Pablo Lopez made strides in 2020. Can the rest of the Marlins’ rotation follow suit?
Mel Stottlemyre Jr. gave a fair warning.
It was back in summer camp, fresh off a three-plus-month hiatus due to the coronavirus pandemic and weeks before the 2020 season began. The Miami Marlins’ pitching coach made it known that Pablo Lopez was on the verge of a breakout season.
“This guy is on the upward swing of things. I’m so proud of the work that he’s put in,” the Marlins’ pitching coach said then. “He’s starting to settle in, become comfortable. We’ve added the pitches. You talk to our hitters and hear the feedback, and the response they have about Pablo, this is a changed man.
“I’m ready to watch this kid soar.”
Stottlemyre’s prediction proved to be correct. Lopez, a 24-year-old righty, dazzled in his third big-league season with the Marlins. He assumed the ace role in the rotation for the first half of the season after three starters — including Opening Day starter Sandy Alcantara — were among the 19 sidelined with COVID-19. He made every scheduled start in the pandemic-shortened 60-game regular season.
And while he didn’t carry the hype of Alcantara or top prospect Sixto Sanchez, Lopez quietly served as the Marlins’ top pitcher in 2020.
In 11 starts, Lopez set career-best marks in ERA (3.61), walks and hits per inning (1.19), strikeouts per nine innings (9.26), hits allowed per nine innings (7.85) and home runs allowed per nine innings (0.63).
“When he came back for the summer, it just seemed like everything got fluid all of a sudden,” Marlins manager Don Mattingly said during the team’s playoff run. “He had confidence in his delivery and everything else. I think the same things we’re seeing from Sandy we’re now seeing from Pablo, which tells you sometimes it just takes time for guys to keep developing and gaining that confidence and trust.”
Lopez’s leap in production also in theory can serve as a template for the Marlins’ budding pitching prospects to follow as they prepare for what figures to be a 2021 spring training that could feature more than a dozen pitchers competing for five starting rotation spots.
Lopez credited his teammates and the friendly internal competition in part for his success.
“They gave me that confidence to take the mound every five days and really feel comfortable with my stuff,” Lopez said. “On the mental side, having that confidence and that bond that we created really helped me. I knew they were playing for me so I was trying to play for something bigger than myself. I think that was a big thing. This offseason, I’m just trying to keep that mentality, keep trying to find that extra gear that will help me get a little better for next year and being able to help the team even more.”
And with the Marlins looking to build on their 2020 season that included a winning record for the first time since 2009 and a playoff berth for the first time since 2003, the team’s young-yet-talented starting pitching corps will need to make yet another step forward.
“Look at the pitchers that we have in our organization,” Marlins CEO Derek Jeter said. “It’s gonna be competitive. We have guys that were here in Miami and we’ve got more coming. Competition brings out the best in everyone. That’s what we thrive on.”
Youth at the top
At the top, the Marlins have three pitchers they believe they can pencil into their rotation from the start in Alcantara, Lopez and Elieser Hernandez.
The first two feel obvious. Alcantara is the lone starting pitcher in the organization with an All-Star Game nomination and continued to build on his success from late in the 2019 season even though he was sidelined for a month due to COVID-19. In addition to his solid stat line (3.00 ERA, .226 batting average against, 2.6 strikeout-to-walk ratio), Alcantara began expressing his confidence off the mound, exuding a newfound swagger as the season continued. Lopez, meanwhile, morphed into a steady contributor, adding a cutter to his arsenal and providing more distinction between his four-seam fastball and his sinker.
Hernandez, meanwhile, impressed early (3.16 ERA, 34 strikeouts vs five walks in 25 2/3 innings through six starts) before sustaining a season-ending right lat injury.
The trio serves as a prime example of the high-quality and controllable starting pitching depth the Marlins have been striving to build in the organization since the new ownership group took over. Alcantara, heading into his first year of arbitration, has three years of team control remaining. Lopez and Hernandez are under team control for four more seasons.
The Marlins also have a key decision coming on Wednesday’s nontender deadline with Jose Urena, who is expected to be due about $4 million next season as he heads into his final season of arbitration. Urena has made 94 appearances (77 starts) for the Marlins during the past four seasons with a 4.22 ERA and sustained a fractured right forearm in Miami’s regular-season finale against the New York Yankees on Sept. 27.
Tasting the big leagues
Meanwhile, four of the Marlins’ top-six pitching prospects and eight rookie pitchers still with the organization made their MLB debuts last season, all with mixed results.
The highlight of the group, of course, was Sanchez, the Marlins’ top prospect and the No. 19 prospect in all of baseball according to MLB Pipeline. His first five starts were spectacular, posting a 1.69 ERA with 29 strikeouts against five walks over 32 innings. He also shut out the Chicago Cubs for five innings in his postseason debut.
Sanchez’s performance when he faced teams multiple times? That’s another story entirely. He gave up a combined 13 runs in 10 innings (an 11.70 ERA) with 16 hits, nine walks and just six strikeouts in his second outing against the Nationals and his second and third starts against the Braves.
Lefty Trevor Rogers, the Marlins’ first-round pick in 2017 and their ninth-ranked prospect, had a 6.11 ERA in seven regular-season starts. Two rough outings in September (eight earned runs in three innings against the Phillies on Sept. 11 and five earned runs in four innings against the Braves on Sept. 21) bloated that final number.
Braxton Garrett, Miami’s first-round pick in 2016, started two games (both on the back end of doubleheaders), and put up a 5.87 ERA in 7 2/3 innings.
Top prospects Nick Neidert (No. 11 prospect in the system), Jorge Guzman (No. 25) and Jordan Holloway (No. 26) all made their debuts as well, albeit exclusively out of the bullpen and in limited fashion.
“When you have young guys, you’re gonna have to have patience,” Jeter said. “You have to understand that, look, they’re gonna have success and they’re gonna struggle. It happens to everyone, but you need to see them bounce back. This year,
Waiting in the wings
And the Marlins have even more talent coming.
Edward Cabrera, the club’s sixth-ranked prospect, could have potentially made his big-league debut last season if not for a minor shoulder injury early in the season. Cabrera’s pure stuff (a high-90s fastball with a plus changeup and slider) rivals that of Sanchez and Alcantara.
There’s also 2020 first-round pick Max Meyer, who dazzled for two-plus years at the University of Minnesota and was at the team’s alternate training site for the entirety of the shortened season.
Dan Castano, who might eventually find himself in a long-relief role, had a 3.03 ERA last season in seven appearances (six starts).
Jordan Yamamoto and Robert Dugger will still get looks as well in spring training.
“It’s a great feeling to go into next season with the kind of rotation that we have,” Lopez said. “We feed off each other. When they take the mound, I’m their biggest cheerleader. ... They just make me want to go out and compete myself. Really excited for all the things we can accomplish.”
This story was originally published November 27, 2020 at 10:03 AM.
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