New storm, to be named Gabrielle, likely to soon form in Atlantic. What models show
.png "The hurricane center is tracking two systems in the Atlantic, neither which pose any immediate threats to Florida.")
It’s finally starting to look like September in the Atlantic, with the tropical systems to watch this week.
While neither poses any immediate threats to Florida, one system is right on the cusp of forming into a tropical depression or storm (potentially named Gabrielle).
As of Tuesday morning, the National Hurricane Center once again upped the system’s chances of development to 90% in the next two to seven days. Forecasters said it's likely to form in the next day or two as it heads west-northwestward across the Atlantic.
The majority of long-range computer models (also called spaghetti models) suggest that the storm will follow a familiar track this season — a curve north that steers it clear of the Caribbean and Florida. This could pose a threat to Bermuda on Monday or Tuesday of next week, however.
“Plenty of time to watch this system for any potential impacts to the United States or offshore,” said NHC Warning Coordination Meteorologist Robbie Berg on a video update posted by the hurricane center Tuesday morning.
Tuesday morning, the hurricane center also added a new spot to watch to its map. The newly emerged tropical wave has a 20% chance of development in the next seven days and no chance of development in the next two days, according to the NHC.
Forecasters said “some slow development of this system is possible” toward the end of the week as it moves west, but any system that follows the more well developed wave in front of it would likely have to contend with some storm unfriendly dry air and wind shear, slicing into its chances of formation.
“This has a low shot of development during the next week but plenty of time to watch that one,” said John Cangialosi, senior hurricane specialist at the NHC, on the video update.
READ MORE: This brief lull in hurricanes could be a glimpse of the future. But it won’t last
This story was originally published September 16, 2025 at 8:40 AM.
