How many more homers could the Marlins have had if outfield was moved closer in 2019? We examine.
The Miami Marlins, who finished 2019 with an MLB-low 146 home runs, made news Wednesday when they announced that a portion of the outfield walls at Marlins Park will be moved inward and make the ballpark slightly more hitter friendly.
A home run to straightaway center field will now only be 400 feet, compared to 407 feet. The right-center fence is now 387 feet from home plate instead of 392.
The decision to move the walls slightly closer coincided with the team’s decision to replace the ballpark’s natural grass with a new synthetic grass surface in partnership with Shaw Sports Turf.
Based on photos put on the Marlins’ “Behind the Bases” blog, the outfield area moving inward appears to begin at the blue padding at the right end of Autonation Alley in center field and extends through right-center to the end of the Univista Insurance advertisement.
“As we enhance the playing surface at Marlins Park, we felt it was also appropriate to take the opportunity to evaluate our outfield dimensions,” Marlins CEO and part-owner Derek Jeter said. “We made the decision to adjust the distance of the outfield fence, which will now be more in line with the field dimensions you see across many of today’s ballparks.”
This brings up the opportunity for an interesting hypothetical: If the new outfield dimensions were in place last season, how many more home runs would the Marlins have tallied?
The number is subjective. However, according to Statcast, the Marlins had 19 instances at home last season in which a fly ball or line drive traveled at least a projected 390 feet to straightaway center field or right-center field and did not result in a home run. Statcast defines projected distance as how far a ball would travel “if unhindered by obstructions such as stadium seats or walls.”
Below is a look at those 19 instances, but first a caveat: Each play is being analyzed in a vacuum. We’re not going to speculate if an individual play would have changed the outcome of the game.
The entries are sorted by date, from earliest in the season to the latest. Video of each play is hyperlinked when available so you can decide for yourself.
March 28 vs. Colorado Rockies
In the bottom of the second inning of the Marlins’ season opener, Garrett Cooper got hold of a 92.5-mph fastball from pitcher Kyle Freeland and sent it 391 feet to right-center field. The play ended with Ian Desmond making a running grab at the warning track.
While the play might not have been a surefire home run, Cooper’s at-bat would most likely at the very least have resulted in a play at the wall.
March 29 vs. Colorado Rockies
The Marlins’ second game of the season had a pair of home run candidates that came up just short in reality.
First was Lewis Brinson in the bottom of the eighth. He faced a 3-1 count from Rockies reliever DJ Johnson and sent a 94-mph fastball a projected 407 feet to right-center field only for Desmond to make a leaping grab at the wall. The play had a 90 percent chance of resulting in a hit — and would have been a home run if the outfield was constructed as it will be in 2020.
One inning later, Neil Walker hit a fly ball a 402 feet to center field only for it to die at the warning track. That ball likely could have been a home run with the new dimensions, but a play at the wall by Desmond isn’t impossible to rule out.
April 13 vs. Philadelphia Phillies
In the fifth inning of a 10-3 win over the Phillies, Miguel Rojas hit what became a 392 foot sacrifice fly to center field that scored Starlin Castro. The ball reached the shallow portion of the warning track before Odubel Herrera got under it, so a play at the wall would likely have been the best-case scenario.
April 20 vs. Washington Nationals
The Marlins had two chances here in the sixth inning.
First, Isaac Galloway hit a 95.7-mph fastball from Max Scherzer 400 feet to right-center field for a double after a diving Victor Robles couldn’t handle the ball. Yes, the ball’s projected distance was far enough to be a home run under the new dimensions, but this one probably would have hit off the wall based on how the ball was dropping as it came to the outfield.
Two batters later, Curtis Granderson hit a 399-foot sacrifice fly that scored Rosell Herrera from second as Robles hit the wall following the catch. This one feels like it would have been a play at the wall, but a home run would have been possible here.
June 7 vs. Atlanta Braves
Starlin Castro’s 1,500th career MLB hit was a 401-foot double to center field. It was hit to the farthest part of the field and was uncontested by Braves center fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. However, the eye test says the ball probably still would have hit the wall.
June 28 vs. Philadelphia Phillies
With two outs in the bottom of the first inning, Brian Anderson sent a 95.6-mph Vince Velazquez fastball 412 feet for an RBI double off the top of the center-field wall. Needless to say that would have been a home run.
