Miami Marlins ‘feel we have a good club,’ but just how good will they be in 2021?
Don Mattingly didn’t need many words to sum up his thoughts on his team.
“We think we are good,” the Miami Marlins’ manager said toward the end of spring training. “I’ll leave it at that.”
But just how good will his Marlins be in 2021?
Good enough to compete in the National League East, viewed as arguably the toughest division in baseball this year?
Good enough to contend for a playoff spot and make the postseason for a second consecutive year after going 31-29 and advancing to the National League Division Series during MLB’s pandemic-shortened 2020 season?
Good enough to, once again, prove naysayers wrong?
The first of 162 tests takes place at 4:10 p.m. Thursday, when the Marlins open the 2021 season with a three-game home series against the World Series runner-up Tampa Bay Rays at the newly named loanDepot park, their home stadium formerly known as Marlins Park.
“[People think] last year was a little bit of a fluke with 60 games,” Mattingly said. “I think none of that matters, really. It’s more about us. We feel we have a good club.”
Being doubted
Meanwhile, the Marlins know those outside the organization still don’t believe they are a legitimate contender yet, regardless of last season’s success.
Miami is projected to win between 68 and 72 games this season depending on which website you visit. The roster on paper is improved with the addition of outfielder Adam Duvall and the reshaping of its bullpen.
But Miami has 76 combined games against the Atlanta Braves, New York Mets, Washington Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies.
There’s doubt about Miami’s potential externally.
But not internally.
“It helps me stay motivated,” third baseman Brian Anderson said. “Other clubs are definitely going to be looking at us and preparing for us. Now, it’s going out, trusting ourselves, trusting the talent we have.”
Starting pitching will be key
If this club is going be competitive in 2021, they will look to the mound as a starting point.
Mattingly and general manager Kim Ng have both expressed the sentiment multiple times throughout spring training.
The Marlins will go as their starting pitching goes.
The rotation is young — none of their starters is older than 25 years old — but the talent is undeniable.
Sandy Alcantara, at 25 years old, is the workhorse and leader of the group. He’s the only one to make at least 30 starts in a season and will be the club’s Opening Day starter for a second consecutive year.
Pablo Lopez and Elieser Hernandez, both of whom are coming off breakout 2020 seasons, follow as quasi-veterans. Lefty Trevor Rogers rounds out the four-man rotation to begin the season.
Sixto Sanchez, the club’s top prospect and a unanimous top-25 prospect in all of baseball, will begin the season with the club’s alternate training site. His spring training progression was delayed twice, first with a visa issue and then with a false positive COVID-19 test and they don’t want to rush him.
Right-hander Nick Neidert as well as lefties Daniel Castano and Braxton Garrett are waiting in the wings. Edward Cabrera, Miami’s top pitching prospect yet to make his MLB debut, is sidelined with nerve inflammation in his right bicep.
Other topics to follow
▪ Jorge Alfaro’s progression: Alfaro is going to be Miami’s everyday catcher in 2021. Whether he keeps that role beyond this year will be determined by what happens over the next six months.
Alfaro has proven to be a serviceable catcher since the Marlins acquired him from the Philadelphia Phillies as part of the J.T. Realmuto trade. His raw power at the plate is apparent whenever he makes contact.
But his strikeout rate (33.6 percent during the past two years) is way too high, and his defense has been inconsistent enough to the point that he was benched in favor of Chad Wallach during Miami’s playoff run.
▪ How the lineup fares: Duvall was the Marlins’ only position player addition this offseason, but Miami is still optimistic about getting steady production out of its lineup this year.
Corey Dickerson and Starling Marte, the club’s most consistent hitters, will generally hold the top two spots. The Marlins believe Dickerson, who played through a pair of personal issues in the shortened 60-game season, will have a bounceback year and are looking forward to a full season with Marte in the lineup after acquiring him at the trade deadline on Aug. 30.
Two of Duvall, Jesus Aguilar and Garrett Cooper — whichever combination is playing first base and right field — will normally bat third and fourth. Anderson is fifth. Jazz Chisholm Jr., who won the starting second base job in spring training, will be sixth. Alfaro and shortstop Miguel Rojas will be seven and eight, with the pitcher rounding out the lineup.
▪ Will the latest bullpen overhaul pay off: The Marlins’ bullpen, hit hard by the COVID-19 outbreak at the start of the 2020, finished last season with the fifth-worst ERA in baseball last year (5.50) while also ranking in the bottom five in WHIP (1.55, 26th), batting average against (.269, 27th), strikeout-to-walk ratio (1.58, 30th) and home runs allowed (42, T-27th).
Only two players from that bullpen remain in Yimi Garcia and Richard Bleier. A wave of offseason acquisitions in Anthony Bass, Dylan Floro, Adam Cimber, John Curtiss, Ross Detwiler, Paul Campbell and Zach Pop have the Marlins optimistic their relief pitcher corps will be better this season.
This story was originally published March 31, 2021 at 1:26 PM.
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