Tropical storm watch canceled, but South Florida will feel Depression 19
Tropical Depression 19 on Saturday is on track to dump rain on Florida all day Saturday before re-emerging in the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. The National Hurricane Center said the depression could strengthen into Tropical Storm Sally sometime Saturday evening off Florida’s west coast.
The tropical storm watch issued for South Florida on Friday was canceled early Saturday morning. But the weather service warns that the region is in line to get heavy rain bands and squalls all day, which could lead to flooding and damage.
The depression was the only system pointed at Florida as of Friday’s 11 p.m. update from the National Hurricane Center, but there are six systems kicking around in the Atlantic Basin. That includes two tropical storms, with one of them predicted to become a hurricane over the weekend.
Forecasters said the depression was about 25 miles east of Miami Friday night with 35 mph maximum winds. The latest track forecasts a landfall with near Category 1 wind strength near the Mississippi and Louisiana border on Tuesday afternoon.
The National Weather Service says the “soggy and unsettled weather pattern” may bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. There’s a 70 percent to 80 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday through Sunday.
Rain chances in South Florida
“Questions or concerns about the area of low pressure to our east? That’s OK, it’s hurricane season after all!” the weather service announced cheerfully on Twitter about the local system.
“Plentiful rain and storms are expected over the region this weekend,” the service said, with localized flooding likely and lightning and waterspouts a concern in South Florida and the upper Keys.
Rain chances for much of Friday, including the Keys, are pegged at 50 percent. But that zooms to 80 percent Saturday before dipping to 60 percent Sunday and settling into a 30 percent to 50 percent range into Tuesday.
Rainfall may produce flash flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding in rivers across Central Florida. Central and South Florida are forecast to see 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximums f 5 inches. The western Panhandle is forecast to see 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximums of 6 inches, the National Weather Service said.
CBS4 meteorologist Lissette Gonzalez said “the juicy, unstable atmosphere” will keep Saturday soggy “and linger Sunday and it’s not until Monday when we will see rain chances decrease.”
Friday morning began with sun and spotty showers over parts of South Florida, like Weston, Kendall and the upper Keys, Gonzalez said, adding that we should see highs of 90 degrees before the skies open later in the day.
What about the heat?
The weather service said the heat index will feel about 103 degrees Friday and that rip currents are expected later in the weekend, especially along Palm Beach County beaches.
Once the system sails over South Florida and leaves its lingering showers, temperatures should feel a bit more comfortable, with highs in the mid-80s and dips as low as 79 degrees Friday night and around 80 degrees over the weekend.
Joining systems
Once in the Gulf, tropical depression 19 (or, potentially, Tropical Storm Sally) could join another low-pressure system that was inching its way west and south. Forecasters said that the second system had a 20 percent chance of forming in the next two days and 30 percent in the next five days.
On the other side of the Atlantic, forecasters are tracking two more tropical waves. One had a very high chance of forming in the next five days — 90 percent.
The tropical wave was producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms a few hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands off the west coast of Africa. It was forecast to become a tropical depression within the next few days as it moves west across the Atlantic, according to the hurricane center.
The other tropical wave was forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa this weekend and might turn into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward. Forecasters said it had a 10 percent chance of development in the next 48 hours and a 40 percent chance in the next five days.
The next storm names on the list are Sally and Teddy.
Where are Tropical Storms Paulette and Rene?
Tropical Storm Paulette was on track for a direct hit on Bermuda as a Category 1 hurricane early Monday. As of the 11 p.m. update, the storm was about 750 miles southeast of Bermuda and set to strengthen into a hurricane as soon as Saturday afternoon.
Paulette’s maximum sustained winds were near 70 mph with higher gusts and its tropical-storm-force winds were extending up to 205 miles from the center.
“Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on Sunday and Monday,” forecasters said. “A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge and heavy rainfall on Bermuda beginning Sunday night is becoming more likely.”
Swells generated by Paulette will likely cause “life-threatening surf and rip current conditions” across portions of the Leeward Islands and portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States into the weekend.
After it crosses over Bermuda, the hurricane center predicted Paulette will strengthen to a Category 2 hurricane. A tropical storm watch is now in effect for Bermuda.
As for Tropical Storm Rene, it was on track for a loop-de-loop in the mid-Atlantic and was no longer forecast to become a Category 1 hurricane. As of the 11 p.m. update, Rene’s maximum sustained winds slowed to near 40 mph with higher gusts.
Rene was forecast to continue moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph Friday, make a move toward the northwest Saturday and then begin “a north-northwestward and northward motion” at a slower pace Sunday.
Correction: A previous version of this story incorrectly said Florida was under a tropical storm warning, not a watch.
This story was originally published September 11, 2020 at 8:02 AM.
