Fred soaking Cuba, Florida Keys as Tropical Storm Grace forms and threatens Puerto Rico
By Michelle Marchante ,
Gwen Filosa ,
David Ovalle and
Howard Cohen
South Florida remained under a flood watch through late Sunday and a tropical storm warning remained in effect for parts of the Florida Keys — but there was also a growing sense of relief across the region about barely-holding-it-together Tropical Depression Fred.
At 8 a.m. Saturday, the National Hurricane Center still projected Fred to travel up the Gulf of Mexico with most of Florida outside the cone of concern, with the exception of the Panhandle, which could see Fred’s landfall sometime Monday.
Forecasters said it is still likely to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico, possibly becoming a tropical storm again on Saturday night or Sunday morning. For South Florida, the stormwas expected to amount to no more than a soggy weekend.
In Key West, likely to feel some of the first effects, some tours and events were being canceled but tourists out on the street said they had no plans of packing up.
“It’s just going to be more of an adventure,” said Kristen Marciniec, 47, from behind the wheel of a rented golf cart with Faith Morin, 37, both from Massachusetts. “We’ve talked to locals. They’re not too concerned.”
Fred, though disorganized, was dropping heavy rains across Cuba and the Keys, and remained a concern for South Florida. With the shift west in track, forecasters dropped projections a bit but heavy and widespread downpours were still expected — from 3 to 6 inches and up to 8 in spots — from through early Sunday. That much rain can be trouble for flood-prone areas.
Otherwise, the winds could be blustery at times but forecasters said there was only a small chance that the Florida Keys and west coast could see tropical-storm-level gusts.
And here we have Tropical Storm #Grace, the 7th named storm of the season. This is 20 days ahead of the average 7th named storm formation date. Others seasons to reach this mark by August 13th during the satellite era: 2020, 2017, 2005, 1995. pic.twitter.com/uUmwl6Uc2j
“It’s going to be a wet weekend,” said Robert Molleda, a severe weather expert for the service in Miami. “It certainly doesn’t look like a good weekend to be out.”
As of the 8 a.m. Saturday advisory, Fred remained disorganized about 125 miles south of Key West, with sustained winds of about 35 miles per hour, while dousing parts of Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas with heavy rain. It was moving west-northwest at 13 mph and should move west of the lower Florida Keys Saturday, according to the hurricane center.
On the forecast track, after its move near the lower Florida Keys on Saturday, Fred could pass near or west of the west coast of the Florida peninsula Saturday night and Sunday.
Fred could see some additional strengthening before making its final landfall in the Florida Panhandle. The tropical storm should then weaken as it moves inland and crawls up Florida’s west coast, the hurricane center says. It should be a depression again by the time it reaches Alabama or Georgia.
On Friday, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis issued a State of Emergency order for Bay, Calhoun, Citrus, Dixie, Escambia, Franklin, Gadsdsen, Gilchrist, Gulf, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Leon, Levy, Liberty, Manatee, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Taylor, Wakulla, Walton and Washington counties.
Arrival time of tropical storm-force winds from Fred in the 5 a.m. Saturday, Aug. 14, 2021 advisory. National Hurricane Center
Tropical Storm Grace 8 a.m. Saturday, Aug. 14, 2021 advisory map. National Hurricane Center
As Fred slogged over Cuba, Tropical Storm Grace formed Saturday morning, with Hispaniola in the cone of concern.
Grace is forecast to move over the Leeward Islands Saturday night and then over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday before going over the Dominican Republic on Monday.
On Saturday morning, according to the 8 a.m. advisory from the hurricane center, it was about 355 miles east of the Leeward Islands with maximum sustained wind of about 40 mph. It was moving west at 22 mph.
Several tropical storm warnings and watches have been put into effect.
A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the British Virgin Islands in the 8 a.m. advisory.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:
▪ Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat
▪ Saba and Sint Eustatius
▪ Sint Maarten
▪ St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
▪ U.S. Virgin Islands
▪ Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
▪ British Virgin Islands
Storm preparedness
For now, governments, businesses and residents on Friday across Florida were preparing for an expected deluge from Fred.
