Hurricane

How much storm surge will Hurricane Idalia bring to Florida? See the risk by area

Most of Florida’s Gulf Coast is under a storm surge warning, with some parts of the coast under a storm surge watch as strengthening Hurricane Idalia nears the state.
Most of Florida’s Gulf Coast is under a storm surge warning, with some parts of the coast under a storm surge watch as strengthening Hurricane Idalia nears the state. National Hurricane Center

Most of Florida’s Gulf Coast is under a storm surge warning, with some parts of the coast under a storm surge watch as strengthening Hurricane Idalia nears the state.

Storm surge is rising water pushed onto land by a storm’s wind, and above or beyond the regular tide levels an area experiences, according to the National Hurricane Center. Flooding from storm surge depends on several factors, including a storm’s track, strength, speed and size.

It’s a storm’s most dangerous threat.

So, which part of the state will see the most storm surge?

READ MORE: King Tide timing raises Hurricane Idalia’s flood threat for Florida Gulf Coast

Here’s what forecasters say:

Which part of Florida will see the most storm surge?

The National Hurricane Center in its Tuesday advisory said it expects “catastrophic impacts from storm surge inundation of 12 to 16 feet above ground level and destructive waves are expected somewhere between the Wakulla/Jefferson County line and Yankeetown, Florida.”

“Life-threatening storm surge inundation is likely elsewhere along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials,” the hurricane center said.

A storm surge warning is in effect from Englewood north to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay. A storm surge watch is in effect for Bonita Beach north to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbor. A watch also remains for the mouth of St. Mary’s River to South Santee River in South Carolina; the Beaufort Inlet to Drum Inlet in North Carolina; and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers in North Carolina.

What about other parts of Florida?

See the map below for the hurricane center’s peak storm surge prediction.

The hurricane center is now predicting even more storm surge for the Apalachee Bay region of Florida at up to 16 feet.
The hurricane center is now predicting even more storm surge for the Apalachee Bay region of Florida at up to 16 feet. NHC
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This story was originally published August 29, 2023 at 1:14 PM.

Michelle Marchante
Miami Herald
Michelle Marchante covers the pulse of healthcare in South Florida and also the City of Coral Gables. Before that, she covered the COVID-19 pandemic, hurricanes, crime, education, entertainment and other topics in South Florida for the Herald as a breaking news reporter. She recently won first place in the health reporting category in the 2025 Sunshine State Awards for her coverage of Steward Health’s bankruptcy. An investigative series about the abrupt closure of a Miami heart transplant program led Michelle and her colleagues to be recognized as finalists in two 2024 Florida Sunshine State Award categories. She also won second place in the 73rd annual Green Eyeshade Awards for her consumer-focused healthcare stories and was part of the team of reporters who won a 2022 Pulitzer Prize for the Miami Herald’s breaking news coverage of the Surfside building collapse. Michelle graduated with honors from Florida International University and was a 2025 National Press Foundation Covering Workplace Mental Health fellow and a 2020-2021 Poynter-Koch Media & Journalism fellow.  Support my work with a digital subscription
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