Where do Hurricanes stack up with other two-loss teams? Comparing playoff resumes
The Miami Hurricanes are fighting for their lives to stay in the College Football Playoff race.
They’re not alone.
Miami (8-2, 4-2 Atlantic Coast Conference) is in a logjam with seven other two-loss teams trying to make their case for an at-large bid into the 12-team playoff.
Where should the Hurricanes stand in the pecking order, assuming of course they win their final two games at Virginia Tech on Saturday (noon, ESPN) and at Pittsburgh on Nov. 29? How do they compare to their fellow two-loss counterparts?
Here’s a breakdown of each team’s resume thus far, what’s left on the schedule for each team, and how Miami stacks up.
For clarity, here are how the metrics used for comparison are defined...
Strength of Record: This ranking is determined by the “chance that an average Top 25 team would have team’s record or better, given the schedule.” The lower the ranking, the harder it is deemed that an average top 25 team will have done what that team has done
SP+: A metric created by ESPN’s Bill Connelly, SP+ in essence is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that is “intended to be predictive and forward-facing” (in other words, style points and blowouts regardless of the opponent are more beneficial here than eking out a close win in a ranked matchup).
FPI top 35 wins: ESPN’s Football Power Index, abbreviated FPI, is defined as “a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is.” A team in the top 35 of this ranking essentially deemed as among the top quarter of college football teams this season per the index regardless of record.
Miami Hurricanes
Strength of schedule: 43
Strength of record: 16
SP+: 10
FPI: 11
Total FPI top- 5 wins: Four (No. 5 Notre Dame, No. 26 Florida State, No. 28 USF, No. 34 Florida)
Best win: Notre Dame
Losses: SMU (No. 25 in FPI), Louisville (No. 35 in FPI)
Remaining schedule: at Virginia Tech (Saturday), at Pittsburgh (Nov. 29)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Strength of schedule: 29
Strength of record: 12
SP+: 5
FPI: 5
Total FPI top 35 wins: One (No. 10 USC)
Best win: USC
Losses: Texas A&M (No. 9 in FPI), Miami (No. 11 in FPI)
Remaining schedule: vs. Syracuse (Saturday), at Stanford (Nov. 29)
How Miami compares: There’s one overarching factor for this one: Miami has a head-to-head win against Notre Dame already, winning 27-24 on Aug. 31 in both teams’ season opener. The committee has used head-to-head matchups as a tiebreaker in many scenarios so far... except Miami-Notre Dame. Why? Because it ranked the Fighting Irish so much higher than the Hurricanes. The teams also have one common opponent so far, with both handling NC State. They will add three more by the end of the season after Miami plays Pittsburgh and Notre Dame plays Syracuse and Stanford.
Oklahoma Sooners
Strength of schedule: 10
Strength of record: 10
SP+: 12
FPI: 15
Total FPI top 35 wins: Five (No. 6 Alabama, No. 16 Tennessee, No. 18 Michigan, No. 24 Auburn, No. 29 South Carolina)
Best win: Alabama
Losses: Texas (No. 12 in FPI), Ole Miss (No. 13 in FPI)
Remaining schedule: vs. Missouri (Saturday), vs. LSU (Nov. 29)
How Miami compares: Oklahoma’s upset win against Alabama on Saturday muddied things for Miami because it kept the Sooners in the hunt AND knocked the Crimson Tide into the two-loss range. Oklahoma has better losses on top of an overall tougher schedule, so it will stay above Miami barring a third loss.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Strength of schedule: 4
Strength of record: 8
SP+: 11
FPI: 6
Total FPI top 35 wins: Five (No. 4 Georgia, No. 16 Tennessee, No. 17 Vanderbilt, No. 19 Missouri, No. 22 LSU)
Best win: Georgia
Losses: Oklahoma (No. 15 in FPI), Florida State (No. 26 in FPI)
Remaining schedule: vs. Eastern Illinois (Saturday), at Auburn (Nov. 29)
How Miami compares: Alabama’s resume on its whole is better than Miami’s, but the Hurricanes do have one advantage: UM has a win against a Florida State team that beat Alabama. It will be interesting to see how much the committee factors that loss in now that the Crimson Tide has a second defeat.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Strength of schedule: 21
Strength of record: 11
SP+: 18
FPI: 17
Total FPI top 35 wins: Four (No. 19 Missouri, No. 22 LSU, No. 24 Auburn, No. 29 South Carolina)
Best win: Missouri
Losses: Alabama (No. 6 in FPI), Texas (No. 12 in FPI)
Remaining schedule: vs. Kentucky (Saturday), at Tennessee (Sept. 29)
How Miami compares: Miami is ahead of Vanderbilt in the predictive models and is comparable in its strength of record. The Hurricanes also have the better win (Notre Dame). That said, the committee ranked Vanderbilt ahead of Miami in each of the first two rankings.
Utah Utes
Strength of schedule: 46
Strength of record: 18
SP+: 8
FPI: 7
Total FPI top 35 wins: 0
Best win: Cincinnati (No. 42 in FPI)
Losses: Texas Tech (No. 8 in FPI), BYU (No. 14 in FPI)
Remaining schedule: vs. Kansas State (Saturday), at Kansas (Nov. 28)
How Miami compares: The committee has ranked Utah ahead of Miami in each of the first two rankings despite the Utes not having a true quality win. It’s being propped up by better losses and style points against the weaker portion of its schedule, which has given it the edge in the predictive models.
USC Trojans
Strength of schedule: 36
Strength of record: 15
SP+: 13
FPI: 10
Total FPI top 35 wins: Two (No. 18 Michigan, No. 21 Iowa)
Best win: Michigan
Losses: Notre Dame (No. 5 in FPI), Illinois (No. 27 in FPI)
Remaining schedule: at Oregon (Saturday), vs. UCLA (Nov. 29)
How Miami compares: USC and Miami are in a comparable place with their resumes, but the Hurricanes should still have the edge because of their win against Notre Dame, which USC lost to. The Trojans’ game this weekend against Oregon is a de facto elimination game.
Michigan Wolverines
Strength of schedule: 35
Strength of record: 14
SP+: 22
FPI: 18
Total FPI top 35 wins: One (No. 23 Washington)
Best win: Washington
Losses: USC (No. 10 in FPI), Oklahoma (No. 16 in FPI)
Remaining schedule: at Maryland (Saturday), vs. Ohio State (Nov. 29)
How Miami compares: Miami is safely ahead of Michigan for now, but if the Wolverines pull off the upset of Ohio State for a second consecutive year, things could get interesting.
.JPG)