Five keys for the Miami Hurricanes in their Cotton Bowl matchup with Ohio State
The No. 10 Miami Hurricanes (11-2) play the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1) in the Cotton Bowl on Dec. 31 for a College Football Playoff quarterfinal.
Kickoff from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, is set for 7:30 p.m. and the game will be broadcast on ESPN.
Miami is a nine-point underdog for the game, but the Hurricanes are not one to shy away from a challenge.
Here are five keys to the game for the Hurricanes if they want a chance at the upset.
Don’t waste scoring opportunities
Ohio State has the nation’s top scoring defense, giving up an average of just 8.2 points per game. The Buckeyes have not allowed more than 16 points in any game this season and had a pair of shutouts against Grambling State and Wisconsin.
However, it’s worth noting that of the 12 Football Bowl Subdivision opponents Ohio State faced this year, three were among the 15 lowest-scoring teams nationally in Wisconsin (135th out of 136 FBS teams), UCLA (tied for 125th) and Purdue (122nd). Five more were also ranked outside the top 50 in Minnesota (98th), Michigan (71st), Ohio (66th), Rutgers (59th) and Illinois (53rd).
The remaining four: Indiana (fourth) was held to 10 points, Washington (tied for 17th) was held to six points, Penn State (35th) was held to 14 points and Texas (49th) was held to seven points.
The Hurricanes rank tied for 29th in scoring offense, averaging 32.2 points per game but scored just 10 points in their first-round win at Texas A&M. They missed three field goals on drives that got inside the Aggies’ 30-yard line, punted on five other drives and lost a fourth-quarter fumble in Texas A&M territory.
Miami can’t afford to let scoring chances go to waste this time.
Get a bounce-back performance from Carson Beck
One of the ways to do that: Get more production out of the passing game than the Hurricanes did against Texas A&M.
The whipping wind played a big factor in Miami’s struggles to generate through the air. Beck completed 14 of 20 passes for 103 yards and a touchdown but was only 2 for 7 on passes that were more than 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
Miami was able to lean on its run game, primarily a dominant performance from Mark Fletcher Jr. (172 yards on 17 carries) for its sporadic moves down the field.
But they’ll need the version of Beck they saw at the end of the regular season — the one who completed 89 of 112 pass attempts (79.46% completion rate) for 1,125 yards and 11 touchdowns with just one interception — if they want to compete with Ohio State.
Contain Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate
The Buckeyes have an explosive one-two punch at receiver that will test Miami’s secondary.
Smith is the superstar, a Biletnikoff Award finalist after a sophomore season in which he caught 80 passes for 1,086 yards and 11 touchdowns despite being limited down the stretch with a groin injury.
But Tate can be just as dangerous. In 10 games, Tate has caught 48 passes for 838 yards — 17.48 yards per catch average — and nine touchdowns.
Miami will need its outside corner rotation of Xavier Lucas, OJ Frederique, Ethan O’Connor and (if healthy) Damari Brown to have another strong outing to limit those two.
Win the line of scrimmage
This is always the top priority for the Hurricanes. Their success goes from the offensive and defensive lines out. Establishing themselves in the trenches is the priority.
And more often than not, Miami has succeeded there.
The most recent showing came in the first round against Texas A&M. The Hurricanes logged seven sacks and nine tackles for loss on defense against a team that rarely gave up either, while surrendering just two sacks and six tackles for loss against a team among the nation’s best in both categories.
The Hurricanes rank among the top 15 nationally according to Pro Football focus in pass rushing (second, 92.1 overall grade), pass blocking (second, 87.5 overall grade), run blocking (10th, 74.0 overall grade) and run defense (ninth, 93.1 overall grade).
Ohio State’s ranks: Tied for 38th in pass rushing (79.5 overall grade), tied for 27th in pass blocking (75.9 overall grade), second in run defense (94.6 overall grade) and seventh in run blocking (75.7 overall grade).
Win the turnover battle
The Hurricanes are a plus-11 overall in turnover margin this season, tied for the eighth-best differential in college football this season. Miami is 8-0 this season when winning the turnover battle, 2-0 when turnovers are equal and 1-2 when losing turnover battle (a win against Florida, losses to Louisville and SMU). UM is also 1-2 when committing multiple turnovers (beat USF, while losing to Louisville and SMU).
Miami’s 23 total turnovers forced (14 interceptions, nine fumble recoveries) are the third-most among the eight teams still in the playoff field, behind only Texas Tech (31) and Indiana (25).
Ohio State, meanwhile, has forced just 14 takeaways, which is sixth among the eight remaining CFP teams (Georgia and Ole Miss have fewer).
However, the Buckeyes have only given up the ball nine times — six interceptions and three fumbles. That’s the second-fewest of the eight remaining teams, behind only Indiana which has only turned the ball over eight times.
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