Tracking the odds for the Sweet 16 teams in the NCAA Tournament
Duke may have been fortunate to escape with a win over Central Florida in the second round of the NCAA Tournament, but that hasn’t dampened the oddsmakers’ faith in the Blue Devils.
The Sweet 16 games begin Thursday, and Duke remains the favorite to cut the nets next month in Minneapolis.
Here is a look at the teams that oddsmakers and analytical sites see doing well over the final 15 games of the tournament.
The online gambling site Bovada has Duke as the favorite at 3-1, followed by Virginia (4-1), Gonzaga (19-4) and North Carolina (6-1). The rest of the field has these odds: Michigan State (12-1), Kentucky (14-1), Purdue and Tennessee (15-1), Michigan (18-1), Texas Tech (20-1), Houston (22-1), Auburn (28-1), Florida State (35-1), Virginia Tech (40-1), LSU (50-1) and Oregon (70-1).
VegasInsider.com has slightly different odds. Duke is first at 11-4, followed by Gonzaga (17-4), Virginia (9-2) and North Carolina (7-1). The rest of the field: Michigan State (10-1), Michigan (14-1), Kentucky (16-1), Purdue (18-1), Tennessee (20-1), Texas Tech (22-1), Auburn (25-1), Houston (30-1), Florida State and Virginia Tech (40-1), and Oregon and LSU (50-1).
ESPN’s College Basketball Power Index sees Virginia as the favorite, giving the Cavaliers a 31.6 percent chance to win the title, followed by Gonzaga (25.2 percent) and Duke (12.2 percent). After that, it’s Michigan State (7.9 percent), North Carolina (6.4 percent), Kentucky (4.5 percent), Michigan (2.5 percent), Purdue (2.3 percent), Texas Tech (2.2 percent), Tennessee (2.0 percent), Virginia Tech (1.1 percent), Houston and Auburn (0.9 percent), Florida State (0.3 percent), LSU (0.1 percent) and Oregon (0.0 percent*).
*Yeah, we thought of Animal House, too.
The favorites to win Sweet 16 games: Virginia, Gonzaga, Duke, Michigan State, North Carolina, Kentucky, Purdue, Texas Tech (51.3 percent to Michigan’s 48.7 percent).
The analytical site FiveThirtyEight.com gives Duke the best chance of winning the tournament at 20 percent, followed by Virginia (18 percent), Gonzaga (14 percent) and North Carolina (9 percent). The rest of the field: Michigan State (7 percent), Michigan, Purdue and Tennessee (all 5 percent); Texas Tech and Kentucky (4 percent); Auburn (3 percent); Virginia Tech, Florida State and Houston (2 percent); Oregon and LSU both have less than a 1 percent shot.
This story was originally published March 27, 2019 at 2:57 PM with the headline "Tracking the odds for the Sweet 16 teams in the NCAA Tournament."
