In a home ballpark that ‘makes you pay,’ Marlins need to make adjustments on offense
All Brian Anderson could do was laugh.
He turned on a Genesis Cabrera fastball in the seventh inning Wednesday, sending it flying toward right-center field at loanDepot park almost 100 mph off the bat. Anderson turned around first base, looking as if he had finally gotten the hit the Miami Marlins needed to spark a late rally against the St. Louis Cardinals.
The ball carried a projected 394 feet ... and straight into Dylan Carlson’s glove on the warning track.
Another hard-hit baseball. Another long drive. Another empty result. Anderson made his way back to the dugout.
“This place makes you pay,” Marlins manager Don Mattingly said.
Luck and offensive production were not on the Marlins’ side during their first homestand. There was a lot of hard contact (more than one-third of their balls in play had an exit velocity of 95 mph or greater) and a steady rate of balls going in play (just a 22.3 percent strikeout rate, tied for the 10th best in the league). The results just didn’t come.
Their opponents, meanwhile, thrived.
Miami went 1-5 during its first two series at loanDepot park and was outscored by the Tampa Bay Rays and St. Louis Cardinals by a combined 29-19 score. The Marlins were shut out twice and held to two runs or fewer in two other contests. The Rays and Cardinals scored 15 of their 29 runs — 51.7 percent — on a combined nine home runs.
Maybe a change of scenery will help. The Marlins begin a seven-game road trip Thursday against the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves. During the pandemic-shortened season, the Marlins went 20-14 in the 34 games played away from their home ballpark.
“One of the things you talk about in this league is, ‘Turn the page,’” Mattingly said. “We’re six games in, hasn’t gone very well. That can’t define us.”
But what went wrong on Miami’s end offensively during that first homestand?
According to Statcast, their long-distanced balls in play simply just didn’t leave the ballpark. The Marlins put 14 balls in play that traveled at least a projected 350 feet in their first six games of the season.
The results? Two home runs, two doubles, one triple, one sacrifice fly, eight flyouts.
Statcast projects the Marlins should have a collective .516 batting average on these 14 balls in play, based on exit velocity and launch angle among other factors. The actual batting average? .385. Of the 27 teams with at least 10 balls in play that have gone at least 350 feet, just seven have a worse differential.
“You’ve got to hit it clean,” Mattingly said, “and it’s got to be to the right area of the ballpark.”
The Marlins far too often did not hit it to the right area of the ballpark. All but two of these balls put into play were hit between left-center and right-center field. The wall in left-center is 382 feet from home plate, 407 at center field and 392 in right-center.
Meanwhile, none went to right field and just two were hit to the power alley in left field — Garrett Cooper’s 364-foot home run and a Jesus Aguilar fly ball in the ninth inning on Opening Day that went 353 feet but died at the warning track.
“I thought I had a chance because I hit it in the corner,” Aguilar said of his near home run, “but I didn’t get it good. ... Maybe if we are in a different park, there might have been a different result, but that’s the game.”
St. Louis and Tampa, meanwhile, excelled at hitting deep drives down the left- and right-field lines. Seven of their nine home runs went to either left or right field.
“We have to make the adjustments that we have to make offensively,” Mattingly said, “but there have been balls that have been hit good.”
Missed home run opportunities aside, the Marlins overall have struggled in key situations despite the fact that they are getting steady contact.
Heading into Thursday, they ranked 24th in batting average with runners on base (.213) and 25th with runners in scoring position (.180). They have left 43 runners on base in six games.
“The at-bats are fine. Our at-bats are good. We were seeing good pitches,” shortstop Miguel Rojas said. “We are fighting in our at-bats, and we’re putting a lot of runners on base. That’s what is important — getting guys on base. Now is what’s the next step, following the plan, like make sure that you’re doing your job instead of trying to hit a homer, or something like that. That’s exactly what I’m seeing. I can’t really talk for the rest of the guys, but what I’m seeing is we are trying to do too much, especially in that situation where we get runners in scoring position.”
This story was originally published April 8, 2021 at 11:23 AM.
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