Marlins’ bullpen needs upgrades but not necessarily a complete overhaul
Miami Marlins general manager Kim Ng made no mistake about the area her team needs to upgrade this offseason.
“Probably our glaring spot that we need to really focus on is the bullpen,” Ng said last week. “We lost several guys out of the bullpen and we need some help back there.”
The numbers tell a good part of the story. The Marlins had the fifth-worst bullpen ERA in baseball last year (5.50), while also ranking in the bottom five in WHIP (1.55, 26th), batting average against (.269, 27th), strikeout-to-walk ratio (1.58, 30th) and home runs allowed (42, T-27th).
But the situation might not be as bad as the numbers indicate. The Marlins’ bullpen was a revolving door of pitchers during last season’s playoff run. Eight of their original 12 were sidelined after the first weekend due to COVID-19, putting the group in disarray. Three of their replacements who fared well had season-ending injuries before throwing 10 innings.
So, yes, there’s work to do. But a complete overhaul like last offseason? That might not necessarily be needed. Let’s dive in.
Dividing the group
For the sake of this exercise, let’s divide the overall bullpen and the 28 players who had at least one relief appearance for the Marlins last season into six groups based on their usage last year and their expected role with the club in 2021.
▪ The core group. This consists of the nonprospect players who are still on the 40-man roster and were either on the Opening Day roster or carved out a significant bullpen role in 2020 and should compete for spots in 2021. The six who fit this group: Yimi Garcia, Richard Bleier, James Hoyt, Stephen Tarpley, Dan Castano (in a long-relief/swing starter role) and Jeff Brigham.
The positive: This group was effective, putting up a 2.78 ERA and a 2.19 strikeout-to-walk ratio (59 strikeouts, 27 walks). The downside: The six only threw 61 2/3 combined innings, accounting for just 26.7 percent of the bullpen’s 230 2/3 innings (a caveat: Castano threw 29 2/3 total innings, but only one of those outings — 6 1/3 shutout innings against the Yankees — came in relief, so that’s the only one factoring into these numbers).
Although nothing is set in stone, this is the group the Marlins will most likely build their bullpen around when it comes to their in-house candidates. Garcia (0.60 ERA, 19 strikeouts vs five walks in 15 innings, 0.93 WHIP) is their top back-end reliever. Bleier and Hoyt worked high-leverage situations. Tarpley adds another lefty whose overall numbers (11 earned runs in 11 innings, .282 average against) were skewed by two bad outings.
They also have Adam Cimber, the submarine-throwing right-hander they acquired last week from the Cleveland Indians. The Marlins will still likely need to sign at least one or two more relievers and have no shortage of possibilities. The market is flooded with relievers including Archie Bradley, Hansel Robles, Miami native Carlos Rodon, Brad Hand, Kirby Yates and Roberto Osuna.
▪ The key players no longer on the team. These are players who were either on the Opening Day roster or at the alternate training site at the start of season who played a significant role in the bullpen and are now free agents. Four players fit this group: Brandon Kintzler, Brad Boxberger, Nick Vincent and Josh A. Smith. Combined, the quartet threw 89 innings (or 38.6 percent of the Marlins’ relief innings in 2020), putting together a 4.34 ERA and 66 strikeouts against 35 walks. Kintzler’s 12 saves were tied for the fourth most in baseball.
These first two groups, which consist of the bulk of the pitchers the Marlins had hoped to use in 2020 before the COVID-19 outbreak sent the bullpen sideways, put up a very respectable 3.70 ERA (a mark that would have ranked seventh in MLB) while accounting for nearly two-thirds of the Marlins’ innings pitched out of the bullpen (150 2/3 of 230 2/3 innings).
Where things fell apart
So why did the bullpen have such lopsided numbers this year? Let’s continue.
▪ The short-term COVID-19 replacements. These were the nine pitchers who joined the Marlins from outside the organization following the coronavirus outbreak at some point after the opening weekend but pitched fewer than 10 innings each. That group, in alphabetical order: Brett Eibner, Brandon Leibrandt, Brian Moran, Mike Morin, Johan Quezada, Justin Shafer, Josh D. Smith, Jesus Tinoco and Pat Venditte.
Now, a few of these pitchers (Morin, Leibrandt, Tinoco, Venditte) did well in their short stints but the group collectively posted a 5.67 ERA (25 earned runs allowed over 39 2/3 innings). Eibner, Shafer and Moran were responsible for 18 of the 28 earned runs this group gave up despite pitching just 12 2/3 innings.
Morin is the only pitcher among this group still with the organization.
▪ The prospects. Five of the Marlins’ top 30 prospects according to MLB Pipeline at the start of the season — Nick Neidert, Jorge Guzman, Jordan Holloway, Sterling Sharp and Alex Vesia — threw 19 1/3 innings of relief. Their stats: a 10.24 ERA, 28 hits allowed (including seven home runs), 12 strikeouts and 16 walks.
Sharp, a Rule 5 Draft selection last December, was sent back to the Washington Nationals midseason. Guzman and Holloway each only made one appearance and will go back to their spots in the minor leagues next season.
▪ The position player. Logan Forsythe, a utility infielder signed as one of the Marlins’ COVID-19 replacements, threw an inning of relief in the Marlins’ 11-4 loss to the Mets on Aug. 17. He gave up one run in that inning.
▪ The remainders. Three pitchers remain: Jordan Yamamoto, Robert Dugger and Ryne Stanek.
Yamamoto is a starter by trade but made one regrettable relief appearance in the Marlins’ infamous 29-9 loss to the Atlanta Braves. Yamamoto was charged with 12 earned runs on 11 hits (including four home runs) and two walks in 2 2/3 innings that night.
Dugger, also a starter by trade, made three relief appearances after returning from COVID-19. He gave up 11 earned runs over 7 1/3 innings. He is now with the Seattle Mariners, who claimed him off waivers on Monday.
Stanek, nontendered last week, gave up eight earned runs over 10 innings this season.
Combined, that’s 31 earned runs (just shy of 22 percent of the total earned runs given up by the Marlins’ bullpen) in just 20 innings (or 8.7 percent of total relief innings).
Without those three factored in, Miami’s bullpen ERA drops from 5.50 to 4.70.
.JPG)