Hurricane

Hurricane Erin likely to steer wide of Florida but we may still feel some impacts

Hurricane Erin’s high winds are not expected to reach Florida, but swells likely will.
Hurricane Erin’s high winds are not expected to reach Florida, but swells likely will. NHC

While it’s looking very likely that Hurricane Erin will avoid landfall in Florida, the Sunshine State will likely still feel some effects — mainly in rougher coastal waters.

Experts say it’s too soon to know exactly what Florida could see from what is expected to be a large and powerful hurricane but rough waters and high surf are possible next week. Erin also could bring better weather to South Florida, with less rain.

National Weather Service Miami Meteorologist Donal Harrigan said that swells associated with Erin could begin reaching Florida shores on Wednesday, with a peak on Thursday or Friday. That could push waves 3 to 5 feet higher than normal in some spots on the central and north Florida coast.

READ MORE: Erin becomes the season’s first hurricane as it nears Caribbean

“The Bahamas block a lot of our wave impacts, so there’s a very narrow channel where it can run north,” he said. “Usually from Palm Beach northward, they get the greatest impact.”

Erin could also make conditions rough for sailors offshore, and make rip currents more likely at some Florida beaches.

As for rain, Harrigan said South Florida likely won’t see any from Erin. Instead, South Florida may get some dry air from the north, giving us a week of less humid — but still hot — weather with few rainstorms.

“Normally, when the storms swerve early like that, we get on the west side of it, which blows air from the north,” he said. “We may get a period of drying toward the end of the week. It’s hard to tell.”

Harrigan also said Hurricane Erin will likely be too far from Florida for anyone in the state to feel gusts of its high winds.

With days to go before Hurricane Erin comes closest to Florida, forecasters continue to warn that things could change and impacts could worsen or lessen.

“While there is still uncertainty in what impacts might occur in portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda next week, the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the western Atlantic basin next week continues to increase,” the National Hurricane Center wrote in its 5 a.m. discussion on Friday.

Alex Harris
Miami Herald
Alex Harris is the lead climate change reporter for the Miami Herald’s climate team, which covers how South Florida communities are adapting to the warming world. Her beat also includes environmental issues and hurricanes. She attended the University of Florida.
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