No. 12 Hurricanes’ playoff hopes come down to road game at No. 22 Pittsburgh
The Miami Hurricanes know what is at stake. They know what’s on the line.
Miami, No. 12 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, remains very much alive to reach the 12-team field entering the final week of the season.
And they know what must happen on Saturday when it’s all said and done.
“There’s one scenario that matters — just one,” Hurricanes coach Mario Cristobal said Monday, “and that’s us finding a way to be 1-0. That’s it.”
For the Hurricanes (9-2, 5-2 Atlantic Coast Conference) to have any chance at making the playoffs — whether as an at-large team or in the slim chance of doing so as the ACC champion (yes, there are still paths, as unlikely as they are) — they first must win Saturday at the No. 22 Pittsburgh Panthers (8-3, 6-1 ACC). Kickoff from Acrisure Stadium is set for noon, with the game broadcast on ABC.
“This is football at its best, man,” Cristobal said.
And Miami has to be at its best because the Hurricanes are still facing an uphill climb in the eyes of the 12-member CFP selection committee.
UM is still behind three other two-loss teams — the No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners, No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (a team Miami beat to start the season) and the No. 10 Alabama Crimson Tide — in the rankings.
The committee, for what it’s worth, has moved Miami up considerably over the course of the four rankings. The Hurricanes went from No. 18 in the first ranking reveal to No. 15 then No. 13 and now No. 12.
They have played much better football the past three weeks following their overtime loss to SMU that gave them two losses on the season — and two losses in a three-week stretch after a 5-0 start to the season. Miami has outscored Syracuse, NC State and Virginia Tech by a combined 113-34, including 58-3 in the first halves of those games. The Hurricanes’ lead never slipped below 10 points in the second half in any of those games.
“Miami is a team that … really appears that they’re starting to look like the Miami team that started 5-0,” CFP selection committee chair Hunter Yurachek said Tuesday. “What they’ve been able to do over the last three weeks and winning those three games and looking really good on the offensive side of the ball.”
But, if the season ended today, it would still have Miami on the outside looking in of the playoffs if it weren’t the ACC champion, which can’t be assumed because there’s no guarantee Miami plays in that game. The field consists of the five highest ranked conference champions and then the next seven highest ranked teams. So at No. 12, Miami is technically the second team out if it’s not the conference champion.
That’s behind a fellow two-loss team in Notre Dame the Hurricanes beat 27-24 on Aug. 31 to begin the season. And behind a two-loss Alabama with whom Miami has a common opponent (Florida State, who Miami beat 28-22 and Alabama lost to 31-17). And behind a BYU team that has a 22-point loss and is ranked below Miami in several “eye test” factors including ESPN’s Football Power Index (Miami 10th, BYU 15th), average win game probability (Miami fifth, BYU 31st) and game control (Miami sixth, BYU 14th). Average win game probability and game control are both metrics defined by ESPN to rank how well a team controls the result of the game. Essentially, the better the ranking, the more often a team has handled its business on the field.
“I’m a 100% believer that football has always been [decided] in the field test. That’s always the most important test,” Cristobal said. “That’s what every team has an opportunity to do.”
Miami has another opportunity to do so on Saturday against Pittsburgh, its final guaranteed opportunity this season before the playoff committee’s final rankings.
And it’s against a Panthers team coming off a massive road upset win against Georgia Tech, 42-28, last weekend. Pittsburgh raced out to a 28-0 lead in that game, fueled by strong performances from quarterback Mason Heintschel (20 for 27, 226 passing yards, two touchdowns), running back Ja’Kyrian Turner (186 rushing yards, one touchdown) and a defense that had five tackles for loss, two interceptions and forced three turnovers on downs.
Pittsburgh, like Miami, is still in the running for the playoffs, but the Panthers’ only path in is by winning the ACC — they need to beat Miami and get help via a loss from either Virginia or SMU to get into the title game.
“We’re playing a great football team that is fighting for the exact same things that we are,” Cristobal said.
That fight is keeping the Hurricanes going. They’ve shown themselves over the past three weeks that they can be a legitimate contender.
They need to finish the job to have a chance to prove it when it matters.
“We maybe slipped up a little bit and maybe didn’t play our best, and we fell short a couple of times, and adversity was right in our face,” quarterback Carson Beck said. “But we’ve responded in what I believe to be an amazing way. Guys are in here. The energy is high at practice. The energy is high in workouts and film. Guys are showing up earlier, staying later. Just the time commitment that you see from this team and the care factor from everybody is at an all-time high after facing that adversity. ... The true testament of a team is when they face adversity. And I feel like we’ve really been able to show who we are, and I feel like that holds a lot of weight.”
This story was originally published November 26, 2025 at 11:10 AM.
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