Tropical Depression Grace forecast to arrive in Haiti on Monday with heavy rainfall
Tropical Depression Grace, which was downgraded earlier Sunday from a tropical storm, continued to move west in the Caribbean — aiming for the Dominican Republic and Haiti as forecasts call for heavy rainfall that could lead to mudslides in the earthquake-ravaged nation.
The National Hurricane Center said in its 8 p.m. advisory that Grace is forecast to arrive early Monday in Hispaniola, the island shared by the two countries, and produce heavy rainfall that could cause flooding.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the entire coast of the Dominican Republic and the entire coast of Haiti, according to the advisory.
Grace’s cone showed that it could skirt the area around St. Louis du Sud in southwestern Haiti, where a 7.2 magnitude earthquake struck Saturday. At least 1,297 people were confirmed dead on Sunday night, and 30,250 families were homeless following the strong quake that toppled buildings in the southwestern peninsula.
Haiti is expected to get as much as eight inches of rain and isolated maximum rainfall of 15 inches in some coastal areas, making disaster response even more challenging as government agencies scramble to find survivors amid shortages of potable water and shelter.
The Hurricane Center said Sunday afternoon that Grace was bringing heavy rains to the Virgin Islands, which could lead to flash urban flooding. Across Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti, heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, with the potential for mudslides. Tropical Depression Grace spent most of the day Sunday moving toward the west at about 15 miles per hour and continued at that speed.
“On the forecast track, Grace will move over Hispaniola on Monday, near or over eastern Cuba on Tuesday, and near or over west-central Cuba on Wednesday,” the advisory said.
Grace whizzed south of Puerto Rico on Sunday afternoon, with bands of rain going over the island. The system was scattered and disorganized, said San Juan-based National Weather Service meteorologist Gabriel Lojero, making it extremely difficult for experts to locate and track the storm’s center.
“The trajectory has been very erratic as it moves towards the northeast of the Caribbean Sea, towards the area of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands,” said Lojero.
The U.S. Virgin Islands got about three inches of rain, while eastern Puerto Rico saw up to two inches. In Lajas, a town in southwestern Puerto Rico, wind gusts of 45 miles per hour were recorded, but sustained winds reached only about 30 mph across the rest of the island.
Lojero said that even if the system has weakened, “the threat of rain continued” on Sunday night, especially as new bands of rain crossed over areas with already saturated ground. Most of the island’s coast is also at a high risk of rip currents.
“We could see flooding, especially throughout the south and eastern portions of Puerto Rico, as well as landslides,” he said.
On the forecast track, Grace could gain some strength before reaching Hispaniola on Monday morning and possibly dump as much as eight inches of rain as it moves over the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Isolated maximum total rainfall could reach 15 inches across southern terrain areas in Hispaniola, the advisory said.
NOAA’s hurricane hunter planes were investigating Grace on Sunday afternoon, trying to assess the system’s potential for organization — there was no visible center — and how much disruption the dry air and wind shear could produce.
Tropical Storm Fred
Meanwhile, disorganized Fred strengthened early Sunday in the Gulf of Mexico. Warnings were posted for the northern Gulf Coast.
A storm surge warning is now in effect along the Florida coast east of Steinhatchee River to Yankeetown. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/Jefferson County line, while a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Panhandle from the Alabama/Florida border to Navarre.
Fred had fallen apart Saturday morning as it moved into the Gulf of Mexico just as South Floridians began casting a nervous eye toward Tropical Storm Grace.
The National Hurricane Center on Saturday downgraded Fred from a tropical depression to a disorganized wave with sustained winds of 35 miles per hour. Forecasters also discontinued a tropical storm warning for the Keys.
Tropical storm watches, warnings in effect for Grace
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:
▪ Entire coast of the Dominican Republic
▪ Entire coast of Haiti
This story was originally published August 15, 2021 at 4:15 PM.
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