Will a depression form in Caribbean Sea? The latest forecast increases the odds
Saturday’s tropics watch focuses on two disturbances in the Atlantic. One of them has a better than even chance of turning into a tropical depression by Halloween.
The system with a high depression chance carried disorganized showers and thunderstorms, according to the National Hurricane Center’s advisory at 8 p.m.
Forecasters expect the system will turn into a tropical depression by early next week while moving west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph over the central Caribbean Sea. As of Saturday afternoon, the system, colored orange on the map, is not a threat to Florida.
“Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti through this weekend,” the hurricane center said.
The system, called Invest 95L by the hurricane center, isn’t going to affect Florida after this weekend, either, according to WPLG meteorologist Michael Lowry. The mass of wet weather is heading toward Central America.
“Blocking high pressure anchored firmly over the Gulf of Mexico isn’t going to let the system anywhere close to Florida or the mainland U.S., so this won’t be a concern for us stateside,” Lowry wrote on his Eye on the Tropics blog.
READ MORE: Halloween weekend has glorious South Florida weather — but there is a howler out there
In its 8 p.m. advisory, the hurricane center said the system has a 50% chance of formation through the next 48 hours and a 70% chance through the next five days.
The other disturbance was producing some shower and thunderstorm activity about 70 miles west-northwest of Bermuda as it interacted with a nearby frontal system, according to the center.
Upper-level winds are forecast to increase over the system through Saturday night, decreasing chances of further development.
Forecasters say the system has a 10% chance of formation through the next two to five days. It is also not a threat to Florida.
What’s the next storm name?
Lisa is the next name on the list for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.
This story was originally published October 28, 2022 at 6:54 AM.
