Poll: Florida Republicans split between Casey DeSantis, Byron Donalds for governor
A new public poll released on Thursday sends mixed signals to first lady Casey DeSantis should she decide to run for governor in 2026.
The poll, conducted by the University of North Florida, shows that she is slightly ahead of U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds among registered Republican voters. Donalds has been endorsed in the race by President Donald Trump and would be her main opposition in a Republican primary.
But her lead — 32% support compared to his 29% support — is within the margin of error, meaning the Republican gubernatorial primary could be tied or Donalds could even be slightly ahead among these voters.
“Casey DeSantis was an early favorite when we asked about this in fall of 2023,” Michael Binder, who leads the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF that did the poll, said in a press release. But after Trump’s endorsement of Donalds, her lead “has all but disappeared.”
And among Republicans who voted in last year’s primary, Donalds is ahead by 15 points.
Further complicating the matter is the Hope Florida Foundation saga, revealed in a Herald/Times investigative series this spring. According to the poll, two-thirds of Florida Republicans are still unaware of the charity that funneled $10 million from a Medicaid settlement to two-dark money groups that then gave similar amounts to a political committee intent on defeating the recreational marijuana amendment on last year’s ballot.
There’s at least one criminal probe into the transfers of money.
“While their lack of knowledge helps Casey DeSantis now, the Donalds campaign and others are sure to campaign on the scandal and, as Republican voters learn more, she’s likely to lose some support,” said Dr. Sean Freeder, a UNF professor of political science.
Most Republican voters — 57% – said they view the first lady favorably, compared to 43% for Donalds. She has higher name recognition, too. Only 19% of respondents had never heard of her, compared to 40% who had never heard of him.
Here are the groups with whom the first lady leads:
Women
Hispanics and Latinos
North and central Florida voters
Voters under the age of 65
Here are the groups with whom Donalds leads:
Men
Voters over the age of 65
South Florida voters
Voters from the 2024 Florida Republican primary
Former Republican Congressman Matt Gaetz, now a conservative news anchor, had 8% support among respondents. There were still 18% who were undecided.