At Zoo Miami, workers were storing dry food like grain and hay, and monitoring water levels in exhibit pools and moats. Officials may close the zoo Saturday if the rain is forecast to get too bad.
Long-planned pool parties, camping trips and outdoor charity events got axed. Boaters bid adieu to their plans: Saturday’s Bonito Blast, a Treasure Coast fishing tournament that raises money for wounded veterans, was canceled.
In Key West, tour companies, like Peak Charters, were halting weekend excursions, just in case. “We should be expected rain & windy. Nothing too crazy,” the company wrote on its Facebook page, under the hashtag: “#FreakingFred.”
Taylor Freyer, of Sarasota, was in town with a dozen friends to celebrate her 28th birthday on Monday. Fred wasn’t going to ruin their vacation, they said.
“We were going to go on a tiki boat but that got canceled,” Freyer said, as she and her friends were getting ready to ride off on rented scooters. “We’re going lobstering Monday.”
On Miami Beach, some hotels were also taking some precautionary steps, installing barriers to deal with potential flooding.
Cody Lazarz and Denton Wright, workers at the W Hotel on South Beach, install flood protection barriers on the doors of the Oren Salon, on the ground floor of the property along Collins Avenue, on Friday morning, August 13, 2021, in preparation for Tropical Depression Fred, which could strengthen to a Tropical Storm as it nears South Florida. Emily Michot emichot@miamiherald.com
Flooding rain main threat to South Florida, forecasters say
Miami-Dade, Broward and the Keys are in for a wet weekend, with three to seven inches of rain possible starting Friday. The bad weather will stay through the weekend and into Monday, with some isolated areas possibly seeing up to 10 inches of rain. A similar forecast was issued for Central Florida north towards the Big Bend region.
Urban and small stream flooding are possible. Some areas in northern Florida could also see moderate river flooding. Hazardous marine conditions, including a high risk for rip currents across all Atlantic beaches will also be possible through the weekend, especially on Saturday.
8/14 1120AM: Showers and thunderstorms are developing across the region. Heavy rainfall with potential localized flooding where strong squalls move through the area. Gusty winds are also possible with convection today #flwxpic.twitter.com/3LtY3wXEVY
The Florida Keys tropical storm warning is in effect west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. The Florida Bay is also under a warning. Forecasters have also extended the tropical storm watch from Bonita Beach northward to Englewood.
“It should be noted that much of the Florida peninsula is expected to be on the east side of Fred, which is where the heaviest rains and strongest winds will be,” forecaster Jack Beven wrote in his analysis on Friday.
Miami Herald consumer trends reporter Howard Cohen, a 2017 Media Excellence Awards winner, has covered pop music, theater, health and fitness, obituaries, municipal government, breaking news and general assignment. He started his career in the Features department at the Miami Herald in 1991. Cohen is an adjunct professor at the University of Miami School of Communication.Support my work with a digital subscription
Michelle Marchante covers the pulse of healthcare in South Florida and also the City of Coral Gables. Before that, she covered the COVID-19 pandemic, hurricanes, crime, education, entertainment and other topics in South Florida for the Herald as a breaking news reporter. She recently won first place in the health reporting category in the 2025 Sunshine State Awards for her coverage of Steward Health’s bankruptcy. An investigative series about the abrupt closure of a Miami heart transplant program led Michelle and her colleagues to be recognized as finalists in two 2024 Florida Sunshine State Award categories. She also won second place in the 73rd annual Green Eyeshade Awards for her consumer-focused healthcare stories and was part of the team of reporters who won a 2022 Pulitzer Prize for the Miami Herald’s breaking news coverage of the Surfside building collapse. Michelle graduated with honors from Florida International University and was a 2025 National Press Foundation Covering Workplace Mental Health fellow and a 2020-2021 Poynter-Koch Media & Journalism fellow. Support my work with a digital subscription
