The National Hurricane Center’s 11 a.m. Wednesday advisory is looking at two disturbances in the Atlantic, two tropical storms, and, of course, Dorian.
Dorian is now about 100 miles east of the coast of Northeast Florida and moving north/northwest at 9 mph with winds at 105 mph.
Tropical Storm Fernand
Meantime, Tropical Storm Fernand’s 45 mph winds are bringing heavy rain inland over northeastern Mexico and deep south Texas.
The current threat? Flash flooding over portions of northeastern Mexico as a tropical storm warning remains for Puerto Altamira to the mouth of the Rio Grande River, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Tropical storm force winds will be felt over land by 2 p.m. Wednesday.
Fernand, moving west, northwest at 8 mph, is not a threat to Florida or the Bahamas.
Tropical Storm Gabrielle
Tropical Storm Gabrielle is strengthening in the eastern Atlantic about 715 miles west, northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
According to the 11 a.m. Wednesday advisory, maximum sustained winds are up to 50 mph — 10 mph greater than they were in the 5 a.m. advisory — and the storm is moving northwest at 9 mph, a slight dip from earlier in the morning.
Tropical storm-force winds from Gabrielle extend up to 140 miles from the center.
But Gabrielle is not a threat to any land so there are no coastal warnings or watches and this movement is expected to continue through Saturday. By the weekend, forward speed should increase but it will still be far from any land mass on Monday morning.
Gabrielle, too, will not threaten Florida or the Bahamas.
Disturbances #1 and #2
Now, the two disturbances.
Disturbance #1 is a small area of low pressure just east of Bermuda that is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Formation chances into a tropical depression over the next two and five days is the same: 50%.
But this one is moving northeastward away from Bermuda. And upper-level winds are forecast to keep this one from becoming a hurricane — and it’s not heading toward Florida.
A tropical wave is forecast to emerge later Wednesday over the far eastern tropical Atlantic west of Africa. Environmental conditions are 60% favorable for Disturbance #2 to develop later this week and become a tropical depression sometime over the weekend or Monday as it moves west to northwest.
Still way too soon to assess its threat to land.
But do note, hurricane supply hoarders and non-hoarders alike: Hurricane season doesn’t end until Nov. 30 — more than two months from now.