‘Likely Republican’ doesn’t mean a safe seat for Miami congresswoman | Opinion

When I was a political consultant, the best advice I would give any candidate was to run like you’re 10 points behind.

I’m thinking about that because this week, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report changed U.S. Rep. Maria Salazar’s congressional district in Miami-Dade County from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican.”

That’s a modest shift. Salazar remains the clear favorite in District 27, which includes downtown Miami, Coral Gables and Pinecrest. But incumbents who don’t take modest shifts seriously end up writing concession speeches.

Salazar has reason to feel good about her chances of reelection this November. In 2022, she beat Democratic state Sen. Annette Taddeo by 15 points. And in 2024, Salazar won by 20 points over former Miami-Dade School Board member Lucia Baez-Geller, a Democrat, in a district President Donald Trump carried by only 15 points.

Comfortable margins of victory like that usually buy breathing room, but not in today’s political climate.

As Erin Covey, the U.S. House editor at the Cook Political Report told me, “Recent elections in Florida — from the Miami mayoral race to state House specials in Palm Beach — are all pointing in the same direction. Even accounting for lower turnout in special elections, there’s clear evidence of erosion in voter sentiment toward Trump.”

Covey is referring to the December runoff for Miami mayor, when Eileen Higgins defeated Trump-endorsed candidate Emilio Gonzalez, and a race in Palm Beach County, where Democrat Emily Gregory flipped a Republican seat in House District 87. Both races offer a snapshot of voter behavior.

That doesn’t mean Salazar’s district is slipping away. But Republicans shouldn’t treat it as a safe seat.

Democrats certainly are focused on the race. This week, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee issued a press release about the ratings change saying that alarm bells were “blaring” for Salazar.

Salazar still has a lot in her favor, including a track record of overperforming in her reelections.

But she has also been criticized recently by some fellow Republicans for her bipartisan immigration bill, the Dignity Act, which they have labeled as mass amnesty. Salazar has forcefully rejected that claim.

She also has a potential Democratic opponent, retired CBS Miami news anchor Eliott Rodriguez, who could make this election closer than 2022 or 2024.

“What makes this notable is that both candidates are former news anchors and Cuban-American — a contrast we haven’t really seen before,” Covey said. “Early polling suggests that with his name ID, Rodriguez starts out with a meaningful advantage in the primary.”

Rodriguez still needs to win his primary. Until then, a general election match up is purely conjecture.

Nevertheless, the dynamic is worth considering. Two candidates on opposite sides of the aisle with similar backgrounds levels the playing field in ways the GOP may not have been expecting. Both Salazar and Rodriguez have name recognition.

Florida politics has a way of humbling even the most seasoned candidates. It wasn’t long ago that Democrats thought Miami-Dade County was a stronghold. Republicans dismantled that assumption by investing in off-cycle voter engagement and then turning voters out on Election Day.

But political gains are never permanent. Each cycle requires the same level of investment if the GOP wants to keep Miami-Dade red.

For Salazar, the rating shift should sharpen her focus on the issues that voters care about such as affordability. Campaigns that are disciplined in their focus tend to win.

Salazar’s campaign sent me a statement saying that she “has been re-elected by double digits in the last two cycles, demonstrating her understanding of the district’s needs and her unwavering commitment to meeting them.”

We’ll find out in November if voters agree. As Covey noted, “Democrats have a better shot at making this race competitive than they did in 2022 or 2024. At the same time, Democrats have a recent history of underestimating Republican strength in these kinds of districts.”

Republicans should take note. And Salazar should remember that the voters who sent her to Congress in the last cycle aren’t obliged to do it again. She should be campaigning like she’s 10 points down.

Mary Anna Mancuso is a member of the Miami Herald Editorial Board. Her email: mmancuso@miamiherald.com