With depth ‘all the way down to Double A,’ Miami Marlins believe in future rotation
Michael Hill rattled off the names, a dozen Miami Marlins pitchers who in any five-person combination could make up the team’s starting rotation during the next two years.
“You’re talking about front-line starting pitching from the Major Leagues all the way down to Double A,” the Marlins’ president of baseball operations said.
It’s arguably the strength of this Marlins’ club. Half of the group Hill named — Sandy Alcantara, Caleb Smith, Pablo Lopez, Jordan Yamamoto, Elieser Hernandez and Robert Dugger — pitched in the big leagues at some point and none is older than 24 years old outside of Smith. The other six — Sixto Sanchez, Edward Cabrera, Nick Neidert, Jorge Guzman, Trevor Rogers and Braxton Garrett — are all among the top 16 prospects in Miami’s minor-league system. Neidert is in Triple A. The other five finished the 2019 season in Double A.
And that list doesn’t include Jose Urena, the Marlins’ Opening Day starter the past two seasons who can still figure into either the rotation or bullpen at some point.
So, yes, the Marlins have up-and-coming talent to lead the pitching staff.
But with Miami fresh off a 57-105 season and openly acknowledging the need to improve next season, should they still be looking for upgrades to give the group a short-term boost and not rush their top prospects?
Hill said it’s a possibility, but also said they feel confident in the group they have. And when you consider the club’s more pressing needs — improving a struggling offense and bullpen — starting pitching upgrades could easily go on the back burner until the end of the offseason if it is addressed at all.
“You feel like you’re in a pretty good spot, not that you ever have enough of it, but you feel good in terms of the quality and the quantity.”
Miami’s starting rotation last year — a group that included Urena, Alcantara, Smith, Lopez and Trevor Richards — was among MLB’s best through the All-Star Break last season. The Marlins’ starters put together a 3.96 ERA that ranked second in the National League East, fourth in the NL and seventh in MLB.
But when injuries took their toll — Miami at one point was without Urena, Smith and Lopez — and Richards was traded to the Tampa Bay Rays at the July 31 deadline, things began to unravel. A combination of Hernandez, Yamamoto, Zac Gallen (also traded at the deadline), Dugger and Hector Noesi combined to make 48 starts down the stretch. Inexperience caught up with the staff, and the club’s 4.59 starting pitching ERA ranked 16th in MLB.
“These are guys that gain experience through pitching in major-league games and by going through the ups and downs of navigating a lineup,” Hill said. “There’s definitely inherent value in that, so when you think about a young guy, that’s what we try to manage.”
As the roster stands, Alcantara (32 starts, 3.88 ERA, 197 1/3 innings) and Smith (28 starts, 4.52 ERA, 153 1/3 innings, 168 strikeouts) figure to be the only locks for roster spots heading into spring training.
The other three rotation pieces will likely go to some grouping of Lopez (21 starts 5.09 ERA, 111 1/3 innings, 95 strikeouts), Yamamoto (15 starts, 4.46 ERA, 78 2/3 innings, 82 strikeouts), Urena (4.70 ERA, 51 strikeouts in 74 2/3 innings over 13 starts before moving to the bullpen post-injury) Hernandez (4.58 ERA, 78 strikeouts in 74 2/3 innings over 15 starts) or Dugger (seven starts 5.77 ERA, 25 strikeouts in 34 1/3 innings) unless Neidert dazzles enough in spring training to crack the Opening Day roster.
Sanchez, Cabrera and Guzman, respectively the Marlins’ Nos. 1, 6 and 16 prospects according to MLB pipeline, could be called up and make their MLB debut at some point in 2020 but the Marlins don’t plan to rush any of the three up.
Sanchez, who the Marlins obtained as part of the J.T. Realmuto trade in February, threw 114 innings last season and posted a 2.53 ERA in 18 Double A starts. He held opponents to a .225 batting average with the Jumbo Shrimp and struck out 97 batters compared to just 19 walks. This was one year removed from being shut down after 46 2/3 innings due to right elbow inflammation.
Cabrera, 21, split the 2019 season between Class A Advanced Jupiter and Double A Jacksonville and put together a cumulative 2.23 ERA over 96 2/3 innings in 19 starts with 116 strikeouts against 31 walks. He held opponents to a .190 batting average and just less than one walk or hit per inning.
Outside of a minor jump in ERA (2.02 in Jupiter versus 2.56 in Jacksonville), Cabrera’s splits stayed pretty consistent after his promotion.
Guzman, the 23-year-old righty obtained in the Giancarlo Stanton trade, made 24 starts and one relief appearance for the Jumbo Shrimp last season, putting together a 3.50 ERA over a career-high 138 2/3 innings. He struck out 127, limited batters to a .201 average and gave up just four earned runs in his final five starts.
“I think it was incredibly important for us and for our prospects to have the years that they had last year,” Hill said. “It was very important for us to clean up Sixto’s delivery and get him on that routine where he’s making a start every five days. He pitched career innings because of it. The same for Jorge Guzman. Now, as we look at them heading into 2020 and beyond, they have that foundation so that you can add innings on to them and you continue to expose them until they show that they’re ready.”
This story was originally published December 11, 2019 at 12:17 PM.
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