A look at how the Marlins are approaching MLB Draft. Plus potential first-round targets
The culmination of another year of work by the Miami Marlins’ amateur scouting department is almost here.
The three-day, 20-round 2021 Major League Baseball Draft begins at 7 p.m. Sunday with the first round and the initial set of competitive balance selections. The Marlins have picks Nos. 16 and 31 on this first day of the draft, which will be televised on ESPN and MLB Network.
Rounds 2-10, plus the second wave of competitive balance selections, take place starting at 1 p.m. Monday, while Rounds 11-20 are on Tuesday beginning at noon. MLB Network will televise the second and third days of the draft.
It’s the next chance to enhance the Marlins’ organizational depth. Ten of the Marlins’ top-30 prospects according to MLB Pipeline were drafted in the past two years.
Here’s everything you need to know about the 2021 MLB Draft and how things apply specifically to the Marlins.
How much money do the Marlins have in their bonus pool?
The Marlins have a bonus pool of $9,949,800, the 11th-largest pool this draft and a little more than $1 million above the league average of $8,858,980.
Each team’s bonus pool is determined by the slot values of each pick in the first 10 rounds of the draft. For example, the Marlins’ No. 16 overall pick comes with a slot value of $3,745,500. That’s the signing bonus value MLB gives to a player taken with that pick. Teams are allowed to give a player a signing bonus larger or smaller than the slot value, but the team can’t spend more than 5 percent above its bonus pool — so, for the Marlins, $10,447,290 in total — or else they will lose future draft picks. Also, if a player in the top-10 rounds does not sign, his pick’s value is subtracted from the team’s bonus pool total.
Teams are able to spend up to $125,000 on draft picks in the 11th through 20th rounds without it counting toward their bonus allotment. However, any bonus above $125,000 for those selections comes out of the team’s bonus allotment.
Also, as of last year, non-drafted free agents are limited to $20,000 bonuses.
How did the Marlins take advantage of the extra month of draft prep?
The MLB Draft is normally held in early June, but the league pushed it back to mid-July this year so that it would coincide with All-Star festivities in Denver.
That means an extra month for the Marlins to scout, to mull over reports, to tinker with their draft board before putting a year’s worth of work to the test.
“At a certain point,” Marlins director of amateur scouting DJ Svihlik said, “you’ve seen the players enough. Now, let’s sit and all talk about it. What did you see? What are our reports saying? That’s an arduous process. It takes a long time. Last year, we had two months to do it. I like the fact that we have the [extra] month before the draft to do this. My guys would probably think I’m a little exhaustive when we do these things, but I find it really, really valuable.”
Svihlik said in-person scouting for the most part ended following the regional round of the NCAA tournament in early June. The month that followed included daily discussions, about two to three hours each day, “working through our lists, working through our rankings to try to flush out which player we’re going to take.”
“All of that comes from discussion and communication and talk,” Svihlik said, “and that happens over this three-to-four-week period.”
Who are the Marlins targeting with their first pick?
It’s hard to pinpoint exactly who the Marlins will select with their first pick for a couple reasons.
One: They’re picking 16th, in the middle of the first round. They had the No. 3 overall pick in 2020 and selected fourth in 2019, making it easier to narrow down their options to some of the draft’s top prospects. This year, the Marlins have to wait for half of the league to make its picks before they’re on the clock.
Two: There’s not a lot of separation among draft prospects this year after the top tier of about eight players.
“The draft does not have a generational, huge standout, obvious best prospect,” ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel said Thursday on a conference call. “I feel like there’s a top six, you could argue as many as eight that are essentially the same.
“It’s a good year to pick in the top eight,” McDaniel added later on, “and I would say it’s not a great year to pick like 10 to 15.”
With that said, while the Marlins will go the best-player-available route, it would make sense for them to prioritize position players early after only drafting pitchers in the five-round 2020 draft. Plus, Svihlik said he considers the second tier of college pitchers, the group that should be available on Day 2, to be the strength of this draft class.
Which players have mock drafts linked to the Marlins?
▪ Baseball America: Kansas State left-handed pitcher Jordan Wicks
The explanation: “Miami has done a great job with [2020 fourth-round pick] left-hander Jake Eder so far this season and it has a chance to get the top left-hander in the class at this spot.”
Baseball America also notes that Irmo (South Carolina) Dutch Fork High outfielder Will Taylor, Lewisberry (Pennsylvania) Red Land High outfielder Benny Montgomery, Kennesaw (Georgia) North Cobb High catcher Harry Ford, Bogart (Georgia) North Oconee High right-handed pitcher/shortstop Bubba Chandler, Fort Pierce Carroll Catholic outfielder Jay Allen, Haughton (Louisiana) High shortstop Peyton Stovall and Huntingburg (Indiana) Southridge High shortstop Colson Montgomery as potential options.
▪ The Athletic: Bogart (Georgia) North Oconee High right-handed pitcher/shortstop Bubba Chandler
The explanation: “Chandler is also committed to play football at Clemson, and is also really unlikely to stay on campus at this point, with multiple teams interested in him as a pitcher and a few even interested in him as a position player. The Marlins have shown interest in him on the mound and are generally linked to high-ceiling guys.”
▪ MLB.com’s Jim Callis: Kennesaw (Georgia) North Cobb High catcher Harry Ford
The explanation: “The Marlins have been tied to several of the best high school athletes, including Benny Montgomery, Ford, Chandler and Taylor. They also could be in play for any of the second-tier collegians who might be available.”
▪ MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo: Kansas State left-handed pitcher Jordan Wicks
The explanation: “Don’t be surprised if the Marlins get creative given they have a comp pick at No. 31, but Wicks is definitely among a group of six or seven players they think could be available to them. There are a host of high school bats who could be in play here as well.”
▪ ESPN: Kennesaw (Georgia) North Cobb High catcher Harry Ford
The explanation: “Ford is a nice value here and I’m hearing mostly the second tier of college pitching (Hoglund, Bednar) or second tier of prep bats (Allen) at this pick, along with a two-way Bubba Chandler.”
McDaniel, who put together ESPN’s mock draft, also has the Marlins taking Miami University right-handed pitcher Sam Bachman at No. 31 and Alabama second baseman Peyton Wilson at No. 52.
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