Florida still in the cone as Bahamas and Haiti issue tropical storm watches
Puerto Rico and the eastern Caribbean could begin to see heavy rain, high winds and possible “life threatening” flash floods and mudslides from what is expected to become Tropical Storm Isaias on Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center said.
The fast-moving disturbance east of the Antilles is forecast to become the season’s ninth tropical storm.
The latest projections from the National Hurricane Center show the storm could reach South Florida by the weekend, but forecasters stress it’s far too early to predict the storm’s potential impacts.
Tropical storm warnings were issued early Wednesday for the north coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas east to the northern border with the Dominican Republic. Tropical storm watches were also issued Wednesday for the southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island,Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands.
Also still under tropical storm warnings are Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, the U.S. Virgin Islands, the British Virgin Islands, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Anguilla, St. Barthelemy, Dominica and the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucero to the northern border with Haiti.
Where is the storm going?
The center of the disturbance is forecast to move through the southern Leeward Islands during the next few hours, bringing heavy rain and gusty winds with it. It is then forecast to move near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday night, near or over Hispaniola Thursday, and near or over the southeastern Bahamas Friday, according to the hurricane center.
The disturbance’s potential path takes it over Florida on Sunday as a tropical storm with winds around 60 mph, although the hurricane center has not issued predictions on how much rain the region might see.
It is about five miles south of Dominica and 385 miles east-southeast from San Juan, Puerto Rico moving west-northwest at 23 mph. Its maximum sustained winds are at 45 mph, forecasters said in their 5 a.m. advisory Wednesday.
The system still does not have a well-defined center, and forecasters said the storm could be unpredictable over the next few days.
Much depends on how the storm fares after crossing the mountains of Hispaniola, which the current path predicts will happen.
“The cyclone will probably take some time to recover after moving over the very high mountains of Hispaniola, and some of the guidance after that time shows an increase in southwesterly shear over the Straits of Florida that could limit the potential of the cyclone,” forecasters wrote. “Simply put, there are a lot of hurdles in the system’s way, so it is best to stay on the conservative side at the moment and continue to stress the large uncertainty after it leaves the Caribbean.”
The storm’s current path would take it over Puerto Rico and the Bahamas, two areas still struggling to recover after devastating Category 5 storms. Hurricane Maria trashed Puerto Rico’s power grid in 2017, and officials worry any storm could threaten it again.
On Tuesday, 100,000 customers lost power in Puerto Rico a day before the storm was predicted to cross the island.
The Bahamas’ brush with Hurricane Dorian in September left the northern end of the archipelago in rough shape, and leaders were bracing themselves for the impact of another storm.
How much rain, wind will it bring to the Caribbean?
The storm could bring 50 to 60 mph winds, heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin Islands could see three to six inches of rain.
Puerto Rico could see three to six inches of rain, with some areas seeing up to 10 inches of rain. The Dominican Republic, northern Haiti and the Turks and Caicos could experience three to six inches of rain, with some spots seeing up to eight inches of rain.
NOAA has predicted this will be an active hurricane season, with 13 to 19 named storms. There have been eight named storms so far this season, a record reached earlier in the season than ever before, according to Colorado State University Meteorologist Philip Klotzbach.
This story was originally published July 28, 2020 at 8:49 AM.
