After latest ranking reveal, what will it take for Miami to make the playoffs?
The Miami Hurricanes remain on the outside looking in of a College Football Playoff berth days before the field is formally announced.
But for Hurricanes fans holding out hope that UM can sneak into the 12-team field when the bracket is revealed at noon Sunday, here’s a bit of good news: There is still a path.
It just requires at least one game on conference championship weekend breaking the Hurricanes’ way and the 12-person selection committee finally giving Miami credit for its head-to-head win against Notre Dame, which has not been done yet through the first five weeks of rankings.
Miami was No. 12 in the latest rankings on Tuesday, technically the second team out of the field because at least teams that will get automatic bids into the field as eventual conference champions are currently ranked below them. The five highest-ranked conference champions and the next seven highest-ranked teams comprise the 12-team playoff field.
In the spots directly above Miami are No. 9 Alabama, No. 10 Notre Dame and No. 11 BYU. These four teams theoretically are competing for the final two available spots. The top eight in the rankings (Ohio State, Indiana, Georgia, Texas Tech, Oregon, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Oklahoma) appear locked into the playoffs. Two more conference champions — presumably from either the Atlantic Coast Conference (Virginia-Duke winner), American (Tulane-North Texas winner) and Sun Belt (James Madison, if it beats Troy) — will get the final two guaranteed spots.
CFP selection committee chair Hunter Yurachek on Tuesday said the committee has been comparing those four teams against each other essentially in one collective pool, but has not directly compared Miami and Notre Dame separately when compiling the rankings. This is despite Miami and Notre Dame having played each other this season, with the Hurricanes winning that game 27-24 on Aug. 31, and both teams having identical 10-2 records and nearly identical resumes otherwise.
So why are Miami and Notre Dame still not being compared head-to-head now that their seasons are over and the committee has them so close together in the rankings?
“If we were just comparing Miami and Notre Dame side-by-side, it’s a little bit easier to use that [head-to-head] comparison,” Yurachek said, “but we’re not comparing Notre Dame and Miami side-by-side. We’re comparing really this whole — we’ve been comparing Alabama, Notre Dame, BYU and Miami collectively and evaluating those teams and how they look.
“When you put all of those teams together,” Yuracheck continued, “the committee has felt for the past several weeks that Notre Dame, now the winners of 10 straight and really dominating on both sides of the ball in those 10 wins, and then BYU an 11-1 team with really strong strength of schedule and strength metrics, wins over a couple of top-25 teams, deserved to be ranked higher than Miami. So that’s why we have that order of Notre Dame 10 and BYU 11.”
Now, it’s worth noting that Yuracheck said teams who are idle during conference championship weekend are able to move in the rankings depending on how the games play out, leaving the door open for Miami to jump Notre Dame on Sunday despite neither team playing.
With that logic in place, what has to happen for Miami to get one of those final spots?
It will come down to what happens with Alabama and BYU on Saturday. BYU plays Texas Tech for the Big 12 title (noon, ABC). Alabama plays Georgia in the SEC Championship Game on Saturday (4 p.m., ABC).
If Alabama and BYU both win, then they each secure the final two spots up for grabs, as their opponents look set to get at-large bids if they aren’t conference champions.
If either or both loses, then it will come down to how the committee sorts through the quartet of Alabama, BYU, Notre Dame and Miami to fill the remaining spot(s).
That leaves four possibilities, which are broken down as follows:
Alabama and BYU win: Alabama and BYU get automatic bids into the field, squeezing out both Miami and Notre Dame.
Alabama wins, BYU loses: Alabama gets an automatic bid and stays ahead of Notre Dame and Miami needs the committee to drop BYU below the Hurricanes. Miami and Notre Dame at that point would be ranked side-by-side, which should make the committee factor in the head-to-head matchup. If so, UM would jump Notre Dame for No. 10 and thus secure the final at-large bid.
Alabama loses, BYU wins: BYU gets an automatic bid into the field, leaving one spot for Alabama, Notre Dame and Miami. The question will come down to the order in which the teams are ranked. BYU should jump to the front of the pack in this scenario, but would a three-loss Alabama stay ahead of either or both Miami and Notre Dame? More interestingly, could the committee have Alabama fall behind Notre Dame but not Miami, thus keeping a buffer team between the Hurricanes and Fighting Irish so that it doesn’t have to enact the head-to-head between Miami and Notre Dame and keep the Fighting Irish in the field?
Alabama and BYU lose: Two spots will be available for four teams. Margin of defeat will likely dictate how far (if at all) Alabama and BYU drop and where Miami and Notre Dame are in relation to each other.
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