A $20M bet and Fla.’s redistricting games may revive rare Miami species: Democrats | Opinion

The Democratic Party has been moribund in Florida for years. But President Trump’s low approval ratings and recent elections have revived the party’s hopes of becoming competitive again in the Miami area — a former blue stronghold Republicans flipped in the last gubernatorial and presidential elections.

Democrats are showing signs of life, and that’s good for democracy. A system in which both parties are competitive leads to better policies and elected officials who appeal to a larger share of their constituents.

One-party rule is detrimental to any community, whether red or blue. The best type of government leads from the middle, not the extremes.

As the Herald reported on Thursday, a major Democratic political action committee called House Majority PAC is spending $20 million on ads to help its candidates win in Florida. This is the first investment the super PAC has made in the state since 2020.

The PAC put Miami Republican U.S. Reps. Maria Elvira Salazar and Carlos Giménez “on notice.” Both were first elected in 2020, flipping seats once held by Democrats and since then have cruised to reelection.

Salazar must be feeling the pressure. Although she’s still favored to win, this month the Cook Political Report — a respected nonpartisan election analysis newsletter — downgraded her district from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican.” Among the reasons for that were the election of a Democrat as city of Miami mayor and the flipping of a Florida House district — from R to D — that includes Trump’s estate in Palm Beach.

Salazar is campaigning as someone who’s no longer a shoo-in for reelection, and that’s good. She’s amped up her media outreach and the promotion of her immigration reform bill, the Dignity Act. The bill has faced attacks from the right, with critics in Congress and social media dubbing it “mass amnesty” for people here illegally. (Politifact rated that claim “half true” because her bill would allow some immigrants to stay here but only after they meet certain requirements).

Salazar’s likely Democratic opponent is Elliot Rodriguez, a former Miami TV anchor who’s had a solid fundraising period since he entered the primary race in March.

The areas Gimenez and Salazar represent used to flip between Republicans and Democrats. Today, swing, or purple, districts have become nearly extinct in much of South Florida. That’s a problem. Politicians in solid red or blue areas only have to appeal to primary voters who are usually more ideological and don’t represent the average voter.

Democrats’ ability to pick up seats will largely depend on a special legislative session scheduled for next week. Lawmakers, urged by Gov. Ron DeSantis, are expected to redraw the boundaries of some congressional districts. They expect to create new GOP-leaning districts, but many Republicans have warned that redistricting could backfire, hurting the party’s incumbents in other areas where GOP vote margins would be diluted.

The Florida constitution bans partisan gerrymandering, so lawmakers and DeSantis have been careful not to say that helping the GOP keep U.S. House control is their intent. DeSantis has not yet released the new proposed voting maps.

An analysis released by a prominent GOP consultant found that redistricting would increase the number of competitive seats from four to seven “while producing zero net gain in Republican seats.”

“Consequence: Such redistricting efforts increase Republican electoral vulnerability,” Alex Alvarado wrote for the Civic Data & Research Institute, a nonpartisan research organization.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries this week warned that Democrats will target eight Florida Republican incumbents if the Legislature proceeds with redistricting. Among them are Salazar, Giménez and U.S. Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, who represents an area stretching from parts of Miami to Naples. Defeating Diaz-Balart will be the more difficult task. First elected in 2002, he represents a district that has a large GOP voter-registration advantage.

Jeffries’ threats may be political theater. Democrats have many times vowed to retake Florida and South Florida, but investments and quality candidates didn’t materialize. No party can dig itself out of near irrelevancy in one election cycle, but the November midterms are Democrats’ best shot.

A more competitive opposition party will benefit voters, whose elected officials could no longer take them for granted. America’s two-party system is flawed, but single-party reign is a lot worse.