Worried about a tropical storm? A deluge is coming to Miami and the Keys — no matter what
Are you ready for a lot of rain?
South Florida, better get ready. As your mother might have warned you when you were little and you misbehaved: “You’re going to get it!”
Regardless of the behavior of a tropical disturbance — remnants of Pacific Hurricane Agatha — that could turn into Alex, the first storm of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, the message is the same.
Florida could face Tropical Storm Alex as soon as Saturday. Tropical storm warnings and watches have been issued for South Florida, West Florida, the Keys and Cuba.
READ MORE: A tropical storm watch has been issued for South Florida, and the big concern is rain
“The main message is that regardless of whether this disturbance becomes a name system or not, the impact across South Florida remains the same: The main concern is the influx of moisture to the area and the heavy rainfall that will be accompanying whether it’s a named system or not. It doesn’t really matter. The impacts here will be the heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flash flooding,” said Larry Kelly, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Miami.
On Thursday morning, Kelly said the track of the system, whether it’s a little farther north or a little farther south, is still uncertain. That path can play a significant factor in how much rainfall South Florida and the Keys will see come Friday and Saturday.
The National Hurricane Center on Thursday put the blob of disturbed weather near the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, with heavy rains over the Yucatan Peninsula and the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
The system was moving slowly north over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
“On the forecast track, the system should move across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through Friday night, and then move across the southern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday,” the National Hurricane Center said in its 11 p.m. update.
Residents in Cuba, the Florida Keys, Florida’s Peninsula and the northwestern Bahamas are advised to monitor its progress. Tropical storm watches or warnings have been issued.
The Florida Keys, Florida Bay and the west coast of Florida (south of Englewood to Card Sound Bridge) have been upgraded to a tropical storm warning, as of the center’s 11 p.m. advisory.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for the west coast of Florida (from south of the Middle of Longboat Key to Englewood), the east coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line to Card Sound Bridge, Lake Okeechobee, Northwestern Bahamas, the Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinardel Rio, and the Isle of Youth.
South Florida is likely to see about four to eight inches of rain on Friday and Saturday, with some small areas seeing up to a foot, according to the hurricane center.
This will likely lead to flash flooding in streets, homes, and parks across the region.
According to the weather service bureaus in Miami and Key West, rain chances are 90% in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach, and 80% in the Keys Friday. Some of the storms could have waterspouts, frequent lightning and gusty winds of about 14 mph.
Wind gusts could increase to 25 mph on Friday, and higher in spots.
On Saturday, the rain chances are near 100% with potential wind gusts up to 55 mph. In the Keys, the rain and storm percentages are at near 100% as well, and wind gusts range from 30 to 40 mph.
Kelly also said a tornado threat exists amid the severe weather. A few tornadoes could pass through South Florida and the Keys as the system moves through the areas.
“But the main threat is going to be the heavy rainfall,” he said.
When will the weather be at its worst?
The moisture begins to arrive to the area early Friday afternoon, and the worst time of it looks to be later Friday afternoon into the evening and into Saturday, Kelly said.
There may be some showers or thunderstorms ahead of the worst weather, regardless of the disturbance’s development, as there are thunderstorms left over from Agatha. “And the Caribbean area this time of year we usually have showers and storms, anyway. We have a dip in the jet stream that’s going to send the moisture our way,” Kelly said.
“As we get to Saturday night things should be exiting the region and the rain chances should be going down,” he said.
Flash flood warnings will be issued if and when they become necessary for a region.
The Friday afternoon rush hour commute won’t be fun. Some roadways could be swamped. But there might be some relief.
Is the county prepared?
The South Florida Water Management District has been lowering its network of canals all week ahead of the incoming storm. Smaller canals are a few inches lower than normal, and some of the big ones are as much as a foot lower.
“The canals are really in good shape at this point,” said district spokesman Randy Smith.
Giant reservoirs for additional floodwater — like the C4 impoundment area — are ready for spillover, and Smith said the district’s army of stormwater pumps and canal gates are functioning and prepared for a storm.
The district’s aging flood control system stretches from Orlando to the Keys, and although the district itself says the system isn’t prepared for sea level rise or stronger storms of the future, it is designed to handle six to eight inches of rain in a day.
As of Thursday morning, the water management district expects between four to eight inches of rain this weekend.
“This would not likely present a problem for us if we get eight inches; it really just depends on the location of where the rain hits us and how fast the rain hits us,” Smith said. “Eight inches over 48 hours is very different than eight inches over two hours.”
What about beaches?
Are you really thinking about swimming?
Know this: Hazardous marine and beach conditions conditions are likely Friday into the weekend. A small craft advisory could be issued Friday afternoon for winds increasing to 20 to 25 knots for all Florida Keys coastal waters with seas expected to build as high as five to eight feet in the Florida Straits.
Miami Herald Reporter Devoun Cetoute contributed to this report.
This story was originally published June 2, 2022 at 12:57 PM.