June 29 vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Walker’ 395-foot lineout to straightaway center with runners on first and second and one out would not have been a home run. However, Roman Quinn would have had slightly less room to make the play.
July 12 vs. New York Mets
Cooper’s sixth-inning double was a 394-foot line drive to straightaway center that bounced off Michael Conforto’s glove. It would not have been a home run.
July 17 vs San Diego Padres
Walker in the seventh inning nearly ended Chris Paddack’s no-hit bid with a 392-foot fly ball to center that ended in Manuel Margot’s glove. At the very least with the new dimensions, Margot would have likely needed to make a play at the wall there.
July 26 vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Walker makes his fourth appearance on this list with his first-inning sacrifice fly against Zach Greinke that went 393 feet and opened the scoring against the Diamondbacks. The fly ball looks like it could have the distance, but would have involved a play at the wall with center fielder Jarrod Dyson.
Aug. 1 vs. Minnesota Twins
It’s tough to gauge if Harold Ramirez’s 394-foot triple to right-center field in the second inning — the first of his career — would have been a home run. It had the distance as it sailed past Twins outfielder Byron Buxton, but the height of the ball as it lands in the outfield makes this one questionable.
Aug. 24 vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Ramirez hit a slider off Phillies reliever Edgar Garcia 393 feet to center fielder Scott Kingery. Unfortunately, Statcast did not have video of this one, so analysis on this one will have to wait.
Aug. 26 vs. Cincinnati Reds
Brinson’s 404-foot ninth-inning triple to center field against the Reds was his second-longest hit ball of the season at Marlins Park. However, this one landed off the base of the wall in front of the middle of AutoNation Alley, just to the left of the area that is moving inward. So... no home run.
Sept. 7 vs. Kansas City Royals
Cooper’s eighth-inning line drive went 409 feet off the wall in the crevice to the right of Autonation Alley. This would have gone over for a home run with the new dimensions.
Sept. 11 vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Ramirez’s third and final appearance on this list comes with his 412-foot, second-inning triple to center field off Brewers pitcher Zach Davies. Considering the ball hit the middle of the wall, it likely would have been a home run.
Sept. 12 vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Isan Diaz’s lone appearance here comes for his triple that hit off the top of the center-field wall in front of AutoNation Alley and would have gone a projected 406 feet. Unfortunately for Diaz, that portion of the outfield is not moving inward. No home run.
Sept. 20 vs. Washington Nationals
Castro closes us out with his 400-foot double against Anibal Sanchez that bounced off the top of the wall in right-center field. This likely would have been a home run.
As for the opposition?
If we’re going to analyze extra home runs for the Marlins, it’s only fair to take a look at how the opponents would have fared considering they would have the added benefit of the new dimensions as well.
According to Statcast, opposing hitters also had 19 instances at Marlins Park last season under the same parameters as the Marlins — at least 390 feet hit toward center field. Five were too far left to have been impacted by the new dimensions and one instance did not have available video.
Of the remaining 13, three looked like they would be home runs with the new dimensions — Jose Ramirez’s 393-foot flyout to right-center off Sergio Romo on May 1, Gregory Polanco’s 402-foot line drive to right-center off Sandy Alcantara on June 16, Max Kepler’s 399-foot fly ball to right-center off Jose Quijada on July 30.
One more freebie
The following doesn’t factor into the conversation because it was hit too far to left-center field — where the dimensions aren’t changing — to be worthy of consideration, but I would be remiss if I left it out after examining all the other plays.
Anyway, here’s pitcher Pablo Lopez crushing an 81.4-mph curveball from Royals pitcher Jorge Lopez 392 feet to the top of the wall on Sept. 6 in a 3-0 Marlins loss. It was the farthest hit ball by a Marlins pitcher last season and the longest since Jose Fernandez hit a 402-foot home run on July 2, 2015.
“I saw the ball leaving the bat, and once it got into the AutoNation [Alley], it has the white walls and I kind of lost it,” Lopez said with a smile after the game. “Then, I just saw it on the ground. I was like, ‘I have to keep running, and I made it to second.’“
Catcher Bryan Holaday was thrown out at home on the play.
This story was originally published December 5, 2019 at 11:22 AM.
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