The NL East continues to get stronger. Can the Miami Marlins keep pace?
Michael Hill knows the challenge ahead.
The Miami Marlins’ president of baseball operations is navigating his way through the offseason as Year 3 of the club’s latest rebuild — their last rebuild, he hopes.
Under a new ownership group led by Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter, the Marlins tore down the major-league team to its bare bones in favor of stocking a farm system of top prospects. They suffered through two more years of dread to the tune of a combined 120-213 record.
But now, they are starting to see the light at the end the end of the tunnel even though there is still work to be done.
Their opposition isn’t going to make it any easier, either.
Yes, the Marlins have made some incremental moves that should improve their roster. Adding Jonathan Villar and Jesus Aguilar and Yimi Garcia provide signs that Miami is making an effort to field a more competitive team in 2020. A share of their top prospects acquired in trades over the past two offseasons are making an impact as well. That’s good.
The bad: It’s likely still not going to be enough to close the gap with anyone in the National League East.
The World Series-winning Washington Nationals, despite losing third baseman Anthony Rendon to free agency, return of bulk of their playmakers. The division champion Atlanta Braves are getting better, too. The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets are striving to make upgrades, too.
“We feel like we’re in the toughest division in baseball,” Hill said at MLB’s annual winter meetings.
The Marlins came into this offseason not planning to be contenders in the mega-contract sweepstakes that some of MLB’s top superstars received this season.
Five players have already received deals worth more than $100 million this offseason. Two are to pitchers in the NL East. The Nationals re-signed Stephen Strasburg for seven years and $245 million. The Phillies signed Zack Wheeler for $118 million over five years.
The Marlins? Their Opening Day payroll as the roster stands — assuming arbitration projections for Villar, Aguilar, Adam Conley and Jose Urena hold firm — is at about $32.5 million, according to Spotrac.
That would mark the lowest team total on Opening Day since the San Diego Padres in 2017 ($32.1).
While the Marlins don’t intend to be done tinkering with their roster just yet — the hope is to bring in at least one more power hitter before the team reports for spring training in mid-February — they are at the mercy of the free agent market considering they don’t want to trade prospects or starting pitching depth to bolster the big-league club.
So what happens if they can’t land those final external pieces they want?
“I think the best approach and the approach that we’re trying to follow is we have the answer in house,” Hill said. “That would be the perfect world where either you drafted the answer or you traded for the answer.’
That’s where loading up the farm system comes back into play. Since the new ownership group took over, the Marlins’ minor-league system went from being the second worst in baseball to the fourth best, according to Baseball America. Of their top 30 prospects, 22 have been brought in during the past two years either through trade, the draft or international free agency.
They have maximized the talent of the few top players from the previous regime, too. Brian Anderson is a two-year starter who has found power at the plate and provides solid defense at third base and right field. Miguel Rojas has gone from a utility infielder to an everyday shortstop who can contribute on offense.
“Everyone is going to go about it differently,” Hill said,” but for us in our approach as we try to build it, it starts with a firm foundation, a deep, talented minor-league system. I think that’s what we set out to do when the new group came aboard Oct. 2, 2017, and we’ve been very methodical in doing so.”
Methodical will help in the long-term, and long-term success is Miami’s ultimate goal.
But Hill has stressed the need for immediate improvement as well.
And the rest of the NL East is setting itself up to win now.
The Nationals made the first big splash of the winter meetings by locking down Strasburg for another seven years, almost assuring that he starts and ends his career in Washington.
The 30-year-old played a pivotal role in the Nationals’ postseason run, going 5-0 with a 1.98 ERA over six games. The three-time All-Star led the National League with 18 wins this year and has a 3.17 ERA over his 10-year big-league career.
“It wasn’t a question,” Nationals manager Dave Martinez said. “I really felt that, if things go all right, that he’ll be back.”
It’s not just Strasburg returning either. Outside of losing Rendon — granted, that is a big loss — Washington returns the core of its team that went 74-38 to close out the regular season, capture a wild-card spot and cruise through the playoffs. They re-signed catcher Yan Gomes and second baseman Howie Kendrick and utilized their club option on reliever Sean Doolitle. They also avoided arbitration with infielder Wilmer Difo and reliever Hunter Strickland.
They still have Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin and Anibal Sanchez in the rotation along with Strasburg. Trea Turner, Juan Soto and Victor Robles are back, too.
“We’re kind of checking off all of our needs and all of our wants in the offseason,” Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo said. “...We put together a good, solid, competitive team for the last eight years. We’re in a good position to continue that.”
The Braves made the bulk of their moves at the beginning of free agency.
They upgraded their bullpen with the additions of Will Smith. They added a veteran starter in Cole Hamels to complement youngsters Mike Soroka and Max Fried in the rotation. And they signed catcher Travis d’Arnaud to fill the void of the retired Brian McCann.
“There was definitely value in being aggressive and getting things done,” Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos said according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “If you’re leaving everything to December or January, that’d be challenging with all the things we needed to do. It helps, straight-lines things a bit more.”
Plus, they still have Ronald Acuna Jr (.280 average, 41 home runs, 101 RBI, 127 runs, 37 stolen bases), Freddie Freeman (.295, 38 home runs, 121 RBI, 113 runs), Ozzie Albies (.259, 24 home runs, 86 RBI, 102 runs) leading the offense.
The missing piece: Replacing Josh Donaldson, the slugging third baseman who hit .259 with 37 homers, 94 RBI and 96 runs scored last year.
Manager Brian Snitker would love to have Donaldson back in the lineup, and the Braves are still pursuing him. But if they aren’t able to bring him back, Austin Riley would likely be an in-house option at third or the Braves could contemplate trading for the Cubs’ Kris Bryant.
The Phillies, meanwhile, made their two splashes by locking up former Mets starter Wheeler for five years and signing veteran shortstop Didi Gregorius to a one-year “prove-it” deal.
It gives new manager Joe Girardi a starting rotation at this point that looks like Aaron Nola, Wheeler, Jake Arrieta, Zach Eflin and likely one of Vince Velasquez, Nick Pivetta, Cole Irvin and possibly Ranger Suarez.
Gregorious, meanwhile, can bolster a lineup that centers on J.T. Realmuto, Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins, should he return to form. The 29-year-old played in just 82 games last season after undergoing UCL surgery.
And as for the Mets, they now likely have one of the deepest starting rotations after signing Michael Wacha and Rick Porcello to join a starting staff that already includes two-time Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman.
“There was a lot of talk about our lack of starting pitching depth over the course of the last couple of weeks,” general manager Brodie Van Wagenen said, according to MLB.com. “I think that story has changed.”
The Marlins have their work cut out for them.
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