Trevor Rogers became an All-Star by ‘keeping the game simple.’ He hopes success continues
Trevor Rogers had just finished his first inning of the 2021 season. It was a frame to forget.
It took until his 10th pitch before Rogers threw a strike. He walked three of the first four batters he faced. All three of those batters scored — the first on a passed ball, the other two on a two-out double that bounced off the wall in center field. And, for good measure, Rogers walked a fourth batter at the end of a 10-pitch plate appearance before, mercifully, recording the third and final out on his 38th pitch of the inning.
Marlins manager Don Mattingly had a simple message for the rookie pitcher as he made his way to the dugout.
“Take a deep breath,” Mattingly said he told Rogers, “and to think that there’s no way your year can get any worse than that inning.”
To this point, Mattingly was right. Sure, Rogers has had a few rough moments here and there since that loss to the St. Louis Cardinals on April 5 to begin his first full big-league season, but overall he has been a pillar of consistency in a Marlins rotation that has relied upon the rookie left-hander to give them a quality outing each time he steps on the mound.
The result has been Rogers putting up numbers that rival some of MLB’s top players through the first half of the season, making him an early front-runner to be the National League Rookie of the Year.
The reward, outside of the pair of Rookie of the Month honors and Rogers proving that he can be the big-leaguer the Marlins hoped he would be when they took him in the first round of the 2017 MLB Draft, is Rogers making his way to Denver as the Marlins’ 2021 All-Star Game representative. He is expected to be available to pitch in the All-Star Game, which is set to start at 7:30 p.m. Tuesday at the Colorado Rockies’ Coors Field.
But while the accolades and honors are nice, Rogers is hoping to use this strong start to his rookie season as a launching point to a long MLB career.
“I’m just really keeping the game simple,” Rogers said, “and continuing to learn every time out there.”
‘A man on a mission’
Rogers was confident a season like this was possible even dating back to spring training when he was competing for a spot on the Opening Day roster. He took lessons from his first stint at the MLB level — seven starts, 28 innings during the abbreviated 2020 season — and tried to build on the positives (such as the 38 strikeouts) and improve on the negatives (such as lowering the 6.11 ERA and .283 batting average against).
When did it all click?
Rogers points to April 10, his second start of the season and five days after his disastrous first inning of the season.
The Marlins were in Queens, New York, facing the New York Mets. Two nights earlier, the Mets beat the Marlins on a controversial walk-off wild pitch. Opposite Rogers on the mound on this Saturday afternoon at Citi Field: Jacob deGrom, arguably the best pitcher in baseball right now.
No pressure, right?
“Facing deGrom, you’re going to have to bring your A-plus stuff,” Rogers said, “and then some.”
And that’s exactly what Rogers did. He tied a career high with 10 strikeouts. He allowed just five baserunners and at one point retired 11 consecutive batters. He held the Mets scoreless over six innings. Rogers outdueled deGrom. The Marlins won 3-0.
“That really opened my eyes to, ‘Hey, I can compete up here and I belong up here,’ ” Rogers said.
Rogers has been rolling since then and he entered the All-Star Break as one of the league’s top pitchers this season.
The proof?
You can point to his 2.31 ERA — the best mark among qualified rookies, fifth-best mark in the National League and eighth-best mark in all of MLB.
Or you can point to his 10.84 strikeouts per nine innings rate, eight-best in the NL and second-best among qualified rookies.
Or, for good measure, you can dive into some advanced analytics. According to Statcast, Rogers is ranked among the top fifth of pitchers in four categories.
His 32.7 percent swing-and-miss rate is in the 85th percentile of qualified pitchers and more than eight percentage points higher than the league average of 24.5 percent. His .285 expected weighted on-base average against (which in essence predicts how quality of contact against a pitcher impacts on-field results) is in the 82nd percentile, as is his 3.22 expected ERA and 30 percent strikeout rate.
“He’s a man on a mission,” Marlins pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre Jr. said last month.
He’s a man the Marlins have been able to rely on as well, even when he has to battle against tough lineups and his own mechanics.
Rogers has now allowed more than three runs in any of his first 18 starts of the season and has nine quality starts, which are defined as giving up fewer than three earned runs while pitching at least six innings. He has been a rock in the middle of a rotation that has only had three steady starters in Rogers, Sandy Alcantara and Pablo Lopez. Miami has used 11 other pitchers to make a combined 33 starts that were allotted to the final two spots in the rotation.
“Consistency is hard in this game at this level,” Mattingly said, “and when you get guys that consistently go out there and give you good outings every time, it doesn’t matter if they’re old or young, it’s impressive. For him being in his first year, first full season, it’s impressive.”
Now, Rogers also has to deal with the league adjusting to him. The scouting report is out. Teams know about his arsenal — the fastball that averages 94.5 mph and can hit the upper 90s, the changeup that plays off it and has opponents hitting just .179 and the slider with a 44.1 percent swing-and-miss rate that ranks 11th among starting pitchers who have thrown the pitch at least 200 times this year.
“It’s not Trevor Rogers the rookie anymore,” Mattingly said. “It’s Trevor Rogers the All-Star. ... People are hearing about him, so it’s starting to be like you might want to pay attention and game plan a little better.”
‘He’s out there trying to give us a chance’
Getting to this point is something Rogers has aimed for since he was about 5 years old growing up in Carlsbad, New Mexico.
“Always had a bat and ball in my hand since I was little,” said Rogers, who isn’t so little anymore at 6-5 and 217 pounds. “Always swinging something or throwing something.”
Little League evolved into junior league and then high school. He won a state title as a junior at Carlsbad High, going 9-2 with a 0.70 ERA and 122 strikeouts.
“That’s when the tide really flipped from, ‘Man, he’s going to be really good in college’ to, ‘Man, he might have a chance to go pretty high in the draft,’ ” said Rogers, who was committed to Texas Tech during his high school days.
The Marlins picked Rogers 13th in the 2017 MLB Draft and gave him a $3.4 million signing bonus.
Just over three years later, he made his MLB debut, throwing four shutout and one-hit innings against the Mets on Aug. 25, 2020.
A year later, he’s an MLB All-Star.
“Being an All-Star my first [full] year,” Rogers said, “it can’t get much better than that.”
But Rogers hopes it will get better than that.
He’s not resting on his laurels just yet. He’s 25 starts and 129 1/3 innings into his MLB career.
“He’s a guy that when he steps on the mound, he likes to compete,” catcher Jorge Alfaro said. “He goes out there. He doesn’t care who steps in the box. He’s out there competing. He’s out there trying to give us a chance.”
Shortstop Miguel Rojas said that while Rogers’ personality isn’t as “flashy” as some of his teammates, he’s starting to become more vocal and is starting to “be himself in the dugout and loosening up a bit” as the season has progressed.
“He’s a guy that I can see in him now something that he wasn’t able to let out before,” Rojas said. “Now, he feels comfortable, and it’s showing on the mound.”
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