Where is Tropical Storm Elsa? Track the latest path as it heads toward Florida
Parts of Florida could feel impacts early this week from Tropical Storm Elsa, which was lashing the Caribbean with heavy rain and strong winds on Sunday.
Elsa, which was downgraded from a Category 1 hurricane Saturday, was located 15 miles west of Cabo Cruz, Cuba, and 110 miles south of Camaguey, Cuba, as of 5 p.m. Sunday. The storm was moving northwest at 14 mph with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph.
Tropical storm-force winds, which range from 39 mph to 73 mph, extend 90 miles from the storm’s center.
“On the forecast track, Elsa will move near or over eastern Cuba today, and approach central Cuba tonight and early Monday,” the National Hurricane Center says. “Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits on Monday and pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday.”
The storm is then expected to track “near or over” parts of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday.
The Florida Keys from ”Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas” are under a tropical storm warning and the Florida Keys from “Craig Key eastward to Ocean Reef” along with Florida Bay are under a tropical storm watch. The west coast of Florida from “Flamingo northward to the Anclote River” are also under a tropical storm watch.
Forecasters say additional watches and warnings will likely be necessary Sunday or Monday and that “interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Elsa.”
A tropical storm warning means tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the area and a tropical storm watch means they are possible within the area.
Forecasters say tropical storm conditions are possible within the warning area in the upper Florida Keys on Monday night and along the west coast of Florida starting Monday and into Tuesday. They’re possible in the remainder of the Florida peninsula Tuesday night through Wednesday morning.
Tropical storm-force winds could reach Florida as early as Monday morning, its track shows.
The Georgia and North and South Carolina coasts could see tropical storm conditions Wednesday and Thursday.
Elsa could dump between 4 and 8 inches of rain on parts of Jamaica, with up to 15 inches possible in isolated areas, forecasters say. Parts of Cuba could see between 5 and 10 inches of rain and the Cayman Islands could get between 3 and 5 inches into Monday.
“Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday,” the NHC says. “Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in isolated flash, urban and minor river flooding.”
Storm surge is also possible in areas under watches and warnings, with between 1 and 2 feet possible from Ocean Reef, Florida, to Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay. Between 1 and 3 feet are possible from Flamingo, Florida, to Bonita Beach, Florida, and between 2 and 4 feet are possible between Bonita Beach and Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay.
The west coast of Florida from from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River is under a storm surge watch, meaning “there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours,” the NHC says.
Swells are expected to increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida on Monday and are forecast to spread “northward along the west coast of Florida Monday night and Tuesday.”
A “couple of tornadoes” are also possible across southern Florida on Monday afternoon and Monday night and into Tuesday, forecasters say.
Elsa is expected to strengthen some before it moves over Cuba but is expected to weaken as its center moves over land. It could then restrengthen as it moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
This story was originally published July 4, 2021 at 10:32 AM.
