How UM can make College Football Playoff: The paths and scenarios in one place
While the Miami Hurricanes remain underdogs to make the College Football Playoff, there are more than a dozen scenarios that can get them in — several that are set in stone, others more speculative.
Examining them all:
HOW UM CAN CLINCH A PLAYOFF SPOT VIA ACC TITLE GAME
The Canes have eight ways to make the Atlantic Coast Conference championship game but need help with each of them.
All include a Miami win Saturday at Pittsburgh (noon, ABC), in addition to:
1). SMU wins at California; Duke loses to Wake Forest; and Virginia loses to Virginia Tech.
2). Duke wins; SMU and Virginia lose; and North Carolina State beats North Carolina.
3). Virginia wins; Duke and SMU lose; Syracuse beats Boston College; and NC State beats UNC.
4.) Duke, SMU and Virginia all lose and North Carolina State wins.
5). Duke, SMU and Virginia all lose and Syracuse wins.
Three other scenarios involve Sports Source Analytics determining if Miami gets in:
6). Miami would need to win Saturday and finish higher than SMU and Georgia Tech in those analytics rankings if Duke, Virginia and SMU lose and Syracuse and Boston College win.
7). Miami would need to win Saturday and finish higher than SMU and Georgia Tech in those analytics rankings if Virginia, Boston College and NC State win and Duke and SMU lose.
8). Miami would need to win Saturday and finish ahead of Duke in those Analytics rankings if SMU, Duke and NC State win and Virginia loses.
If any of these eight things happen, Miami very likely would need to win the ACC Championship Game, on Dec. 6 in Charlotte, North Carolina, to advance to the College Football Playoff.
HOW TO CLAIM AT AN-LARGE PLAYOFF BERTH
There is nothing that can happen that would automatically clinch a CFP spot for Miami, as an at-large team.
Essentially, UM needs to move from 12th in the rankings to at least 10th, by selection day Dec. 6, to be positioned to receive an at-large bid.
That could happen if results break right not only this weekend but with conference championship games Dec. 5 and 6; all of the ACC, SEC, Big 10 and Big 12 championship game matchups remaining undecided.
Here are four potential series of outcomes this week that could vault the Canes into the CFP top 10, if Miami does not make the ACC title game:
1). A UCF win at No. 11 BYU (which has only one loss) and a No. 10 Alabama loss at Auburn, plus a No. 15 Michigan home loss to No. 1 Ohio State (to eliminate the possibility of the Wolverines jumping Miami) and a No. 14 Vanderbilt loss at No. 19 Tennessee (to eliminate the possibility of the Commodores jumping UM).
2). A No. 8 Oklahoma loss at home against LSU combined with a loss by BYU or a loss by Alabama or a shocking loss by No. 9 Notre Dame at Stanford. That would give the Sooners a third loss.
3). A loss by Notre Dame at Stanford, combined with a BYU loss or an Alabama loss and (to be safe), losses by Michigan and Vanderbilt.
4). Losses by BYU, Alabama and Oklahoma and (to be safe), a loss by Michigan or Vanderbilt.
Also keep in mind that a Mississippi loss at Mississippi State could conceivably push UM past the Rebels, though that’s no sure thing.
If teams ahead of Miami lose a third game in their conference championship, that also could allow Miami to sneak into the top 10. A Texas Tech victory over one-loss BYU in the Big 12 championship could push UM past BYU. (The Cougars clinch a berth in the Big 12 title game by beating UCF).
But don’t expect the committee to put Miami in the field ahead of Notre Dame if the Fighting Irish beats Stanford. The committee has made it abundantly clear that it believes the Fighting Irish are better than the Hurricanes, despite UM’s Aug. 31 win against Notre Dame.
This story was originally published November 26, 2025 at 4:45 PM.
