Hurricane

Cat 2 Hurricane Rafael still pummeling Cuba, Florida Keys as it moves into the Gulf

Hurricane Rafael crossed Cuba and weakened to a Category 2 storm on Wednesday night.
Hurricane Rafael crossed Cuba and weakened to a Category 2 storm on Wednesday night. NHC

Hurricane Rafael, a strong category 2 storm, has moved through Cuba on Wednesday night and is now heading toward the southeastern Gulf of Mexico .

As of the 8 p.m. update, Rafael was about 60 miles west of Havana and 130 miles southwest of Key West.

A few hours earlier, Mariel, Cuba reported sustained winds of 80 mph with a peak gust of 115 mph as the eye passed nearby. The island nation has recently been struggling with prolonged power outages.

Life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds and flash flooding are still affecting portions of western Cuba.

The lower and middle Florida Keys are also seeing tropical-storm-force wind gusts, one recorded at 66 mph at Sand Key.

The Florida Keys remain under a tropical storm warning

Recent track shifts have moved Rafael’s future track further from Florida, sparing the peninsula. Chances for sustained tropical-storm-force winds in South Florida have dropped below 1%, according to the Miami office of the National Weather Service.

Up to an inch of rain may fall on the state through Thursday, the NWS said.

Forecasters expect the storm to see little change in strength in the next day or so as it moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Once in the Gulf, forecasters are confident Rafael will weaken somewhat, but exactly how much — or where it could end up making landfall — is still up in the air.

The latest forecast hooks Rafael toward Mexico and weakening to a tropical storm on Sunday.

As of 8 p.m., Rafael had 105 mph maximum sustained winds and was headed northwest at 14 mph.

Chances are slowly rising for the disturbance near Haiti to develop into a tropical depression in the next few days.
Chances are slowly rising for the disturbance near Haiti to develop into a tropical depression in the next few days. NHC

Elsewhere in the Caribbean, forecasters are also watching a tropical disturbance that could form north of Haiti in the next week. As of 7 p.m. Wednesday, the hurricane center gave the system a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression in the next 7 days and a 20% chance of developing in the next two days.

“Some gradual development of this system is possible toward the end of the week and into the weekend while it moves near or to the north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, and approaches the Southeast Bahamas,” forecasters wrote.

Miami Herald staff writer Milena Malaver contributed to this report.

This story was originally published November 6, 2024 at 10:26 AM.

Alex Harris
Miami Herald
Alex Harris is the lead climate change reporter for the Miami Herald’s climate team, which covers how South Florida communities are adapting to the warming world. Her beat also includes environmental issues and hurricanes. She attended the University of Florida.
Devoun Cetoute
Miami Herald
Miami Herald Cops and Breaking News Reporter Devoun Cetoute covers a plethora of Florida topics, from breaking news to crime patterns. He was on the breaking news team that won a Pulitzer Prize in 2022. He’s a graduate of the University of Florida, born and raised in Miami-Dade. Theme parks, movies and cars are on his mind in and out of the office.
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