Hurricane

South Florida is in for a wet weekend as tropical system chances rise

Development chances are up to 60% for the tropical system near northeast Florida.
Development chances are up to 60% for the tropical system near northeast Florida. NHC

Florida is in for a wet weekend as the chances that a tropical system will develop continue to climb.

The National Hurricane Center raised the likelihood of development for a potential system near the northeast coast of Florida to 60% in the next seven days — up from 40% the day before — and gave the system a 30% chance of strengthening in the next day or two.

Over the last few days, the hurricane center has nudged the blob on the map, representing where it believes the system could form, from across the north half of Florida to a decidedly Atlantic position. Storm models suggest that if something does form, it could head north along the southeast coast of the U.S.

But South Florida is still likely to get soaked.

In a Thursday morning update, the Miami office of the National Weather Service said that “regardless of the final outcome,” South Floridians can expect “rounds of showers, with global models depicting widespread rain across (South Florida).”

Models suggest around 2 to 3 inches of rain could fall throughout the weekend, with scattered and numerous thunderstorms daily.

“There is potential for periods of heavy rain resulting in localized urban flooding, especially over the east coast metro areas,” NWS said.

At its highest, forecasters predict some areas could see 4 to 5 inches of rain.

This story was originally published July 3, 2025 at 8:31 AM.

Alex Harris
Miami Herald
Alex Harris is the lead climate change reporter for the Miami Herald’s climate team, which covers how South Florida communities are adapting to the warming world. Her beat also includes environmental issues and hurricanes. She attended the University of Florida.
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