Weather alert: Your July 4 activities may be threatened. What the forecast says
You may hear booms and see flashes in the sky on this Fourth of July weekend.
But it may not be fireworks.
Thunder, lightning and dousing rain are in the forecast for Florida’s holiday hot spots, including Miami, the Keys, Orlando and Sanibel-Captiva.
Storm chances run between 50% and 80% in most of these popular destinations, with South Florida and Orlando near the top of the percentage scale.
Global models released by the National Weather Service in Miami on Thursday suggest a possible two to three inches of rain, maybe more in spots, could fall through the weekend. Scattered and numerous thunderstorms may pound us daily. Some of the heavier rains could yield flooding, especially over the eastern metro areas.
Blame it on a potential tropical system that could challenge North Florida in the next week, according to the National Hurricane Center. Even though the system, if it forms, would be far from South Florida, a stalled front could drag wetness across the state.
MORE: South Florida could get soaked this weekend as tropical system chances rise
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Here’s a rundown:
Miami-Fort Lauderdale area
The crummy weather in South Florida began Wednesday with an 80% chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day, with temperatures running between 82 and 86.
▪ Thursday, when your attention is on packing the car for a road trip for the three-day weekend, features a 70% chance of storms from 2 p.m. onward.
▪ Friday, Independence Day, when fireworks are scheduled from Coral Gables to Key Biscayne, Hialeah to South Beach and Miami Springs to Fort Lauderdale, the rain chances are 70% during the day and 50% at night, as of the Wednesday weather service forecast. On Wednesday, the city of Pembroke Pines, citing impending weather, canceled its annual Fourth of July festivities and fireworks display scheduled for the Pines Recreation Center.
▪ Saturday and Sunday bring more of the same — 70% Saturday and 50% Sunday.
▪ Relief comes after we head back to work on Monday, but unsettled weather will still bring a 30% to 50% rain chance into Tuesday.
Florida Keys
Key West, we like you a bit more this holiday weekend. Oh, you’re going to give us a 50-50 chance of disappointment on July 4 and 5, with lingering 30% rain or storms Sunday. But 50% is better than 70% unless you’re a yard plant.
Orlando
Donald Duck might be OK with the 80% storm chance Thursday through Independence Day Friday and the lingering 70% Saturday and Sunday soakers. People heading to the resort town with tickets to Disney or Universal in hand might gripe.
Sanibel-Captiva
With The Bubble Room set for its reopening on July 14 and The Mucky Duck’s owner telling CBS he hopes to have his island favorite restaurant rebuilt by the fall and in time for Christmas, signs of Captiva and Sanibel’s rebirth after last year’s twin hurricanes Helene and Milton hearten.
While these popular Florida West Coast attractions aren’t ready for July 4, we still know that some of you plan to head to one of Florida’s loveliest beach getaways for the holiday weekend. That string of 80% to 90% breezy and thunderstormy days in the forecast from Wednesday through Sunday are not cause for celebrations.
Tampa-Ste. Pete
An almost certain chance of thunderstorms and showers at 80% to 90% from Wednesday through Sunday. West Central Florida could see some of the wettest weather, WPLG hurricane specialist Michael Lowry wrote in his Eye on the Tropics blog. He said Florida’s Gulf Coast and its I-75 corridor from just north of Tampa southward to Naples could see the heavy rains beginning Thursday. The wetness would spread over much of Florida’s peninsula for the Fourth of July holiday Friday.
This story was originally published July 2, 2025 at 1:13 PM.
