New storm could form near Florida as Humberto strengthens in open ocean
.png "A tropical wave near Florida is forecast to form into a tropical depression either late Friday or over the weekend.")
The tropical wave to watch for Florida has even higher chances of forming soon and more long-range models suggested on Thursday that it could strengthen near the Bahamas or off the coast of Florida.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Humberto is chugging along in the open Atlantic, where it could become a major hurricane as early as Sunday.
While Humberto’s latest track at 5 p.m. from the National Hurricane Center continues to steer it clear of the Florida coast, the tropical wave dropping rain over the Dominican Republic is looking more likely to become an issue for the somewhere along Southeast Coast.
The Miami office of the National Weather Service noted early Thursday that it’s “too soon to determine what impacts (if any) will occur here locally in South Florida.”
At 8 p.m. Thursday, the hurricane center kept its chances of development at 80% chance in the next two days and a 90% chance within the next seven. Forecasters said it’s likely to strengthen into a tropical depression late Friday or over the weekend.
“While there is significant uncertainty in the long-range track and intensity of the system, the chances of wind, rainfall, and storm surge impacts for a portion of the southeast U.S. coast are increasing,” they warned.
If the tropical wave does strengthen intro a tropical storm, it would be named Imelda.
“We’re expecting a northward to northwestern motion of this system after it becomes a tropical depression,” said Michael Brennan, director of the hurricane center, in a video update Thursday afternoon.
Humberto’s path appears more certain, but the tropical wave’s future depends heavily on what shape it’s in when it finishes crossing the mountains of Haiti and the Dominican Republic in the next day or so.
“Then the question is: where does it go. Lots of spread in the guidance with it either coming in to the southeast coast or getting close enough then heading out. Hopefully this gets more clear in the coming days,” wrote the Weather Channel’s Jim Cantore on X Thursday morning.
As of Thursday morning, the latest runs of the major weather models — also known as “spaghetti models” — continue to suggest that Humberto and the tropical wave could develop alongside each other and follow parallel paths along the Southeast Coast.
But forecasters said that two systems in close proximity to each other could affect each other, in a process known as the “Fujiwhara effect.” There’s a chance that the more powerful Humberto could swallow up the weaker storm, potentially steering impacts away from the Southeast Coast.
Or, the two could “dance” around each other, forecasters said, in a process they also call binary interaction.
READ MORE: Dueling tropical systems could see ‘Fujiwhara effect.’ What does that mean for Florida?
“Still much to unravel here,” Cantore posted.
Miami Herald staff writer Devoun Cetoute contributed to this report.
This story was originally published September 25, 2025 at 8:13 AM.
