out the season include seven contests against the San Diego Padres (four at home, three on the road); seven with the Cincinnati Reds (four on the road, three at home); three apiece at home with the New York Yankees, Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates; three apiece on the road with the Colorado Rockies and Tampa Bay Rays; and two on the road with the Baltimore Orioles.
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