The Marlins are eyeing the playoffs. Their X-factor to make it happen: Starting pitching.
Miami Marlins manager Don Mattingly has a luxury most teams in his position envy.
Any given day, any given game, Mattingly is able to send a starting pitcher to the mound that he is confident will give him a strong outing.
The rotation now consists of Sandy Alcantara, the Marlins’ Opening Day starter; Sixto Sanchez, the organization’s top prospect; Pablo Lopez, who lived up to a de-facto ace role over the first month of the year while three starters were sidelined with COVID-19; Trevor Rogers, the ninth-ranked prospect in the organization; and Jose Urena, the club’s Opening Day starter in 2018 and 2019 who made his season debut on Monday.
The Marlins’ rotation went through hurdles early on as the team maneuvered through the COVID-19 outbreak following the first weekend of the series, but the quintet now looks like to be the strongest it has been all season heading into the final three weeks of the regular season.
And the rotation will likely serve as the biggest determining factor in the Marlins’ quest to reach the postseason with three weeks left in the season.
“It’s going to be extremely important,” Lopez said. “It’s also going to be a lot of fun to watch, a lot of fun to see. I get front-row seats to watch those guys pitch every five days. I see the focus when they’re working on their craft and their execution. ... Our job is to try to give our team the best chance to stay in the ballgame. We have the arms to do it.”
By the numbers
And they’ve certainly done it so far.
Heading into Tuesday’s game against the Atlanta Braves, the Marlins’ starting pitchers collectively have a 3.94 ERA, the lowest mark in the National League East and the ninth-best mark in Major League Baseball.
For context, the Marlins’ club record for lowest starting pitcher ERA is 3.76, originally set in 1996 and matched in 1997 when the team won its first of two World Series titles.
How does the rest of the NL East compare? The Philadelphia Phillies are the only other team in the division that ranks in the top 10 (10th, 3.99). The New York Mets (23rd, 5.13), Braves (27th, 5.49) and Washington Nationals (28th, 5.62) are among the bottom 10 of MLB and three of the bottom four in the NL.
What’s more: Miami’s starting pitchers have held opponents to three runs or fewer over 22 of the past 24 games. Overall, Marlins starters have posted seven scoreless outings this year as well, tied with the Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs for second-most in the National League. Only the Los Angeles Dodgers have more with eight.
The Marlins have had this success despite having a dozen pitchers start at least once through the first 36 games of this 60-game season. That was a by-product of their COVID-19 outbreak at the start of the season. Eighteen players were sidelined, including Alcantara, Urena and Caleb Smith (who has since been sent to the Arizona Diamondbacks in the Starling Marte trade).
With starting pitching experience at a minimum, Lopez stepped up and has provided a steadying presence on the mound during what has become a breakout season.
He’s the only Marlins starting pitcher to make every scheduled start. His very-Miami 3.05 ERA ranks 18th overall and 11th in the NL among qualified starting pitchers. He is on pace to set career-best marks in strikeout-to-walk ratio (4.22), strikeouts per nine innings (8.92) and home runs allowed per nine innings (0.47). Lopez is also inducing ground balls at a 60.5-percent rate, more than nine percentage points above the MLB average.
Lopez credits pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre Jr. for challenging him during spring training, the three-plus month layoff and summer camp for allowing him to exceed expectations.
“He told me to challenge myself,” Lopez said, “but he also gave me all the advice, all the feedback that I needed to hear at the time. ... He’s great at what he does.”
The return of Alcantara and Urena from COVID-19 bring more experience to the group that the Marlins hoped to have all season.
Alcantara, the team’s Opening Day starter this year after a strong finish to an All-Star 2019 season, has a 3.78 ERA through three starts. Three of the 11 runs he has given come came in his first start back after missing six weeks due to COVID-19.
“Every time he goes out there, he’s a bulldog,” outfielder Corey Dickerson said. “He’s very confident. He believes in his stuff, and he should. The guys behind him are so talented and so good. Like I said a week ago, this rotation can be pretty lights-out. It’s going to be really fun down this last stretch playing behind them.”
Urena, who joined the rotation after Elieser Hernandez went on the injured list after a strong season himself (3.16 ERA in six starts), held the Braves to three earned runs over five innings in his first start of the season on Monday.
Prospects living up to billing
Another net positive to come out of the rotation this year: Two of the club’s top prospects in Sanchez and Rogers have been given an extended look at the big-league level.
“Those guys are going to force their way into the big leagues,” Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill said.
If the two keep pitching the way they have, neither will be heading back down to the minors anytime soon.
Sanchez, the No. 22 overall prospect in baseball according to MLB Pipeline, has given up just five earned runs over 19 innings of work in his first three starts. He has struck out 19 batters while walking just one.
And while the long ball has hurt him — all five runs Sanchez has surrendered have come via three home runs — more than 75 percent of his outs on balls in play have come via groundballs.
Rogers, the Marlins’ first-round pick out of Carlsbad (New Mexico) High School in 2017, has given up five earned runs with 21 strikeouts against eight walks over 15 innings of work. He had his best start of the year Sunday against the Tampa Bay Rays, striking out 10 batters despite being burned by three solo home runs for a no-decision.
“Those guys have been doing a great job,” Aclantara said. “I think they’re going to be really good pitchers for the Marlins for a long time. I feel happy having those guys here with us.”
Depth is key
Should the Marlins make the playoffs (they enter Tuesday tied with the San Francisco Giants for the National League’s two wild card spots), starting pitching could give the Marlins an advantage to play the spoiler role.
Consider this: With the 16-team playoff field in place for this season, every team begins the playoffs with a best-of-3 series.
Should the Marlins’ starting pitching situation hold (and should they make the postseason), their rotation could serve as an equalizer during the first round.
But before the Marlins can think about playoffs, they have to get through a gauntlet to close out the season. This includes four doubleheaders over a 10-game stretch at Marlins Park and no off days for the remainder of the season.
That means at least two more starters who are currently at the team’s alternate training site in Jupiter are going to get time on the mound unless Miami opts to for bullpen days.
Mattingly knows he will need more than the five starting pitchers he has left to get through these final three weeks of the season.
Nick Neidert, the Marlins’ 11th-ranked prospect who began the year in the bullpen, is a likely candidate to make spot starts in doubleheaders. As is Daniel Castano, a 25-year-old lefty who has a 4.11 ERA in four starts this year, is another. The Marlins also have Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett, respectively their Nos. 6 and 7 prospects, in Jupiter. Cabrera, however, dealt with a minor shoulder injury and likely would not be built up to work as a starter by the end of the regular season. Garrett is not on the 40-man roster, meaning the Marlins would have to make even more roster moves to accommodate him making his big-league debut this year.
“The depth is one of the things that we talked about,” Mattingly said. “It’s probably the reason Mike and the front office felt comfortable making the move to bring in a guy like Starling. We’re confident in those guys, and even those guys in Jupiter have a chance to help us.”
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