Breaking down all the Miami Marlins’ scenarios to clinch a spot in the playoffs
Time is running out for the Miami Marlins to clinch their playoff spot.
The Marlins enter Thursday’s series finale with the Atlanta Braves with a 28-28 record and a half-game lead over the Philadelphia Phillies for second place in the NL East with four games left on their schedule. The top two teams in each division plus the next best two teams in each league advance to the postseason this year.
Miami is still able to make the playoffs without outside help. FanGraphs has their odds of reaching the playoffs at 72.6 percent. But if they don’t snap their current four-game losing streak and get back into the win column, scoreboard watching is going to become paramount over these final few days, especially should Miami slip into competing for one of the two wild card spots.
The simplest path
Miami’s best path to making the playoffs is what it has been just about all season: Finish in the top two of the division. The NL East title is already off the table with the Braves running away with their third consecutive divisional crown. Now, the Marlins’ goal needs to be holding off the Phillies for second place.
To do that, the Marlins simply just have to win more than Philadelphia over these final four days.
Wild Card Watch
However, should the Phillies jump the Marlins for second place in the NL East (we’ll get into all the possibilities in a moment), the Marlins will basically be competing with four teams for three playoff spots in the Cincinnati Reds, Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants. One of the Reds, Brewers and Cardinals will make the playoffs by virtue of finishing second in the NL Central, leaving the remaining two teams to compete with the Giants and Marlins for two wild card spots.
Here’s where each team stands heading into Thursday, along with their remaining schedules
▪ Marlins: 28-28 (20-19 intradivision), @ Braves Thursday, @ New York Yankees Friday-Sunday
▪ Reds: 29-28 (21-19), 3 @ Twins Friday-Sunday
▪ Cardinals: 27-26 (19-16), 5 vs. Brewers Thursday-Sunday, 2 @ Detroit Tigers Monday (if games would impact playoff standings)
▪ Brewers: 27-28 (17-18), 5 vs. Cardinals Thursday-Sunday
▪ Giants: 28-27 (17-18), 1 vs. Colorado Rockies Thursday; 4 vs. San Diego Padres Friday-Sunday
From there, here are the tiebreakers for teams with identical records:
1.) Head-to-head record. This will only apply for teams in the same division because of MLB’s regionalized schedules for the 2020 season.
2.) Intradivisional record, or a team’s record against the other four teams in its division. That’s the record in parenthesis above for each team
3.) Record over final 20 division games. Should there still be a tie, keep backtracking by one division game until the tie is broken.
Now, let’s jump into the scenarios.
If the Miami Marlins win at least three games...
They are in the playoffs. No outside help is needed.
Winning three games would give the Marlins a 31-29 record. Only the Phillies could tie Miami for second place in the NL East at that point, and it would require them to win all three of their games against the Rays. Even then, Miami owns the tiebreaker because of its 7-3 record against the Phillies this season.
If the Miami Marlins win two games...
Miami is 30-30 on the season. The Marlins would need the Phillies to lose at least one of their final three games in order to hold onto second place in the NL East. Should Philadelphia sweep Tampa Bay, the Marlins would need any of the following scenarios to secure a Wild Card spot:
▪ If the Reds finish second in the NL Central, Miami needs at least two of the following to occur: The Giants win no more than two of their final five games, the Brewers win no more than three games against the Cardinals, AND/OR the Cardinals win no more than two of their final seven games (assuming the Cardinals make up their final two missing games against the Tigers on Monday).
▪ If the Cardinals finish second in the NL Central, Miami needs at least two of the following to occur: The Giants win no more than two of their final five games; the Brewers win no more than three of their final five games (two if one of Miami’s losses is to Atlanta), AND/OR the Reds lose all three of their games to the Twins.
▪ If the Brewers finish second in the NL Central, Miami needs the Giants to win no more than two of their final five games, the Reds to lose all three against the Twins AND/OR the Cardinals to win no more than two of their final seven games (assuming the Cardinals make up their two missing games against the Tigers on Monday).
If the Miami Marlins win one game...
Miami is 29-31 on the season. The Marlins would need the Phillies to lose at least two of their final three games in order to hold onto second place in the NL East. Should Philadelphia win two of three against Tampa Bay, the Marlins would need any of the following scenarios to secure a Wild Card spot:
▪ If the Reds finish second in the NL Central, Miami needs at least two of the following to happen: The Giants win no more than one of their final five games, the Brewers win no more than two games against the Cardinals, AND/OR the Cardinals win no more than two of their final seven games (assuming the Cardinals make up their final two missing games against the Tigers on Monday).
▪ If the Cardinals finish second in the NL Central, Miami needs the Giants to win no more than one of their final five games AND the Brewers to win no more than two games against the Cardinals. The Reds, regardless of how they fare against the Twins, will finish ahead of the Marlins in the wild card standings.
▪ If the Brewers finish second in the NL Central, Miami needs the Giants to win no more than one of their final five games AND the Cardinals to win no more than two of their final seven games. The Reds, regardless of how they fare against the Twins, will finish ahead of the Marlins in the wild card standings.
If the Miami Marlins win zero games...
Miami is 28-32 on the season. The Marlins would need the Phillies to lose all three of their final games in order to hold onto second place in the NL East. Should Philadelphia win at least one against Tampa Bay, the Marlins would at best be the No. 8 seed.
For that to happen, the Giants would need to lose all five of their remaining games (putting them also at 28-32, with Miami winning the tiebreaker), the Colorado Rockies would need to lose at least one game against the Arizona Diamondbacks, the New York Mets lose at least one of four against the Washington Nationals AND one of the following:
▪ The Cardinals go at least 4-1 against the Brewers. The Brewers would be at best 28-32, with Miami owning the tiebreaker over both Milwaukee and San Francisco.
▪ The Brewers go 4-1 against the Cardinals AND St. Louis drops both games against the Tigers. The Brewers or Reds would finish second in the NL Central; the other would be the No. 7 seed. The Cardinals would be eliminated.
▪ The Brewers go 5-0 against the Cardinals AND St. Louis goes either 1-1 or 0-2 against the Tigers. The Brewers or Reds would finish second in the NL Central; the other would be the No. 7 seed depending on the Reds’ three-game series with the Twins. The Cardinals would be eliminated.
This story was originally published September 24, 2020 at 10:10 AM.
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