Condo collapse crews watching 2 systems. One has a higher development chance
The chances that a disturbance in the western Atlantic strengthens into a tropical depression or more are climbing, but forecasters say another, closer system is likely to remain weaker and disorganized.
As of the National Hurricane Center’s 2 p.m. Wednesday advisory, the easternmost system had a stronger likelihood of forming into a tropical depression within the week, although it’s too soon it tell if either disturbance poses a threat to Florida.
State and local officials are working on a plan so rescue efforts are not hampered at the partially collapsed building in Surfside, near Miami Beach, where 149 people are missing.
The farther system was about 1,300 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands Wednesday afternoon, according to the hurricane center. It’s continuing to show some signs of organization, although it doesn’t yet have a well-defined center.
Forecasters said the system had favorable conditions for development in the next few days as it moves west-northwest at about 20 to 25 mph. The hurricane center also upgraded the forecast to a 70% chance of strengthening into a tropical depression in the next two days and 90% in the next five days.
The hurricane center warned interests in the Lesser Antilles to pay attention to the system, which may reach the region by Friday.
“Advisories on a potential tropical cyclone, accompanied by tropical storm watches for portions of this area, are likely to be issued later today,” forecasters wrote.
The closer tropical wave was a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles and was producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The hurricane center said it had no chance of strengthening anytime within the next five days but will bring some rain to the Lesser Antilles Wednesday night.
As for Tropical Storm Danny, the fourth named storm of the season formed Monday before making landfall in South Carolina. It was a short-lived storm and dissipated over Georgia early Tuesday.
Experts say this much activity in the far eastern Atlantic is unusual this early in the season. If one of these systems does strengthen into the fifth named storm of the season, Elsa, it could potentially be a record-breaker.
Brain McNoldy, a senior research associate at University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School, wrote in a blog post that the earliest fifth named storm was Edouard in 2020 on July 6, followed by Emily on July 11, 2005, two of the most active storm seasons on record.
“We would typically be watching two easterly waves and talking about a potential fifth named storm in late August, not late June!” he wrote.
This story was originally published June 29, 2021 at 7:17 AM.
